A.J. Pollock (OF, LAD) - Week 16 Waiver Wire Pickups

3 years ago by Mike Marteny

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BALLER MOVE: Add in all leagues

ROSTERED IN: 49% of leagues

ANALYSIS: We all had high hopes for Pollock coming into the 2021 season. After all, he hit .276 with 16 homers in 55 games last season. He hit .264 with two homers and two steals in April. Not bad, but not what we paid for either. A injury-riddled May in which he only logged 22 at-bats led some to bail on him. The rest jumped off after his .222 mark in June that saw his average dip from a season-high .278 on June 11 all the way to .245 on July 6. Yes, that was only eight days ago. Why the sudden switch?

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The easy answer is that Pollock flipped a switch. He had four homers in four games leading up to the break and has slugged half of his 12 homers on the season in 33 July at-bats. Pollock raised his average 26 points in just four games since July 6. Pollock hit the break with nine hits in four games. How long will this hot streak last? For that we need to look at some metrics.

Pollock's 11.3% barrel percentage is the best of his career so far. The 14.7 degree launch angle only trails his 2016 season in which he only played 12 games. The 47.3% hard hit percentage is easily the best of his career and is in the 82nd percentile of all of baseball. His 32.7 sweet spot percentage was only topped last season. The .269 xBA suggests that he can still hit around his career average of .280. Pollock's xSLG and xwOBA are within 15 points of his actual numbers. His first half slash line of .271/.332/.518 seems sustainable.

Considering that Pollock already has 12 homers at the break, he should set a new career high this season. He hit 20 homers in 2015 and 21 homers in 2018, both with Arizona. The 76 RBI that he logged in 2015 seems safe as his career high, but I'm liking Pollock as a power pickup that wont hurt your average.

If you're looking for the steals potential that Pollock has in his earlier years, it isn't really there anymore. Pollock hasn't stolen a base since April 28 and his sprint speed is down to the 67th percentile. That's still well above average, but it also suggests that he's not going to steal double-digit bags. The Dodgers know how potent their lineup is. They don't want to run out of an inning with a 33-year-old Pollock trying to relive his glory days by stealing bags.

Still, the metrics support a sustainable slash line and considering the career best marks in hard hit% and launch angle, Pollock should set a new career high in homers. Tell me you can't use that on your team for the second half!

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