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The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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Vegas Odds
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-In a minor shocker, Kyle Larson does not have the best implied odds to win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, at 11 percent. He has never won at NHMS, but he does have two recent second place showings. You can never fade him at any track this season, of course. But Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. have the highest implied odds to win the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at 12 percent. I would be banking more on Hamlin, a three-time New Hampshire winner. He has finished second in each of his past two NHMS starts.
-The Research Station gives Matt DiBenedetto a 39 percent chance of finishing in the Top 10, which is the second best odds for any driver priced below $8000 on DraftKings. DiBenedetto starts 14th and is projected to finish 11th, a very strong outlook for a driver in his price range. He is also projected to be only 17 percent rostered. DiBenedetto has finished sixth and fifth in his last two NHMS starts.
Projections
-Kyle Busch is projected to score 67.35 points, the second most of any driver this week. He starts on the pole, and is projected to lead a race-high 61 laps. He is projected to finish fifth, but the outlooks do allow for some variance and he may make a strong push for the win after finishing second at Atlanta last week. Busch has finished in the Top 3 in three of his last five starts at New Hampshire. He is also projected to run a race-high 38 fastest laps.
-Christopher Bell is projected to score 44.05 points, the most of any driver below $9000, and when you consider he is priced at just $7700, he leaps off the Google Sheet as the top bargain play. Bell has finished fourth, seventh and ninth in his three most recent short/flat track starts. He is projected to finish ninth, and he starts ninth. Bell is very comfortable at NHMS, as he won he third consecutive Xfinity race at the site on Saturday.
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
We can often identify good value plays from this category. Cole Custer has just one start so far at NHMS, but it was impressive enough to consider him as a top value play this week. Custer finished eighth at New Hampshire last year, and had 21.2 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers. Sure, it’s a very small sample size, but it still makes Custer a very attractive deeper value play at $6300. He did have a recent run of three consecutive Top 15 finishes on short/flat tracks. Custer starts 21st and is projected to finish 18th, but with the variance allowed for projections, a Top 15 or better finish is not out of the realm of possibilities and could make Custer a difference-maker in a tournament. Custer finished second in his last Xfinity start at NHMS and has never finished lower than ninth in his three Xfinity starts at the site.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
Driver Rating is the single most important Loop Data statistic, so we revisit this category regularly. This metric looks at the DR a driver achieved in a race and compares it to all other drivers historically with a similar season long DR and with very similar positions. This week, the category is telling us to avoid Chase Elliott, He has a negative number of -27.9 in recent NHMS races, and -14.3 over the longer term. Those numbers stand out in a very bad way among the rest of the field. Elliott has just one Top 5 finish in his last six New Hampshire starts.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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