Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 22

3 years ago by Jon Anderson

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Just a handful of weeks left, and maybe even fewer until your league's playoffs begin!

Last week this post fell victim to the injury bug, as we saw two of our recommendations go out (probably for the year) before making another start. Hopefully you avoided those two landmines.

This week we have a pretty low-upside list to go over, but at this point in the season these players might make a big difference. We are right at the point of the year where teams will start to pull back on their young arms if they're not in contention. We have seen this happen in multiple situations. Some of these names might be coming back for a few more starts, but chances are you have a hole or two in your fantasy rotation. Here are some names to patch up those holes.

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Pickups for Shallow Leagues

Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Indians (51% Rostered)

We need to be real careful looking at a small number of starts, but McKenzie has put together a really impressive three-start stretch. Here are his season totals against his last three:

You can see some serious improvement there on the walk totals, which is probably the most important category for him to have improved on. Throwing more strikes turns out to be a little bit more sustainable when you're looking at a small sample, so I'm willing to buy in a little bit on McKenzie here.

Over his short career, he has had wild swings in performance, but he's been getting a good amount of whiffs pretty much the whole time. There's definitely upside here with McKenzie – and any improved command is a welcome sign. The other positive is that the Indians have quite a favorable schedule for the rest of the year, loaded up with games against the Royals, Twins, Rangers, and Brewers.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (37% Rostered)

Skubal was a feature in this post for awhile this year, but then his rostered percentage took him out of the running. However, he had a rough stretch of starts in July and lots of people were quick to drop him. Check out his by-month stat breakdown here:

Month	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
April	6.14	1.68	17.3%	13.5%
May	3.33	1.26	34.2%	10.8%
June	3.14	1.22	30.8%	2.6%
July	5.86	1.19	20.0%	2.9%
August	1.02	1.02	24.3%	9.8%

A marked improvement in August over three starts (facing the Red Sox, Orioles, and Angels). That month of July is certainly concerning, and makes it tough to have a ton of confidence in him, but he is going to finish this year with a very strong strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is the foundation of a successful pitcher. I'll be riding Skubal out here.

Elieser Hernandez, Miami Marlins (30% Rostered)

Everybody knows about the alleged upside of Hernandez. We haven't seen a ton of that in the big leagues yet, and his pitch arsenal is quite limited being basically a two-pitch pitcher (four-seamer and slider). Despite that, he gets a bunch of whiffs (13% SwStr%) and he has walked almost nobody this year (a sub 5% walk rate).

I wasn't really in on Elieser at the beginning of the year, and those who were ended up not getting much from him because of the injuries. However, we are this late in the year and there are few pitchers available that can post these whiff rates while not also giving you a bunch of walks. Hernandez is worth a flier.

Josiah Gray Washington Nationals (25% Rostered)

This guy has now posted a 17% swinging-strike rate over 26 innings. Few pitchers have that ability. He has also managed the walks well since his first start, walking just five over his last 22 innings. The long-ball has been an issue, giving up eight homers over these five starts.

There is still some work for Gray to do to really become a must-start fantasy starter, and his pitch count is still being limited (maxing out at 87 pitches so far). That said, the upside is undeniable and he should improve your team's strikeout situation immediately upon arrival.

Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox (17% Rostered)

Since July 1, only two pitchers have higher K%-BB% ratios than Houck. Those names are Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole. Houck has posted a 34.7% K% and a 5.1% BB%. Those are elite numbers. He's also allowed just one homer in that time frame (21.1 innings).

The only issue we have here is the workload. He's gone five innings just twice this year and hasn't exceed 89 pitches. Maybe the Red Sox let him throw a few more pitches as we finish out the year (he hasn't thrown many innings this year so there shouldn't be worries about that), and if that happens Houck could be one of the better pitchers in the league down the stretch.

Pickups for Deeper Leagues

Zach Thompson, Miami Marlins (26% Rostered)

Thompson is yet another guy that isn't going to give you many quality starts, but he's pitched well when on the hill. He has a pretty bad strikeout rate (22%), but a manageable walk rate (9%) and a high ground-ball rate (45%). That along with some weak contact has led him to a 54 PA/HR and a decent ERA (2.91 as of Friday). He's not a high-priority arm to add, but he's fine if you're in a really deep league where the other guys I've mentioned aren't available.

The one thing to look out for is his actual job. With Elieser back, and the returns of Trevor Rogers and Pablo Lopez coming in the next week, I don't know if Thompson will have a spot in the rotation. That makes him even more low-priority when looking at the rest of the season, but in the short term maybe he can help you.

Tylor Megill, New York Mets (22% Rostered)

Megill has thus far made his living with soft contact and keeping the ball in the yard, but recently the swinging-strike rates have ticked up. He posted a great 18% rate in a start on August 18, and he's gone above 11% in five straight starts. For the year his mark is 12%, which is about league average. However, we can take a league average whiff rate when you're not walking many batters and getting a bunch of ground balls, which Megill has been doing.

I don't typically love investing in pitchers where you have to depend on the soft contact to be there because it's just not that easy to control. I much prefer pitchers with above-average swinging-strike rates, but Megill has shown the ability recently to do that, so we'll see how this works out the rest of the way. He should stay in that rotation as long as he's healthy as well, so he can definitely help some fantasy teams in deep leagues.

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