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Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I have selected an advanced stat, chosen two top performers and two under-performers, and analyzed what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. This week I will focus on a broader stat that can influence other aspects of a pitcher's game: walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP).
While WHIP is more of a general stat, it ties into many other more advanced stats. WHIP is of course made up of walks and hits, so it is important to examine both walk rate as well as BABIP along with WHIP. Generally speaking, pitchers with higher WHIPs have more runners on the base paths, which leads to poorer outcomes.
At this point in the season, pitchers have logged enough innings to paint general performance trends, which can be relied on in determining who to start or sit. Fantasy managers cannot afford to to make roster mistakes at this point in the season, so let's take get into it! As I have done throughout this series, I will not focus on obvious fantasy studs for this article.
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WHIP Studs
All stats current as of Sunday, August 22, 2021.
Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres
(7-7, 3.70 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 29.9% K Rate)
This first pitcher has been a fantasy staple for many seasons now. Yu Darvish (back) has been a low-WHIP, high strikeout pitcher throughout his career, and this season has been no different. Darvish's peripheral numbers have been good once again, going 7-7 with a 3.70 ERA, 29.9% K rate, and a 1.03 WHIP that is tied for eighth-best among qualified pitchers. However, he is currently on the 10-day injured list with back tightness, but is eligible to return to the Padres this week. If everything is well and good with Darvish otherwise, why would I include him in this article? Let's take a closer look to find out.
Despite Darvish's season numbers, fantasy managers have probably questioned starting him lately. This is because Darvish has struggled for most of the second half of the season. Specifically, he has a massive 7.13 ERA in his seven starts since July. Looking deeper into those starts yields interesting results. His 28.3% K rate and 4.6% walk rate are in line with his season marks. His 1.27 WHIP, while higher than his season mark, isn't a clear indicator of poor performance by itself. The other half of WHIP, hits, has been up, as indicated by his .300 BABIP. However, the culprit behind the poor performance has been damaging contact. His 2.80 HR/9 metric is inflated and almost double his season mark. His SIERA over those starts has been a stellar 3.36 despite all the home runs. However, fantasy mangers have ultimately paid the price recently for starting him.
This situation is a frustrating one. Darvish hasn't pitched well lately and is obviously not pitching at the moment, but both his walk rate and BABIP over the past several months haven't been all that bad. His SIERA over that time is solid, but he has given up a huge number of HR, even in some favorable matchups. Should he return to the Padres this week (he is expected to as of Sunday), fantasy managers may feel compelled to start him given his historical record. However, I would recommend sitting Darvish upon his return except in favorable matchups, despite his strong WHIP.
Tyler Anderson, Seattle Mariners
(6-8, 4.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 19.5% K Rate)
This next pitcher has been a useful streamer throughout his career, but is currently putting together a pretty decent season overall. Tyler Anderson recently moved to a better team in the Mariners and has gone 6-8 with a 4.01 ERA and impressive 1.17 WHIP with the Pirates and Mariners. He has never been a big strikeout pitcher, but can his ability to keep hitters off the base paths make him a sneaky back-of-the-rotation fantasy pitcher for the rest of the season?
It looks like Anderson has done a lot of things right to provide solid performance for fantasy managers. He has limited his walks at a 5.2% clip. He also has a career-low .273 BABIP. His batted-ball profile backs up his BABIP; his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the 83rd percentile of baseball, which makes his 17.4-degree launch angle tolerable. His 4.46 SIERA doesn't provide as much confidence, but the results have obviously been positive overall. Further, Anderson may not strike out hitters, but he has been able to pitch effectively out of the zone, as his chase rate is in the 87th percentile of baseball.
Anderson may not be the most exciting fantasy pitcher, but he has done a bunch of things well this season. His ability to get hitters to chase, avoid hard contact, and limit baserunners has given him a consistent floor in points leagues. His lack of strikeouts will limit his fantasy value in roto leagues, but I don't see why he can't be implemented as a back-end rotation pitcher for fantasy managers in points leagues pushing for the playoffs.
WHIP Duds
All stats current as of Sunday, August 22, 2021.
Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox
(9-6, 4.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 26.2% K rate)
I wrote about Nick Pivetta back in Week 5 as a launch angle dud. The TLDR was that Pivetta had gotten good results and was getting strikeouts, but was also getting a lot of high, hard contact. I had suggested that this would not be a sustainable process. Fast forward and Pivetta is still striking hitters out, but has a mediocre 4.43 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He is currently rostered in 48% of leagues and has the high-powered Red Sox offense behind him, but should fantasy managers shy away from him with playoff aspirations on the line?
Overall, Pivetta's underlying stats present a mixed bag. His 10.3% walk rate is a career high and is in the 28th percentile of baseball. He also has a relatively poor batted-ball profile; his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom-half of baseball and his launch angle is too high at 17.3 degrees. He has allowed a relatively high amount of contact at 77.8%, but his .281 BABIP is actually a career low. On the other hand, his 4.25 SIERA suggests that things could actually be a bit better for Pivetta, and all of his expected stats are in at least the 60th percentile of baseball.
When you put it all together, Pivetta has pretty much pitched as his underlying numbers have indicated. He walks too many hitters and has allowed some hard contact, hence the high WHIP. However, he hasn't gotten blown up, has struck out hitters, and has above-average expected stats. At this point in the season, I would shy away from Pivetta in roto leagues, but would pick and choose his matchups in points leagues. He is a relatively risky start depending on the matchup, but his strikeout potential and run support keep him in the conversation.
Chris Flexen, Seattle Mariners
(10-5, 3.65 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 16.5% K rate)
Our final pitcher came out of nowhere this season and has been quite the fantasy surprise. Chris Flexen played the 2020 season in the KBO League but has been an effective starter for the Mariners in 2021, going 10-5 with a 3.65 ERA over 23 starts. However, his K rate is quite low at 16.5% and his 1.25 WHIP is one of the higher marks in the league among qualified pitchers. Like his new teammate Tyler Anderson, is Flexen a pitcher who could help fantasy managers down the stretch?
To get to it, Flexen's numbers do not look as encouraging as Anderson's. His 4.9% walk rate is great; that puts him in the 93rd percentile of baseball. However, his WHIP is still pretty high because he has given up so many hits. A look at his batted-ball profile helps explain this. His 89.8-MPH average exit velocity and 40.3% hard-hit rate are in the 27th and 38th percentiles of baseball, respectively. His 10.4-degree launch angle isn't as high as Anderson's, but he allowed much harder contact. Further, his 83.7% contact rate is the highest among qualified pitchers. The combination of allowing so much contact and specifically hard contact has led to a .303 BABIP for Flexen and his high WHIP, despite the lack of walks. The fact that his ERA has remained as low as it has is surprising given all this, and his 4.63 SIERA suggests that he has gotten quite lucky.
At this point in the season, Flexen is rostered in 47% of leagues and Anderson is rostered in just 21%. Both are low-strikeout, low-walk pitchers, but Anderson has been able to limit hard contact and has the underlying metrics to back it up. Flexen may have better peripheral numbers, but all signs point to those numbers being lucky. As such, I would rather have Anderson for the rest of the season over Flexen.
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