RADIO
With two weeks until the start of the NFL season, many fantasy managers are moving from participating in best-ball leagues to starting to prepare for redraft and home leagues. However, that doesn't have to mean you give up on some of your favorite sleepers.
I've been pretty consistent in arguing that the term sleeper is often misused. Since we have an ever-increasing amount of information at our fingertips, many fantasy managers think of sleepers as guys people haven't heard about, which would likely mean guys with very little chance of making a meaningful impact. However, as Phil Clark put it in his RB sleeper piece, we need to shift towards the term sleeper describing players that are "primed to exceed the expectations of their ADPs." Sometimes that will mean your late-round dart throws, and other times it will mean a veteran who dropped too far in the draft.
You'll find both such types among the five names I dive into below. Since this is a "deep" sleeper piece and not simply your run-of-the-mill sleeper column, I'll be looking strictly at guys who are going in the double-digit rounds, based on ADP for a 12-team full-PPR league, so guys who are being taken outside the top-120 picks. For the purpose of this article, I've taken the ADP from NFFC drafts between August 10th and 24th, which you can find here.
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Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons
ADP: 129/WR55
We start this article off with a boring but likely productive late-round pick. At 25-years-old and entering his fourth NFL season, Gage has gotten progressively better in each of his NFL seasons, last year recording 786 yards and four touchdowns on 72 catches and 109 targets. Now, a lot of that production had to do with Julio Jones missing time with an injury, but Jones is also now on the Titans, so we shouldn't look at those 109 targets as flukey heading into this season.
Even with his injuries, Julio played 71.4% of the Falcons' snaps at WR and received 20% of the team's overall targets. Both of those trailed Calvin Ridley, who remains as the team's top wideout; however, Gage finished third in both categories with a 68% snap share and 17.9% of the Falcons' targets. Considering the Falcons have to replace Julio's target share and production and didn't bring in any receiver other than Tajae Sharpe and Cordarrelle Patterson, I think it's fair to assume that Gage can improve on his involvement in the offense, and when we're looking for late-round value, we love a player who figures to have a substantial and secure role.
The Falcons were fourth in the NFL last year in passing attempts and fifth in passing yardage, but only 16th in passing touchdowns. Now, I don't think they're going to get the 38 passing touchdowns they got from Matt Ryan in 2016 or even the 35 they got from him in 2018, but I think something around 30 is fair to expect given the team's inability to run the ball and questionable talent at the running back position behind Mike Davis, who is 28-years-old and coming off a year in which he crushed his career-high in usage.
So if the Falcons are still going to throw the ball and are likely to throw for more touchdowns, who else will they go to besides Calvin Ridley? The easy answer, and the one that I think is driving down Gage's draft price, is rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. While Pitts is certainly a concern for Gage's value since Gage spent the majority of his time in the slot last year, there are two reasons I think we need to pump the brakes on knocking Gage too much. First of all, tight end is among the hardest positions to adjust to in the NFL, and even if Pitts is a unique talent and far more versatile than most tight ends, it is still fair to expect a learning curve and him to not immediately have the trust of his veteran quarterback in tight spots.
The second reason is simply that the same versatility Pitts has that people use against Gage may actually be helping Gage become a draft value:
If Pitts is going to move around the formation, also playing out wide, in-line, and in the backfield, then there are numerous formations that would allow both Pitts and Gage to be on the field and running routes at the same time. The creativity of Arthur Smith may actually allow for Gage to maintain value despite the addition of a talented rookie, who will still undoubtedly have some down weeks. Needless to say, that's enough reason to take a chance on a talented player like Gage this late in drafts.
Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 152/WR60
I'm well aware that after the way Callaway showed out during the Saints' preseason game against the Jaguars, he will likely rise above the threshold for this article, but he qualifies now, so we're going to dive in. For those who missed the Jaguars game or the highlights that followed, here's a sample of what your league-mates saw.
The biggest reason for Callaway's production and increased opportunity is clearly the injury to Michael Thomas. The perennial All-Pro is out with an ankle injury that has prevented him from practicing for the last seven months. The injury, which occurred in Week 1 of last season, has become a lightning rod for clashes between the star wideout and the team and even though Thomas returned for the playoffs last year, he waited until June training camp to have surgery, which caused even more tension between the veteran and his team.
Despite the fact that Thomas should be recovered by sometime in October, it's fair to question whether the bridge has been burned and Thomas has played his last snap ever in a Saints uniform.
Even the chance of that makes Callaway even more intriguing as a draft pick. Last year, even with his injuries, Thomas had the Saints' highest snap share at 74% and averaged 30.2% of the team's overall targets. Further adding to Callaway's prospects, the number two target share receiver, Emmanuel Sanders, is now on the Bills, so the Saints figure to need to replace 48.8% of the team targets from last season.
The easy replacement would appear to be Tre'Quan Smith, who had 10.4% of the team targets last year (third on the team) while playing the second-most snaps among receivers with 71%. However, Smith simply hasn't delivered in his three NFL seasons. He has never topped 500 yards in a season and despite his deep speed, his 9.3 average air yards per target is on par with middle-of-the-field receivers like Adam Humphries and Brandon Aiyuk, but 2.8 expected yards after the catch puts him around guys like Mike Williams and N'Keal Harry, which isn't an ideal combination.
We're unsure what the Saints' offense will look like without Drew Brees, but it's clear that Callaway has taken his opportunity and made the most of it. If Jameis Winston wins the starting quarterback job, we know that he will be fearless in taking shots downfield to Callaway, as he did against the Jags, which would be a welcome sight to fantasy managers.
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants
ADP: 161/WR64
Just what you were hoping for, another boring veteran. But this simply comes down to me being confused about why we keep overlooking Shepard. The 28-year-old only played in 12 games last year but hauled in 66 catches (on 90 targets) for 656 yards and three touchdowns. Not exceptional numbers, but this wasn't exactly a strong Giants offense. Shepard played the second-most snaps at wide receiver, with 72%, but saw the most targets with 23.8% of the team share, just ahead of Evan Engram's 21.6%.
Shepard split his team between playing on the perimeter and in the slot since the Giants had Golden Tate on the team the last two years; however, Shepard figures to be the main slot receiver this year, which is a boost to his fantasy stock. Shepard is more natural in the slot, averaging more catches, yards, and touchdowns per game when he lines up inside. In fact, during his rookie season in 2016, Shepard had more touchdown receptions when lined up in the slot than any other receiver in the NFL.
I know the Giants drafted Kadarius Toney in the first round this year, but I don't expect him to be a major factor in the team's offense and free-agent acquisition Kenny Golladay plays solely on the outside, so he shouldn't be a threat to Shepard's snaps. To top it off, Golladay is already battling a hamstring injury that has kept him out for most of the preseason and, given his lengthy injury history, there's a non-zero chance that Shepard remains the top pass-catching option on the Giants. With Saquon Barkley also battling back from injury and the Giants unlikely to ride him into the ground right from the start of the season, Shepard is standing out to me as a great value where he's going and should provide you with consistent targets and increased upside now that he's back at his natural position.
Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas Raiders
ADP: 174/WR68
Bryan Edwards is another name that the fantasy football community has been discussing at length this offseason; however, it's no surprise when you see him do things like this:
Edwards is a bit of a fantasy darling because he produced at South Carolina at a young age, which allowed him to have a College Dominator ranking in the 94th percentile. As the highlight above shows, he's a physically imposing wide receiver who also has above-average speed, but should be a major asset in the red zone which is good news for a Raiders team that really only had Darren Waller as a consistent option down there in 2020. Nelson Agholor (17.6%) and Hunter Renfrow (10.8%) saw the second and third-most targets in the red zone, but they are not the type of wide receivers to consistently win in those short-yardage situations.
Another reason that Edwards is intriguing is because of the lack of talent around him. Last year, Agholor led Raiders wide receivers with a 15.4% target share and 68.2% snap share, while finishing second with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 15.3. Considering Renfrow remains strictly a slot receiver, the only real options to replace Agholor's numbers are Edwards, Willie Snead, and Zay Jones, and as a Bills fan, I am begging you not to put your eggs in the Zay Jones basket. With Henry Ruggs III remaining more of a speed threat than well-rounded wide receiver, I think Edwards should emerge as the WR1 on a team that figures to be trailing and throwing a fair share this season.
Quez Watkins, Philadelphia Eagles
ADP: 276/WR97
Let's end with a total dart throw. I think we're hating on this Eagles offense a little too much, especially in terms of fantasy production. Yes, the offensive line still has issues, Miles Sanders hasn't lived up to his draft hype, and the wide receiver corps features a bunch of unknowns, but I am absolutely a believer in Jalen Hurts. The second-year pro has looked good in the preseason and showed last year that his mobility and deep shots down the field can lead to success, posting two 335+ yard performances in his two starts, including hitting 11 passes of 20 yards or more and three passes of 40 or more in those two games.
You look at those deep ball numbers and then you see the clip below and you can start to see why I have been taking Watkins in best ball leagues.
The second-year wideout from Southern Miss has speed to burn, running a 4.35 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, and can clearly get off the line of scrimmage, as shown by the clip above and in the preseason game against the Steelers.
He appeared in 12 games for the Eagles last year and didn't see much production, but the team will need to replace the 12.6% of targets that went to DeSean Jackson, and really, the 15% of targets that went to Travis Fulgham, who appears to have fallen totally out of the receiver rotation. That leaves Watkins, Greg Ward, Jalen Reagor, and rookie DeVonta Smith; however, the Eagles' last preseason game could be telling.
While Ward has been a solid option for the Eagles in years past, much of that had to do with limited competition. He had the fewest yards per route run of any WR with over 50 targets last year and averaged only 3.2 yards after the catch, which is not nearly the game-breaking ability that Watkins brings.
However, I think that Watkins' impact could grow beyond starting slot receiver. Given that we've seen Reagor struggle to maintain consistency and we know it's hard for rookies to be immediately impactful at the receiver position, there's a chance Watkins becomes a bigger part of this offense than we expect if Smith or Reagor struggle at all early in the season. With Watkins' big-play ability, his apparent role in the starting lineup, his familiarity with the team's offense, and the playmaking ability of his quarterback, he's one of my favorite late-round picks in most formats.
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