RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~110 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~126
ANALYSIS: Everybody knows the Patriots love to use their tight ends because we've been hearing people talk about it for almost a decade now. So when the Patriots go out and sign a 26-year-old with elite run after the catch ability, I expected to see the draft price shoot up.
The only reason I can find is that the Patriots also signed Hunter Henry. However, Jonnu has been better than Henry in their careers up until now and has a run-after-the-catch ability that Henry simply doesn't have. As a 4.73 40 runner with 25th percentile burst and 3.4 expected yards after the catch, Henry simply can't compare in the open field to Jonnu and his 4.62 40, 94th-percentile burst score, and 4.8 expected yards after the catch.
Could Henry take some red-zone looks away from Jonnu? Sure, but last year, the Patriots threw the ball in the red zone 25.6% of the time to N'Keal Henry, who has been placed on IR, and then favored dump-offs to running backs with James White (15.4%) and Rex Burkhead (12.8%) being their second and third-most targeted players in close. I fully expect that hierarchy to change this year and think the entire Patriots target share could be in for an overhaul, which would leave room for both Smith and Henry.
Aside from my belief in Jonnu's talent, the biggest factor pushing me in his direction is the dearth of other options in the passing game. Jakobi Meyers and his team-leading 24.7% target share are back but with the departure of Julian Edelman, Damiere Byrd, Rex Burkhead, and starting tight end Ryan Izzo, the Patriots have to replace 58.9% of their team targets last year. Yes, they added Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, but neither one of those guys is a dynamic talent and neither works the middle of the field the way Jonnu does.
With the recent move away from Cam Newton and towards rookie Mac Jones, the entire offense should benefit. Rookie quarterbacks tend to also favor short passes and tight ends as safety blankets. I fully expect him to be a major asset for the Patriots this year and finish as a top-10 option at the position. At his current ADP, he is a great late-round draft sleeper to target for all fantasy football teams.
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