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Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! To those of you who have advanced to the fantasy playoffs or have locked up a spot, congratulations! Each week I have selected an advanced stat, chosen two top performers and two under-performers, and analyzed what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. This week I will focus on a stat that describes how pitchers have performed overall: weighted on-base average (wOBA).
wOBA is used to establish the value a player brings per plate appearance using unintentional walks, base hits, and hit-by-pitches. It is scaled like on-base percentage. It is a nice catch-all metric to gauge player performance. While I have looked at expected wOBA throughout this season, how a pitcher should have performed is not as important as how they have actually performed at this point in the season.
Fantasy managers need to make all the right roster decisions this late in the game. The difference between starting or streaming a particular pitcher can make all the difference between advancing in the playoffs and starting the off-season early. As I have done throughout this series, I will not focus on obvious fantasy studs for this article. Let's get going with the hopes that this analysis can help you get the edge in the fantasy playoffs!
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wOBA Studs
All stats current as of Sunday, September 5, 2021.
Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies
(6-4, 1.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 25% K Rate, .235 wOBA)
This first pitcher started the season in the Phillies' bullpen and has had a very successful transition into the starting rotation. Ranger Suarez's last seven appearances have been starts, and he has gone 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. His stats have been stellar all season long, and his .235 wOBA is in the top-five percent of baseball. He is relatively new to the rotation and is currently rostered in just 66% of leagues, so is Suarez a player who could help fantasy managers for the playoffs?
Suarez relies mainly on a sinker (46.1% usage), changeup (24.8% usage), and four-seam fastball (22.7% usage), but he has done well with his limited pitch arsenal. His batted-ball profile is great; his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the top 1o percent of baseball, and he has kept the ball on the ground with a 1.7-degree launch angle. His 3.66 SIERA is much higher than his ERA and his .233 BABIP is much lower than his career .293 mark, but at this point in the season it seems safe to rely on what Suarez has done and his strong batted-ball profile. He also has generated a solid 10.3% overall swinging-strike rate despite relying so much on his sinker. The added strikeout potential makes him that much more appealing.
Suarez has continued to do what he was doing out of the bullpen in the rotation, and he has done a great job overall. He has avoided hard contact, kept the ball on the ground, and gotten strikeouts. All of this has culminated in a stellar wOBA for a Phillies team that has gotten hot lately. Fantasy managers in the playoffs may not need additional rotation help at this point, but Suarez is a viable option if they do.
Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays
(1-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 26.9% K Rate, .265 wOBA)
This next pitcher is in a somewhat similar position to Suarez in that he has gone between the bullpen and the rotation this season but has been starting lately. Drew Rasmussen has been a useful arm for the Rays all season and has a .265 wOBA to show for it. He also has a 1.59 ERA over his last four appearances, which have been starts. The Rays are one of the most creative clubs in terms of utilizing their pitchers, so it would not be surprising to see Rasmussen change roles by the end of the season. However, is he worth having as a SP/RP in your lineup given how well he has performed?
Rasmussen does not present as convincing a picture as Suarez. Like Suarez, Rasmussen relies on limited pitches; in this case, it is a four-seam fastball (66.3% usage) and a slider (29.2% usage). He has gotten an 11.8% swinging-strike rate with that arsenal, but I worry that Rasmussen's success as a starter could disappear quickly since he relies so much on his fastball. He has also only pitched 5 innings in one of his four recent starts despite his success, which could be due to his lack of pitching options. Further, his batted-ball profile leaves something to be desired. His 9.9-degree launch angle is okay, but his 90-MPH average exit velocity and 45.9% hard-hit rate are in the bottom 23 and six percent of baseball, respectively. Consequently, his 3.77 SIERA is also much higher than his ERA.
It wouldn't be completely fair for me to say not to worry about Suarez's expected stats but to worry about Rasmussen's. However, Suarez has plenty of other underlying metrics to support his success, whereas Rasmussen has plenty to give pause. He has gotten plenty of strikeouts overall but has just a 6.88 K/9 rate over his four recent starts. Also, he has yielded solid results despite giving up hard contact. Overall, I think Suarez has valid upside worthy of the fantasy playoffs, but I think Rasmussen simply offers too much risk.
wOBA Duds
All stats current as of Sunday, September 5, 2021.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs
(14-6, 4.65 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 16.9% K Rate, .346 wOBA)
Kyle Hendricks is certainly not having the season he or fantasy managers had hoped for. His ERA, WHIP, and wOBA are all career wprsts and his wOBA is one of the highest among starting pitchers. However, he has had a strong fantasy career and is likely a tough sit for fantasy managers despite his numbers. Should fantasy managers believe Hendricks' wOBA and sit him for the fantasy playoffs?
Hendricks' underlying numbers are somewhat contradicting. His batted-ball profile is solid; his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 90th and 88th percentiles of baseball, respectively. His 11.5-degree launch angle isn't fantastic, but is fine considering the soft contact he allows. However, his .301 BABIP is a career high and his 1.62 HR/9 rate is much higher than his 0.99 career mark and doesn't align with his batted-ball profile. His 4.67 SIERA suggests that his ERA is legit, but that doesn't completely align with the contact he has allowed.
It seems as though Hendricks' underlying numbers should not have produced the peripheral numbers he has experienced this season, but unfortunately, things have not panned out for him. I would call Hendricks a buy-low candidate if this were the middle of the season, but I cannot support starting him at this point in the season, despite the underlying contradictions.
Vladimir Gutierrez, Cincinnati Reds
(9-6, 4.17 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 17.9% K Rate, .334 wOBA)
Our final pitcher has been a surprise fantasy contributor this season. Vladimir Gutierrez got called up at the end of May and has held things down for the Reds, winning nine games with a mediocre 4.17 ERA. His .344 wOBA is one of the higher values among starting pitchers, but at 44% ownership, is he a potential streaming option for the rest of the season?
Simply put, nothing really stands out as all that positive or negative for Gutierrez. He has not been an overpowering pitcher and both his batted-ball profile and all expected stats have been slightly below average. His 4.97 SIERA is below average and his 1.54 HR/9 rate isn't great, but his .271 BABIP is fine and here is nothing glaringly wrong otherwise about his game. Despite his high wOBA, Gutierrez seems to fit the profile of a mediocre starting pitcher all around.
Gutierrez has likely helped some fantasy managers make it to the fantasy playoffs or stay in contention. He hasn't done a lot poorly, but also hasn't hasn't excelled. I think he is a bit better than his wOBA gives him credit for, but I would not be willing to pick him up at this point in the season. That being said, I also wouldn't blame those fantasy managers who made it here with him to stick with him.
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