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Well just like that, NBA Media Day has come and gone in the blink of an eye, and while there was drama (cc. Ben Simmons and Kyrie Irving), seeing Russell Westbrook in a Lakers' jersey just felt official. If Media Day signaled one thing, it's this: The NBA regular season is fast approaching. And with it comes a fresh slate of fantasy hoops.
In my latest column, I named five guards currently being drafted outside the top-150 according to the latest ADP. Some might label them as sleepers. In this piece, we'll take the same approach but focus our attention on the forward position.
Whatever you do, don't be afraid to take a chance on any of these players with the last couple of picks in your draft.
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Marcus Morris Sr. (LAC) - ADP of 188
The better-looking Morris twin, Marcus Sr. was thrust into a larger role for the Clippers last season due to a plethora of injuries. Much like his teammate, Reggie Jackson, the entire fantasy community seems to forget just how big of an impact Morris had for the 47-25 Clips'. He started a total of 29 games and finished the season with an average of 13.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.0 assists in 26.4 minutes per game. While those numbers aren't necessarily something to write home about, Morris shot a staggering 47% from three on 5.2 attempts per game. The uber efficiency from deep landed him a measly .2% behind Joe Harris for the highest three-point percentage in the league. That's a massive improvement for someone who's a career 37.9 percent shooter from three on 4.1 attempts per game.
The biggest determining factor for Morris' fantasy value in 2022 lies in Kawhi Leonard's status. The 'fun guy' suffered a torn ACL in the postseason and will miss most, if not all of the regular season as a result. To get a better picture of what to expect from Morris in the regular season, let's take a look at how he fared in the 14 regular-season games without Leonard in the lineup: 17.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.2 combined blocks and steals, and a 24% usage rating. Oh, and remember that impressive 47 percent from three? Morris improved to 50 percent from deep in the 14 games without Leonard. Not too shabby.
In all seriousness, 14 games is a very small sample size and it's incredibly foolish to expect Morris to drain 50 percent of his shots from beyond the arc over the course of an entire season. Realistically, Morris' numbers should look something similar to his body of work in 2019-2020: 16.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.3 blocks/steals on 43/40/82 shooting splits.
While the usage and opportunity will certainly be there this season, Morris' game is better suited for points leagues rather than 8 or 9-cat leagues. His scoring and efficiency will be solid but beware of his lack of production in the peripherals.
Jarred Vanderbilt (MIN) - Undrafted
There were only two things standing in the way of Vanderbilt becoming a 9-cat legend last season: Playing time and 3PT shooting. Outside of that, he was spectacular in his 17.7 minutes per game. To put into perspective, his Per-36 numbers last season were 11.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 3.5 blocks/steals while shooting 60.6 percent from the field. That's like... really good. His strong play even earned him a three-year, $13.8 million extension in the offseason, which is a nice payday for someone who was on a minimum salary.
Vanderbilt should begin the season as the backup power forward behind Jaden McDaniels, and his offseason extension hints he should see a slight increase in playing time. Neither McDaniels nor Vanderbilt profile as reliable shooters, which is why there was some chatter earlier in the offseason that Minnesota was in the market for a stretch-four. Despite the reports, nothing has materialized and it would be foolish to speculate on a rumor.
Without getting carried away, Vanderbilt only averaged 12.0 MPG in 39 games with KAT in the lineup, so there is some risk involved now that the former is fully healthy. I still can't help myself. The efficient shooting, the 7-foot wingspan, and the high per-minute rebounding totals make him hard to pass up in the last round of drafts.
Kenyon Martin Jr. (HOU) - Undrafted
Just listen to these stats: 18.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.5 combined blocks and steals. Those were Martin Jr.'s numbers over the last nine games of his rookie season last year. Add in the 52/43/71 shooting splits and the 37 MPG and you had yourself a certified league-winner. Fast-forward to the present day and it appears the addition of Jalen Green has deterred people away from Martin Jr. in drafts, as evidenced by his post-200 ADP. I believe that is lunacy.
Sure, the Rockets selected Green with the second pick in this year's draft but they also parted ways with Kelly Olynyk and are in the process of breaking up with John Wall. Those are two players who commanded a ton of usage down the stretch last season. Outside of that, the cast is pretty much the same.
Jae'Sean Tate's defensive abilities should earn him the starting nod at small forward to begin the year but Martin's athleticism will lead him to ample playing time as well.
I'm still not quite ready to draft Martin inside the first 10-12 rounds of re-draft, but it's hard to ignore his giant ceiling. Besides, upside should be the main focus when selecting late in drafts, and Martin has shown us that he has plenty of it.
Deni Avdija (WAS) - Undrafted
Last season was up-and-down for Avdija. After being selected as a top-10 pick, he went on to average just 6.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.2 assists before suffering a broken ankle late in the season. The acquisition of Russell Westbrook didn't help matters either, as playing alongside two high-usage players in Westbrook and Bradley Beal led to limited opportunities. We know this because on nights when Westbrook sat, Avdija saw his minutes increase to 29.4 and put up 10.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.8 steals while shooting 41 percent from beyond the arc. Albeit it was a six-game sample size, but he's shown the ability to produce when given the opportunity.
There is some risk involved with Kyle Kuzma and Spencer Dinwiddie now added to the mix, but it's clear the Wizards need to get Avdija going after spending a top-10 pick on him. First-year Wizards coach Wes Unseld had this to say about Avdija's prospects in year two:
"He looks strong. He's moving well. He's put in a lot of time. I'm excited to see how it translates. The next iteration for him is being a playmaker -- playing as a secondary ball handler, sometimes the primary."
This could be coach speak. But what if it's not? Avdija has the draft pedigree and the talent to be a worthwhile fantasy asset in his second season.
Chuma Okeke (ORL) - ADP of 149
A torn ACL delayed Okeke's NBA debut by a year, but you couldn't tell from watching him last season. He finished the campaign with averages of 7.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.5 three's and 1.1 steals in just over 25 minutes per game. While those are pedestrian numbers at best, how he finished the season is what lands him on this list. Over his final 18 games, he posted 12.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.5 steals in just over 30 minutes per game.
Okeke is expected to start at power forward to begin the season, with his only competition coming from rookie Franz Wagner. Jonathan Isaac is back, though the team has made it clear they plan to ease him in after the long layoff. Regardless, the Magic are rebuilding, and Okeke is at the forefront. Given the current roster, I don't see a world in which he doesn't see at least 15 shot attempts per game. With that kind of usage paired with his 3-and-D capabilities, Okeke should have no problem finishing as a top-100 guy if he can stay healthy.
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