LoL DFS Picks for 10/6: DraftKings, FanDuel League of Legends World Championships

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! Day one was a bit less exciting than we had hoped. A lot of the promised jungle assassins showed their faces but failed to live up to expectations. Curse of the sad bullet-time came out as expected, and it too proved to be difficult to time out correctly. Nevertheless, C9 stepped up, LNG (particularly Ale) looked strong, Galasataray made me happy I hedged, and the Red Canids took their first game. As the first team in groups, auto qualifies to the main stage, so every match is of utmost importance, and the teams that stumbled on day one could be desperate by the time the main slate rolls around. 

Keep that regional strength in mind as we continue into day two of the play-in stage. It's always up for debate, but generally speaking, I consider LPL the strongest region even after DWG won the last World's title. Thanks to DWG's performance last year, LCK and LEC are right behind them, with the LCK ahead by a nose. From 2013 to 2017, Korea was the dominant force in international play, winning five straight titles and having three straight All-Korean finals. After PSG Talon's showings at last year's Worlds and this year's MSI, they may have set the PCS ahead of the LCS. The rest of the regions come in around the same level of strength. So let's keep this in mind when we're looking at the stats.  

We'll have the two-game early slate this morning, followed by another four-game main slate. Then, tomorrow, there will be a single four-game main slate. The first-place team in each group then auto qualifies to the main stage while the third and fourth place teams square off in a best of five. Those matches' winners will then play another best of five series with the second-place team from the other group, and that gives us Friday and Saturday as a pair of two-game best of five slates to close out play-ins. That's plenty for now; we'll cover the main stage schedule when we get there. Never fear, though; the Esports crew here at Rotoballer will be here with you all the way, so stay tuned!

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Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that lock at 8:40 AM ET on Wednesday, October 6th, 2021. Also, make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger, as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.

8:40 AM: Infinity Esports (LLA) -185 vs. PEACE (OCE) +140 

Both teams got the complete introduction to the Worlds stage yesterday with matches versus the LCK and LPL fourth seeds, respectively. Infinity also dropped their rivalry match versus CBLOL champ Red Canids, and the major region's reps summarily dismantled the wild card qualifiers. INF will look to regain its winning ways from the summer split, and PCE will try to find its footing here. Peace will warm up by facing HLE in the day's opener and will likely be joining INF at 0-2 heading into this match.

I think we saw Pentanet.gg over-perform at MSI, and it is well to remember that the OCE was decimated in the off-season with a ton of talent leaving for the LCS as Riot "rearranged" the region. LLA, on the other hand, has seen an influx of talent from LCK Challengers. Bvoy, Haru, and Archer all joined within the past year, elevating the level of the league as a whole. I give a slight edge to the LLA reps in terms of regional strength as we can draw on our experience in EU Masters when regions lose top-tier players and the league's overall power declines. 

The teams are close in the early game with similar GD@15, CSM, and EGR, but Infinity does have a slight edge in herald percentage, first turret, and first blood. The herald differential coupled with the lack of their starting top laner could cost PCE here. It isn't easy to judge their ability to adapt after only seeing the one game versus LNG from yesterday, but it is challenging to overcome anytime you change parts on the fly. The team's late-game stats are also close, with PCE having a slight edge in total drakes and baron numbers. 

I think I'm leaning to the side of INF in this one, but with both teams' death per loss numbers on the low side, I may fade this close match. This projects as the lowest-scoring match on the DK main slate, with INF as the fifth-highest in a win and PCE as eighth. If you do pick a side here, I will stick to small stacks of the mid-jungle duos, or possibly either top laner.  

 

9:30 AM: Red Canids (CBLOL) +330 vs. HLE (LCK) -550

The Red Canids have a brutal day two with an earlier match against LNG to set the tone before this battle with the other big name in the group HLE. This match will be HLE's final in the truncated best of one segment at play-ins, and after the loss to LNG yesterday, they will need to finish strong here for the best of five seedings. However, coming in as the biggest favorite on the DK main slate, they should be able to take care of business in that regard. RC does have some momentum coming in with their win over rivalry region qualifiers INF in which they stumbled out of the gate but leaned on adc Titan (TeeTawn) to pull out the win. HLE's odds haven't budged after their opening loss to LNG and a narrower win over the LLA representative INF.  

 

By now, you're pretty familiar with Hanwa and their fantastic run through the LCK's regional qualifier tournament. Still, unless you played a ton of Sunday morning CBLOL dfs, you're likely less familiar with Brazil's champs, the Red Canids. RC finished tied for the final playoff spot in the regular split with a 10-8 record, but they ran the gauntlet in the playoff beating three of the league's top four teams to claim the title. Perhaps most startling was they accomplished this with their Academy mid-Grevthar starting for the playoffs instead of Avenger, who had played all split with the team. Grev has a long history with jungler Aegis. You can read more of his story HERE, and now he'll be realizing one of his dreams in facing off with Chovy. 

Even with their impressive qualifying run HLE wasn't a dominant early game team, and RC come in with a better GD@15, herald percentage, first turret rating, and first three turrets downed. HLE should be a bit better late with better drake and vision numbers though RC has the edge in baron percentage. 

Hanwa is difficult to predict because they should win every game versus lower-tier competition simply on Chovy diff, but as we saw in the LCK regular season, that isn't always the case. Red Canids will likely try to punish through the top lane, and Guigo did supply 25% of the team's damage in the regular split. The CBLOL does not want for carrying tops either, and he is right in discussion with Parang, Robo, and Fnb for the best in the region. We could see RC take an early lead forcing HLE to fight back from behind, and either way, this is a match I want to target.  

CBLOL teams tend to be action-packed, and the Canids are no different; they were the third-fastest team in the regular split. This match carries the second-highest total for me on the slate by a narrow margin. I'll have lots of action here with big HLE stacks and a few hedges on the RC side. Hanwa should win, but they can be enigmatic, to say the very least. They will also be popular as the most prominent name team on the slate.  

Top HLE Plays:

• Chovy - MID - DUH!
• Deft - ADC - third in KP% and second to Chovy in KS% the veteran ADC had a resurgence in the qualifier after a down summer split. 
• Vsta - SUP - led the team in KP% on its regional run.
• Willer - JNG - glue guy, plus he's not Morgan. Though the top laner could see a lot of action, if you're looking for a contrarian play, he's the one it's just tough to pull the trigger on a guy with 32% of his team's deaths. 

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10:20 AM: Beyond Gaming (PCS) +140 vs. Cloud 9 (LCS) - 185

I think you can all guess where I'm leaning in this match before I even started typing about it over a week ago. This match will be the second for both teams after C9 impressed on day one and Beyond didn't. C9 will still be looking to avenge their poor showing at MSI, where they went 0-2 versus PSG Talon, who I needn't remind you featured Doggo at ADC. C9 had a very up and down summer split highlighted by their playoff loss to 100 Thieves that sent them to the play-ins. Beyond disappointed on day one, losing to GAL and subbing out top laner Liang for PK, who hadn't played since mid-July. C9 has moved to an even bigger favorite after day one and I believe we'll see the odds continue to slide in their favor leading up to lock. 

Statistically speaking, neither team is very potent in the early game, with BYG in fourth and C9 sixth in their respective leagues in EGR. I've sorted Beyond's stats based on their playoff performance as that pits them against better competition. The PCS is a very top-heavy league, and the LCS is a bit more balanced. Giving a slight edge to Beyond early game and C9 late seems like the right call here, with C9 having a slight edge in vision numbers and barons.  

You already know I love the bot lane matchup for the side of BYG, but I am concerned about the mid-jungle duo. The most significant edge for C9 will come through the top half of the map, and IF they can get their solo lanes and jungler on the same page should be able to win through that. Unfortunately for Beyond, C9 looked much more coordinated yesterday in the opener versus DFM. It seems like the early playoff exit may have helped them by allowing them time to work on some deficiencies without the pressure of playoffs. C9 can offset BYG's early objective edge with solid laning and individual prowess. C9 also has the advantage late, and it comes down to Doggo trying to one vs. nine, so as much as I love BYG, I have to side with C9 here slightly.

According to my numbers, this is the second slowest game, with C9 as the seventh slowest LCS team and BYG the slowest PCS team. However, even with some Beyond hype on the timeline, C9 is the known quantity for most players, and they should be popular because of that. I do like them to win, but I'm likely fading this matchup for the most part—small stacks of each team or perhaps a one-off of Fudge, Blaber, Perkz, or Doggo. SO my heart picks Beyond, my head picks C9, and my pocketbook says to stay away from this snoozer.  

11:10 AM: Galasataray (TCL) -125 vs. DFM (LJL) -105

Much like yesterday, the last match of the day for the main slate on DraftKings might be my favorite. DFM upended UOL and fell to C9 on day one and will need this win to keep pace with GAL. GAL were the darlings of day one, defeating both Beyond Gaming and UOL to stand alone in their group at 2-0. This performance has been reflected in the odds as they moved from dogs to favorites in this match, and DK has them priced as the underdog. After a potent day one from GAL, I expect them to be popular here especially given the discount.  

 TCL has historically been the stronger of the two regions, and I can't let my DFM love outweigh the historical strength of the areas. TCL has some higher-tier imports from Korea, former fringe LCK level players like Crazy, Seongwhan, bonO, and Alive that are helping to boost the region's overall skill level. The LJL has also started featuring more imports and famous names such as Moojin, Naehyun, Crash, Zenit, and SSol, bringing more considerable region experience and talent. So on the strength of the regions, I have to give the edge to the TCL champs.  

We will get a strength versus strength matchup here as both teams were the best early game team in their home regions. DFM has a slight edge with a better GD@15, rift herald percentage, first blood, and first three turret rating. The late-game should be tight as well, with DFM having a slight vision edge compared to better baron numbers on the side of GAL. DFM has the overall better team stats, and as they should be up early. They also finish well, winning 78% of their games when ahead at 15 minutes.   

With BBQ Crazy in the top lane, it may be that a lot of DFM's top-focused plays could fizzle out as he has played in both the LPL and LCK and experienced tons of pressure from high-end top-laners before. Both teams have top-tier imported talent, which looks very even across the board regarding player level. This match will be the third for each team at Worlds, so they will have had time to adapt to the ever-shifting meta. DFM has been excellent on the red side utilizing the counter pick for Gaeng in the support role. He favors engaging supports that enable him to kick things off for his squad.  

I'm having a hard time with this matchup and am leaning slightly to the DFM side. Full disclosure I'm likely playing both sides. I like the numbers for DFM as they are my top projected team for the slate and the discount on GAL, my fourth-highest forecasted team. After yesterday I expect a ton of roster percentage to swing to GAL, and so I'll be looking at adding more DFM to my portfolio to counter that in gpps. 

Top DFM Plays:

• Steal - JNG - a whopping 78.6 kill participation in wins over the summer split make him a must in any DFM stack.
• Evi - MID - 33.5 kill share led the team in wins in summer. 
• Gaeng - SUP - second in kill participation.
• Yutapon - ADC -stepped up in the playoffs to lead the team in KS%.  

Top GAL Plays:

• Mojito - JNG - led the team in both kill metrics in wins in the summer split.  
• Alive - ADC - second in kill share and third in kill participation.  
• Zergsting - SUP - fourth in KP%, only a few percentage points ahead of Crazy. Taking either top laner in this matchup could be contrary, and given the way DFM wants to dive top early could pay off nicely. 
• Bolulu - MID - led the team in kill share during the playoffs. 

Summary

1. TLDR - INF, HLE, C9, and DFM win, but god damm, it doesn't feel great liking all the favorites in a best-of-one format. Luckily the odds swing to the GAL side has me on the underdog there.  
2. I'll likely focus on HLE stacks with both sides of DFM/GAL to finish my lineups for this slate. Keeping HLE to some small stacks or leaving some money on the table will have to be how I keep my lineups a bit different today. 
3. Best of one, baby, and I'm prepared to be surprised again today. Blaber's flash for scuttle/scuttle for death trade at MSI might become one of the best plays ever to represent BO1. Any small misclick or poor decision can sway these matchups sending an obvious winner into the dumpster.  
4. FD continues to gerrymander the games to make up their main slate and has included the LNG/RED matchup. I've been fading the big names to start the tournament, but I cant help myself when it comes to targeting versus the CBLOL squad. They just bring the heat!
5. I'll be back tomorrow for the final big slate of the play-in stage, and then I'll fade back into obscurity. It's been fun to hang out with you all again and to sweat out these matchups. Until next time good luck, have fun, and I'll see you out there on the rift.