RADIO
We talked last week about just trusting good defenses and keeping them in your lineup, just as you would trust a struggling wide receiver or running back who was still getting a good opportunity share. I mentioned that we were beginning to narrow down metrics that supported future defensive production, like pressure rate and quarterback hurry rate, which are both parts of my BOD (Best Overall Defense formula). Then, I tried to put my money where my mouth was and kept a lot of defenses in seemingly mediocre matchups in the top-10, and it paid off with six of the top 10 defenses being correctly predicted.
I missed on Baltimore in part because I wasn't 100% sure how good they were as a defense and also because I thought it was the Chargers that were the far superior team. That's why I had the Chargers defense inside the top-10, and I missed on that. It's also become clear that the Broncos' early stats are propped up by an easy schedule to start the season, and their defense has now fallen into the middle of my rankings after a really poor showing against a fine but not tremendous Las Vegas offense. We also saw Buffalo's defense come out flat against a revived Tennessee offense, so even though the Bills got another turnover, they failed to record a sack and finished well outside of the top-10. We keep learning and adapting, as we do with every position in fantasy football.
So, where do we go from here? Well, if the metrics are telling me that a defense is good, I'm not going to turn away from them. I may move them down a few spots if a matchup is particularly tough, but I'm going to trust the pressure rate in the same way I would trust opportunity share for a running back. I'm going to trust the quarterback hurry rate or the turnover percentage the same way I'd trust the target share of a receiver. I may not always get the ceiling performance from that defense, but I think the consistency will be there at the end of the day, and I'll be rostering an impactful defense more often than not.
As a reminder, make sure to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week goes on. When we get injury news or troubling weather information, I will update the rankings accordingly, which is why Arizona jumped up after publishing time when we found out that Nick Chubb was going to miss the game and that the winds were going to be a factor.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 7 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, IDP leagues, recommended FAAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era. This year, it hasn't gotten much better, with teams averaging 360.2 yards per game and 23.8 points per game.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 7 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (Pass Rush Win Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
Divided by Games Played
BOD is designed to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 7
Slowly but surely, the Arizona Cardinals keep climbing up the BOD rankings, moving up to number two this week. They are 7th in the NFL in pressure rate, 5th in the league in sacks, and 3rd in percentage of defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover. They are getting it done at all levels this year and are absolutely for real. Now they get a Houston offense that turned back into a pumpkin after their one-week explosion against New England (more on that later). Houston is 28th in the NFL in yards per play and 18th in sacks allowed. It's simply not a good offense, and certainly not one that can keep up with Arizona. I expect the Cardinals to score often, which will put their defense in a position to hound Davis Mills into sacks and picks.
This is still not the same dominant Los Angeles Rams defense. However, this is still one of the stronger units in the league, currently ranking 6th in BOD. They're 6th in percentage of defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover, 6th in QB hurry rate, and 3rd in sacks. They continue to be an incredibly hard team to run against and now face a Lions team that is 29th in the NFL in yards per play and 21st in sacks. Yes, this is a Jared Goff "Revenge Game," but I actually expect Matthew Stafford to be the one putting up the huge performance, which will likely lead to some garbage time points for the Lions, but I think the Rams will have already put up a strong showing by then.
Tampa Bay is back inside the top-10 in BOD! Yes, their secondary still has major injury concerns, but until they face a team that is going to consistently challenge them down the field, it's not going to matter. They won't get that challenge this week against Justin Fields and the Bears. The Bears offense is dead last in yards per play and dead last in sacks allowed. They have the fewest passing yards of any team in the league, totaling only 703 through six games. THAT'S CRAZY. For reference, the Bucs have 2,044 passing yards in the same amount of games. The Bears aren't going to be the team that takes advantage of the Bucs' secondary issues, so I expect the Bucs to make like hard for Fields.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 7
Nobody wants to give Carolina any respect. Yes, Sam Darnold hasn't looked that good the last two weeks, but that has nothing to do with this defense. They put up a top-10 performance against a strong Vikings offense and remain 3rd in my rankings. They're 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate, 9th in QB hurry rate, and 7th in yards allowed per play. They will also likely get Stephon Gilmore active this week and while we're not sure how much he'll play, that's a massive boost to their defense. The Giants lost two more offensive linemen on Sunday and likely Kadarius Toney as well. Saquon Barkley likely won't play in this game, and it's simply not a good offense. I'm playing Carolina with confidence.
The New Orleans used their bye week to get healthy just as they come in to face a Seahawks team that is anything but. The offense simply looked bland with Geno Smith at quarterback. Yes, they almost beat the Steelers, but I'm not sure that's saying much these days. Alex Collins is doing a solid job filling in for Chris Carson, but this Seahawks offense wasn't able to hit on any big plays on Sunday night and now will face a pretty consistent Saints defense that is also 5th in the NFL in the percentage of defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover. The Seahawks are also 28th in sacks allowed on the season, which gives the Saints multiple opportunities to accrue fantasy points against a weakened opponent.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 7
I see a lot of people seem to be down on Cleveland, but I think we may be letting their offensive woes play into how we view their defense. This is still a defense that is 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate and is tied for 3rd in sacks. They have not been getting too many turnovers, but that likely won't matter in this game as the Broncos only have eight turnovers in six games. However, the Broncos are 30th in sacks allowed and only middle of the pack in yards and points scored, which is why they allow the 5th-best finish to opposing defenses. With so many injuries for Cleveland, I expect the Browns to want to slow this game down, which will limit the point totals on both sides. The Browns will get to Teddy Bridgewater a few times and make this a solid defensive performance.
I'm not going to be making any proclamations that the Ravens defense is back. I think this is a good Ravens defense and they just dismantled a strong Chargers offense, but if we're going to trust the metrics, as we do with all positions, then it's important to point out that this Ravens defense is still a bit flawed. They're 23rd in the NFL in the percentage of defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover, 12th in pressure rate, 13th in sacks, and 12th in QB hurry rate. None of that is problematic, but it's also not the sign of an elite defensive unit. They've been beaten through the air too often this season, which is concerning before they face Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and company. The Bengals are 23rd in the NFL in sacks allowed, which is why the Ravens are a top-10 unit this week, but I'm not expecting a dominant performance.
This Denver defense has been exposed a bit in recent weeks, dropping from 3rd in the BOD rankings down to 13th. However, they're 4th in the NFL in QB hurry rate and 9th in pressure rate, which is important against a Browns team that figures to be without its top three offensive tackles. That's really good news for Von Miller. The Broncos have also had some issues containing the big play of late, but if Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. sit, I'm just not sure who the Browns can turn to for big plays, especially with Baker Mayfield getting a second opinion on his shoulder. This is banged up Browns team playing on a short week, so I expect this game to be ugly and would have no problem starting either defense.
Green Bay's defense has really come alive in recent weeks. They're currently 7th in yards allowed per play and 7th in the percentage of defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover, which is good because they're middle of the pack in pressure rate and below-average in QB hurry rate. However, we're starting to see this Washington offense come back down to earth a bit. They're 22nd in yards per play and 26th in turnover rate, which plays into the Packers' hands. Washington has allowed the fewest sacks in the league, which caps Green Bay's upside a bit, and stopping Terry McLaurin without Jaire Alexander might be a problem, but I am not a Taylor Heinicke believer, and I think the Green Bay defense can force him into a few mistakes and finish inside the top-10.
Perhaps it's time to take this Raiders defense seriously? Every time I have put my faith in Gus Bradley's unit this year, they have dropped the ball in the next game. Yet, they rank 11th in pressure rate, 7th in sacks, and 5th in yards allowed per play. They haven't been consistent, but they've shown flashes of being an aggressive and hard-hitting unit, and now they take on an Eagles offense that has really struggled with consistency as well. Jalen Hurts always seems to get his fantasy points, but it's not pretty on the way there. The Eagles are middle of the pack in terms of yards per play and sacks allowed, so this isn't an offense we need to fear, which keeps the Raiders inside the top-10 conversation.
Remember when I said we'd talk about New England giving up a massive offensive day to Houston? Well, here we are, talking about it. This is not a good Patriots defense. They rank 23rd in my BOD rankings thanks to being 31st in pressure rate and 28th in QB hurry rate while being middle of the pack in most other metrics used for BOD. However, the lone place for optimism this week is that the Patriots rank 11th in percentage of defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover, which is a good thing against Zach Wilson. However, the Jets are also coming off a bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for the Patriots defense, so I expect a little better of a showing. Regardless, after seeing what Davis Mills did to New England, I just can't bump that up that high. Say it with me, Don't Elevate Bad Defenses Too High Just Because of Matchup.
We do this dance every year with the Colts. They are a strong real-life defense that is just an average fantasy defense. They're 4th in the NFL in the percentage of defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover and then below average in everything else. They're 27th in yards allowed per play, dead last in pressure rate, and 31st in QB hurry rate. This 49ers offense isn't particularly strong, especially without George Kittle, but they're not pushovers. The Colts aren't going to get pressure, which is going to allow Jimmy Garoppolo to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers like Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. I actually think the 49ers come away with the win here.
Hey, so, the Jets' defense isn't that bad. They're 4th in the NFL in pressure rate, 14th in QB hurry rate, and 9th in yards allowed per play. By BOD rankings, they're actually better than the Patriots. They just constantly get put in bad positions by their offense. Since I also think the Patriots are a pretty bad team, I don't expect the Jets defense to be on the field with their backs to the end zone as much as they usually are. I think they can get after Mac Jones an offensive line that is 17th in sacks allowed on the season. In fact, the Patriots are allowing the MOST points to opposing fantasy defenses. The Jets are very much in play this week.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 7
The Bengals have been relatively solid on defense all season. They rank 5th in yards allowed per play, 10th in sacks, and 13th in QB hurry rate. They also have been pretty good at defending the deep passing, giving up only 5.7 net yards per pass attempt, which is 5th-best in the league. That's important because Lamar Jackson and the Ravens want to take deep shots. They have so many injuries at the running back position, and now Latavius Murray is hurt, so they have taken to the air with much success. That just might be tough this week. Another consequence of the Ravens becoming more of a passing team is that they are 24th in sacks allowed. I know we think that Lamar is elusive and escapes everything, but that's not the case, and the Bengals could absolutely pressure him in the pocket this weekend.
I know I said I think the 49ers will beat the Colts, but the Colts are also 3rd-best in points allowed to opposing fantasy defenses. It's generally not a good idea to play a defense against them, and this 49ers defense still has some kinks to iron out anyway.
Miami and Atlanta are both offenses we want to attack. Miami and Atlanta and both defenses we want to avoid using. It works out in the wash with them being middle-of-the-pack options that I don't really want to use this week.
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 7
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