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Welcome to the fantasy basketball risers and fallers column, a weekly look at the ebbs and flows of player performance. You'll get a detailed analysis of who's hot and who's not and why that will or will not remain the case. You can expect forward-looking analysis and a mix of immediate and long-term fantasy considerations.
Who's exceeding expectations? Who's falling short of expectations? Let's take a look at some early season trends!
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Fantasy Basketball Risers
Miles Bridges - F, Charlotte Hornets
Miles Bridges should have been on this list last week. He will probably deserve to be on this list next week, the week after that, and the week after that, that's how well he's playing right now. After failing to come to an extension with the Hornets this offseason, Bridges is undoubtedly earning himself some extra money with his early-season performance. After nine games, Bridges is averaging 24.1 points, eight rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one block, while shooting 48.2% from the field, 37.1% from three, and 86.8% from the free-throw line. Nothing about his performance looks particularly unsustainable, either. It went under the radar, but last season, Bridges nearly joined the illustrious 50/40/90 club. He finished the year with shooting percentages of 50/40/86. His slightly reduced three-point percentage is to be expected, given that he's taking three more attempts a game this season and at 37% he's still above the league average of 34% this season. Combine that with his improved handle, finishing around the basket, and playmaking and you've got a budding All-Star. Bridges isn't as skilled a scorer as someone like Jayson Tatum, but he is versatile and efficient. After nine games, Bridges is 17th in the NBA in points off catch-and-shoot shots and 15th in points off drives, per NBA.com. If you crowd Bridges, he can blow by you for a thunderous dunk or bully his way into the paint for a soft running layup or half-hook. If you lose him in the swirl of the Hornets' offense he'll consistently bury his spot-up looks—he's shooting 44.7% on catch-and-shoot threes this season.
Maybe Bridges' overall field goal percentage drops some over the course of the season due to the fact that he's doing a lot more self-creation this year that wouldn't be a huge surprise. But in the end, Bridges is just a better player and the aggregate result of that should be increased production and total value for fantasy managers.
Cole Anthony - G, Orlando Magic
It would have been reasonable to expect Cole Anthony's breakout game against the New York Knicks on October 24—where he tallied 29 points, 16 rebounds, eight assists, one steal, and just one turnover—would be a one-off, maybe even the high-water mark of his sophomore season. But that hasn't been the case at all, Anthony has scored in double figures in all nine of the Orlando Magic's games this season and scored 24 or more points four times so far this year. Those 29 points aren't even his season-high so far this year, as Anthony scored 31 points in the Magic's win against the Timberwolves on Monday night. Anthony has clearly improved and with Markelle Fultz sidelined and Jalen Suggs experiencing some growing pains, especially on the offensive end, Anthony should get plenty of opportunities. He's averaging 34.2 minutes per game this year, up from 27.1 mpg last season. Anthony's increased scoring (up from 12.9 points last year to 18.7 points this season) is built on some impressive pull-up three-point shooting. Anthony is shooting 40.3% overall on threes and even more impressive 50% on pull-up threes. Unlike Miles Bridges, it's reasonable to expect a significant amount of regression. It's incredibly unlikely that Anthony continues to shoot this well on pull-up threes. Nonetheless, given that he shot just 33.7% on threes overall last year, and 34.7% on pull-up threes, Anthony's improvements as a shooter are a great sign for his long-term prospects.
Franz Wagner - F, Orlando Magic
Unlike his Orlando Magic teammate, Franz Wagner is doing the majority of his damage as a spot-up shooter, rather than a pull-up three-point shooter. Wagner is shooting 42.2% on catch-and-shoot three-pointers and he's smartly not taking many pull-up threes. Wagner has so far lived up to his reputation as a shooter, but that's not all he's doing well. Wagner's size, ball-handling, and cutting have had an immediate impact in the NBA. Wagner is shooting 60.4% on twos from less than 10 feet, and 55.9% overall on all of his twos. After nine games Wagner is averaging 14.9 points, three rebounds, one assist, one steal, and 0.6 blocks, with shooting splits of 49/41/66. He had a breakout game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on November 1, finishing the game with 28 points, four rebounds, two assists, two steals, and one block. He made five threes in the game, but also scored well around the basket, including an impressive dunk over two defenders. Sam Vecenie, of The Athletic, highlights and describes the versatility of Wagner's game well in the tweet and video below:
Fantasy Basketball Fallers
De'Aaron Fox - G, Sacramento Kings
De'Aaron Fox had his best game of the season on November 3, scoring 19 points (8-14 FG, 2-3 3PT) and adding two rebounds, 5 assists, and just one turnover. However, even after that performance, Fox's numbers remain down across the board from last year. This season he's averaging 17.9 points, four rebounds, six assists, one steal, 0.3 blocks, and three turnovers with shooting splits of 38/19/62. Last season, he averaged 25.2 points, three rebounds, seven assists, one steal, 0.5 blocks, and three turnovers, with shooting splits of 47/32/71. It's been a really rough start to the season for Fox and one of the more concerning elements might be his free-throw shooting. Fox is a career 71.6% from the free-throw line, but the year by year numbers have mostly been trending down, if ever so slightly. Fox is a speedy, attacking guard, who you'd like to see get to the free-throw line more—his free throw attempts are also down from seven to five a game this season—but if he continues to struggle at the free-throw line, will he start to shy away from contact? I'm still expecting Fox to turn it around, but I am somewhat concerned.
Damian Lillard - G, Portland Trail Blazers
Speaking of unexpectedly long slumps! Like Fox, Damian Lillard remains unable to find his rhythm offensively. After eight games, Lillard is averaging 19.5 points, 3 rebounds, eight assists, 0.6 steals, and two turnovers, with shooting splits of 35/23/87. After the Portland Trail Blazers loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on November 3, Lillard told reporters he irritated an ongoing abdomen injury. It's the same injury Lillard dealt with in the Olympics, and it appears to have been something he's dealt with for multiple seasons—news to me! Maybe there are rest days incoming for Lillard? It's probably too late to sell Lillard at a markup, but it might be worth considering if you can coax a haul out of a less active manager in your league.
D'Angelo Russell - G, Minnesota Timberwolves
D'Angelo Russell is having a less than stellar start to the season, even by his relatively inefficient standards. This year he's averaging 14.8 points, three rebounds, four assists, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks, and three turnovers, with shooting splits of 35/28/76. The 14.8 ppg is the lowest since his rookie season. Russell will score more, he's too skilled and his usage is too high for him to be kept down all season. However, to go along with his slow start, he's now sidelined due to an ankle injury—an occurrence almost as consistent as Russell hovering around league average true shooting percentage for the majority of his career. In the right year, Russell can meaningfully help your fantasy team, but there's very little upside with a player like Russell. He's never shot above 43% from the field and the impact of his solid three-point shooting is lessened by his low frequency and poor efficiency around the basket.
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