RADIO
It's time for Week 9 of the NFL season and the midway point of the fantasy season. After an uneventful trade deadline, this week has been rife with drama off the field with big names like Aaron Rodgers and Odell Beckham grabbing headlines. Let's turn our attention back to the gridiron and which players may disappoint for performance-based reasons.
It's more critical than ever to make the right lineup decisions and start the right players to put out your optimal lineups, as we are getting into the point in the season where managers could be digging themselves a hole too deep to climb out of.
Listed below are players who could be in for a disappointing performance relative to their overall expectations. No matter how bad of a matchup some of these players may have, fantasy managers may have a tough time leaving them on the bench but if you can afford it, you may want to do just that in Week 9.
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QB - Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Is Saquon Barkley going to play? Probably not. Who's going to be catching passes for the Giants? Who knows. Sterling Shepard is out, Dante Pettis is on IR, Kenny Golladay is perpetually hurt and questionable for this game, and Kadarius Toney is a headache. The never-ending game of musical chairs in the receiver room and lack of explosiveness at running back has wreaked havoc on the offense. Daniel Jones has passed for fewer than 250 yards in four straight games with a 3-4 TD-INT rate. Even in a smash spot against the Chiefs' reeling defense, he busted.
This week doesn't present a great matchup for the Giants, as the Raiders are fresh off their bye week. Their defense is much improved over last year and that has made them a top-12 defense vs opposing QBs. We often give Jones the benefit of the doubt because of his rushing ability but this isn't a great situation for him in that regard either. The Raiders allowed 86 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson in the season opener and 61 to Jalen Hurts in their last game but other than that they've allowed a total of 54 rushing yards to QBs in the other five games. There simply isn't enough upside to go with Jones until they have more playmakers back on the field simultaneously.
RB - Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
Herbert was a sixth-round pick who began the year third on the depth chart with little chance of being a fantasy contributor. Over the last four weeks, he has been nothing short of a revelation for Chicago. He is averaging 86 yards on the ground despite only starting two of those games. He's also chipped in nine catches for 44 yards and one touchdown. David Montgomery has begun to practice but won't play in Week 9 and Damien Williams has missed practice, making it possible he sits out as well. That would seem to make Herbert a strong RB2 play but the matchup says differently.
I've warned against starting RBs against the Steelers in the past and this week continues that trend. They held Nick Chubb to 61 yards on 16 carries last week and have only allowed one 100-yard rusher all year (Alex Collins, oddly enough). Herbert will face a tough Pittsburgh front in a hostile environment in a game with a low 39.5 over/under where the Bears are six-point underdogs. His lone touchdown on the season underscores the main limitation with Herbert: the Bears don't score very much. Having a running quarterback doesn't help either. While I don't expect a complete bust performance in Week 9, it should be a down game for him and possibly his last hurrah before returning to a backup role.
RB - Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons
Davis hasn't performed nearly to the level his quads would have us believe this season. His season-high for rushing yards in a game is 53 and his receiving high is 25 yards. He is averaging 3.8 yards per touch and has two touchdowns total. He could be considered a bust nearly every week at this point.
With Calvin Ridley out, the thinking for RB-desperate owners might go something like this: "They'll have to run the ball more and maybe use Cordarrelle Patterson as a receiver, so Davis will get more touches." That may prove true to some extent but it's not as if the Falcons will abruptly stop passing the ball at a high rate. Even with 20 carries, that shouldn't result in much production vs the Saints. They remain the best defense at limiting yards to running back with an average of 3.02 yards per carry. Desperate times call for desperate measures but I'd rather take a shot on Kenny Gainwell and get my heart broken again than to fool myself into thinking Davis will do something for my fantasy team when he hasn't all year.
WR - Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Your top fantasy receiver after Week 5 was Cooper Kupp, followed immediately by Mike Williams as the overall WR2. Since Week 6, he's fallen a bit... down to WR105. It's a small sample but it still illustrates how dramatically things have changed. Williams has been feast or famine so far with a pair of monster games, a pair of really good games, and three absolute stinkers.
image from RotoViz
The question is whether he is that matchup-dependent, if Justin Herbert is to blame, or if something else is going on. Some are starting to suspect that defenses are "figuring out" Herbert or that he's hitting a sophomore slump but it might be as simple as strength of schedule. Their first three opponents represented three of the worst pass defenses in the league, while the Raiders, Patriots, and Ravens are far tougher. If so, we should be worried about the passing game as they face the Eagles in Week 9.
Since facing Kansas City in Week 4, the Eagles are allowing 115.7 receiving yards a game to WRs. In particular, outside receivers are getting the clamp from Darius Slay and that means Williams in this case. The touchdown upside is always present but don't be surprised if this winds up as the fourth dud in the past five games.
WR - Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots
It's unclear why Meyers continues to linger among the WR3/Flex options when he just doesn't produce at that level. We already know he won't score a touchdown (I'm sure it'll happen one of these days) and he only has one game over 70 yards on the season. Target volume is usually the best metric to follow for receiver production but in this case, it isn't enough.
It has also been underreported that Mac Jones has been disappointing since nearly beating the Bucs in Week 4. His outburst against the hapless Jets has masked an otherwise drab stretch over the past month. Even if you include that game, Jones has only thrown five touchdowns and an average of 246 yards per game over the previous four contests. This is a run-first offense, especially in the red zone, which is why Meyers simply has no ceiling. In a matchup with Carolina's secondary that allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers and now has Stephon Gilmore on board, Meyers is a non-consideration.
TE - C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals
The ranks of the must-start tight ends keep thinning so we have to resort to warning away from streamers. Uzomah has been the worst kind of fantasy asset - one who only booms when it's not expected and doesn't benefit anyone. His two big games came in a victory over Jacksonville and a 41-17 blowout over Baltimore. In games where Cincy loses, he averages 15.5 yards per game. Four of his touchdowns on the season came in those two big games.
I'm not predicting that the Bengals lose to the Browns, although it's certainly possible, but this promises to be a close divisional contest and not one where Uzomah will have free reign to roam down the middle of the field. There are other TE streamers such as Tyler Conklin and Albert Okwuegbunam that have more upside.
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