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Welcome to the fantasy basketball risers and fallers column, a weekly look at the ebbs and flows of player performance. You'll get a detailed analysis of who's hot and who's not and why that will or will not remain the case. You can expect forward-looking analysis and a mix of immediate and long-term fantasy considerations.
Who's exceeding expectations? Who's falling short of expectations? Let's take a look at some early season trends!
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Fantasy Basketball Risers
Seth Curry- G, Philadelphia 76ers
The younger splash brother (by birth) has firmly settled into his role as a solid starter for the Philadelphia 76ers. Long gone are the days of questioning whether or not the shooting and feisty defense will last. Seth Curry is here to stay. Curry is efficient, reliable, and one of the best shooters in the NBA. His numbers on the season speak for themselves: 15.9 points, three rebounds, two assists, and 0.8 steals, while shooting 49.5% from the field, 40.8% from three, and 91.3% from the free-throw line. There's even reason to believe he'll shoot better from three as the season progresses—he's never shot below 42% from three. He's also playing 33.9 minutes a game this season and shooting 62.9% within 10 feet of the basket—both would be career-highs for a full season. Unfortunately for the younger Curry, he came up just short of outscoring Wardell for the first time in their NBA careers in this week's matchup, as Seth finished with 24 points and Steph finished with 25.
Tyrese Maxey - G, Philidelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey has been even more impressive than Seth Curry this season, especially when you consider all the pressure that was thrust on him the moment Ben Simmons declared he had no intention to play for the 76ers this season. He was instrumental in the 76ers impressive start to the season before covid and injury absences depleted the roster and he's certainly outperformed my expectations. On the season, he's averaging 18.5 points, three rebounds, four assists, and 0.8 steals, with shooting splits of 49/38/88. It's hard to overstate how impressive Maxey's been this season, but let's just focus on his increased efficiency. Maxey is shooting 38.7% from three compared to just 30.1% from three last seasons and he's shooting 58% from less than 10 feet compared to just 53.1% last season. Playing more minutes, taking more shots, and making more of those shots is a good recipe for improvement and surplus value. Anyone who shied away from Ben Simmons or bet on Maxey as a high-end handcuff at the draft is feeling great right now. Given Maxey's youth, pre-NBA pedigree, and the skill development he's already shown since joining the 76ers, there's no reason he shouldn't continue to improve as he gets older.
Juan Toscano-Anderson- F, Golden State Warriors
Juan Toscano-Anderson plays for the out of nowhere juggernaut that is the 2021-22 Golden State Warriors and he essentially plays the same position as Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Otto Porter Jr, Nemanja Bjelica, and recent top-10 pick Jonathan Kuminga. As a result, he's likely never going to be anything but a streaming option in fantasy, but his recent performances suggest that you can stream him with confidence when the time arises. The excess offensive threats around Curry this season appear to have taken Toscano-Anderson's handoff and fake handoff game to a whole new level. At least once a game, it seems, Toscano-Anderson fakes a handoff to Curry and rumbles down the lane for a thunderous dunk. He helped right the Warriors' ship against the 76ers on Wednesday and kept up his strong play in the mostly comfortable victory over the Blazers on Friday. His final line against the 76ers: 13 points (6-6 FG), six rebounds, six assists, one steal, and two blocks in just 25 minutes. He won't see consistent minutes, but his combination of size, skill, and basketball feel make him a perfect fit around Steph Curry.
Marvin Bagley III - F, Sacramento Kings
Marvin Bagley has had one wild journey to start his NBA career. He's been plagued by injuries, been banished to the bench, and we've heard more from his father and agent than we hear from just about any NBA player's family and management. In the present, however, Alvin Gentry is now the head coach of the Sacramento Kings and Bagley has played in their last seven games. Bagley is not necessarily blowing you away with his production, but any playing time is a boon for his value. Luke Walton's firing likely signals further change in Sacramento. I'm not confident Bagley has the skill or commitment to the defensive end required to make him a reliable NBA player and therefore a reliable fantasy option, but maybe he can turn into a good stats (points and rebounds), bad team guy. At this point in his career, that seems like the best and most reasonable expectation for his future. While we're a long way away from that scenario, consistent playing time is a start.
Fantasy Basketball Fallers
Derrick White - G, San Antonio Spurs
The promise Derrick White showed in the 2020 NBA bubble has not been realized in the seasons since. White struggled with injuries last season, but he's been mostly healthy this year and simply hasn't produced. Outside of assists and steals his numbers are down across the board this season. For the season, he's averaging 11.4 points, three rebounds, five assists, one steal, and one block, with shooting splits of 38/28/82. It's hard to be an impactful player shooting this poorly from the field. White is taking fewer shots, fewer threes, and getting to the free-throw line less this season. His increased three-point volume was one of the encouraging parts of his bubble play and his limited playing time last season. I'm not quite sure how to explain this across-the-board-efficiency dip, but it seems clear we need to readjust our expectations for White. It may be time to stop expecting significant improvement from a player who is already 27 years old with a significant injury history. White should be capable of raising his both his field goal and three-point percentages, but any hope of White becoming an All-Star or just below All-Star level player seems out of the question now.
Lonnie Walker - G, San Antonio Spurs
Like Derrick White, Lonnie Walker is struggling shooting the ball this season and given that Walker's role is one of microwave scorer off the bench, this is a problem. For the season, Walker is averaging 10.4 points, two rebounds, two assists, and 0.7 steals, with shooting splits of 37/28/80. Last season, he averaged 11.2 points, two rebounds, one assist, and 0.5 steals, with shooting splits of 42/35/81. Given that Walker hasn't really grown into more of a playmaker, his unspectacular shooting efficiency makes him a largely uninspiring player. Walker is an impressive vertical athlete with good burst, but he has so far been unable to leverage those athletic gifts into increased scoring volume or efficiency. Walker seems to lack the requisite combination of functional athleticism and feel needed to raise his ceiling as a player. He's still young and could continue to improve, but the Spurs did not extend him this offseason, so he very well could be in a new situation next season.
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