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Sunday afternoon features the 2022 season opener better known as the Daytona 500. The race takes place on a 2.5-mile super speedway track (200 laps in all). Monkey Knife Fight has an extremely easy fantasy point system: 0.1 points for each lap led and then a set amount of points for their position (20 for 1st place, 19 for 2nd place, 18 for 3rd, and so on).
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We'll be helping you along every day and night where there's a race, by providing you with expert prop picks all NASCAR season long here at RotoBaller. RapidFire picks will return in a few weeks once we have a baseline with the Next-Gen car.
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Pick 1: More Or Less Fantasy Points
As promised, the shots we are taking with More Or Less begin again. This week at Daytona is our first shot. It is good to be back.
The season opener is a different process this year with the Next-Gen car. Also, there's the volatility that comes from the supers-speedway itself. Look at last year. There were two big crashes and that resulted in a lot of changes. This included Michael McDowell winning his first ever NASCAR Cup Series event. Forgive us, for a shorter than usual column. The season opener does not have a whole lot of data to go on. We fly blind like the rest of you.
At any rate, let us get back to business.
The idea that Kyle Larson is set at just 15.5 points seems crazy. Then, Joey Logano only comes in at 14.5 points. That also feels ridiculously low. However, once a person takes a deeper look, there is a simple understanding.
We plan to risk this, get crazy, and take the LESS on both of these drivers.
Yes, Kyle Larson won ten races last year but guess which track he did not, Daytona. Larson's best finish was 7th in 2019 as a member of Chip Ganassi Racing. The other best finishes were tenth (including last year). He has only led 17 laps in his career at Daytona and one in the last four seasons. The odds Larson picks up a lot of cheap points from leading laps seems low. There is also the chances that any driver could crash.
The Next-Gen package favors drivers not named Larson. Now, Hendrick Motorsports Racing made Friday all about drafting to try and gauge how they could pass and be passed on the track during various span runs. It is why the LESS is taking traction for the action.
Joey Logano has a different problem. He is down to his backup car after wrecking the primary just before the end of his duel race. His backup car is allegedly slower than the primary and needs quite a few adjustments.
So, it's a risky bet here on both fronts and a bet on the LESS is worth a shot.
RapidFire Picks: Kyle Larson. (LESS), Joey Logano (LESS)
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Pick 2: Even More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Denny Hamlin MORE 14.5 Fantasy Points, Ryan Blaney LESS 14.5 Fantasy Points
This prop here could work out nicely if things go as expected. This is Daytona however and nothing goes as expected. That is the first rule of a volatile track like Daytona. It is a 2.5-mile super speedway with high bank angles and lots of areas to get in trouble.
Anyway, we get Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney for the second MKF prop of the season. Give Monkey Knife Fight a lot of credit here, they saved one of the best for last. This will be difficult and it can go either way.
These point totals are quite intriguing. There are 200 laps in all (unless there's overtime). Three of the four previous races have gone to overtime (7.7, and 9 laps respectively). Extra laps mean the possibility of both drivers leading more laps. That is a risk I am willing to take when it comes to Blaney especially. His unfortunate knack for crashing at Daytona outweighs his potential to finish well.
Take the MORE with Denny Hamlin and the LESS with Ryan Blaney. Watch Hamlin get more than 14.5 points on Sunday as he could lead some laps. The Ryan Blaney one is interesting The feeling is the No. 12 car either crashes or comes well inside the top ten. There may be no in-between. We take the former and not the latter.
Pick 2/2 Correctly to 2.5x Your Buy-in
Play the More or Less Contest now on Monkey Knife Fight
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