RADIO
Even though there has been a lot of attention centered elsewhere during the NBA free agency frenzy, there are some big things going on in Boston for the young Celtics. They lost Evan Turner to the Portland Trailblazers and let Jared Sullinger leave for the Toronto Raptors, they decided to keep Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko, they added six rookies in the NBA Draft, and most importantly they finally made a big free agency signing by grabbing Al Horford away from the Atlanta Hawks. The 6-10, 245 lbs., 30-year old veteran center signed a four-year, $113 million contract to play for a Boston squad that finished 5th in the Eastern Conference last season with a 48-34 record. The signing of Horford and other Celtic off-season moves may not have lit the world on fire like a particular signing in the Bay area, but Boston's new-look roster will have some serious implications for Fantasy Basketball in the 2016-2017 season.
A New Big Man in Green: Al Horford and the Celtics
First and foremost, let's look at what Al Horford brings to the table. His durability has been questionable since between 2011-2014 he averaged just 38 games per season. However he has erased doubts about his health by playing in 76 games in the 2014-2015 season averaging 30.5 minutes per game and then playing the full 82 games last season in 32.1 minutes each contest. Last season he averaged 15.2 points per game and made big strides in his long-range game. He shot 34.4% from beyond the arc in 3.1 3PT field goal attempts per game, which was more than six times his previous career high. He averaged 1.5 blocks per game last season, and he has been a very consistent shot blocker, never averaging less than a block per game since his rookie year in 2007. Horford is also very consistent in producing steady, non-high volume steal totals, averaging between 0.7 and 1.1 steals per game every year of his nine year career.
Between 2007 and 2014 Horford was a monster on the glass averaging 9.53 rebounds per game in 420 games, however in the last two seasons, Horford has slowed down a bit by averaging 7.22 boards each outing. The extra few elite rebounds may be the result of Big Al turning 30 and toning down his level of aggressiveness to preserve his health. Horford is also a great passing big man as demonstrated by him averaging 3.2 assists per game for the last two seasons. He is joining a team in much need of his imposing presence in the paint. The leading rebounder in Boston last year was Jared Sullinger who brought in 8.3 on average, while Amir Johnson and Jae Crowder were next in line with 6.4 and 5.1 per game, and the fourth and fifth place rebounders Evan Turner (4.9) and David Lee (4.3) are no longer on the roster. Interior defense wasn't exactly intimidating for the Celtics last season. Amir Johnson led the team with 1.1 blocks per game while fellow big men Sullinger, Crowder, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller, and Jonas Jerebko managed just 0.45 blocks per game in 361 games between them.
Boston did just fine in steals last season, finishing second in the NBA with 9.2 team steals per game and sporting six players who averaged 0.8 steals per game or game with Crowder leading the team with 1.7. Had Horford been with the Celtics last season he would've tied with Avery Bradley for the team's second best scorer while Isaiah Thomas led the team at 22.2 points per game. Horford will most fill the team's need for interior defense, rebounding support, and more skilled play down low with his passing ability. His ability to stretch the floor will also help Boston, considering their 3PT field goal percentage of 33.5% last season was third worst in the NBA. At the very least, replacing the 1.3 attempts per game taken by Sullinger at a 28.2% clip with Horford's 34.4% rate will be a nice boon.
Horford always had Paul Millsap in Atlanta to take away eight or nine of his rebounding chances but in Boston, Horford is sure to be the best rebounder on the team and should average equal to or more than his rate from last season as a Hawk. He is bigger and far more skilled as a traditional C/PF than Johnson and Olynyk. There is no reason his assist and steals totals should shift to the left or right much. There are plenty of scoring guards for Horford to kick it out to and steals are rather independent especially when noting that his Hawks squad from last season averaged just 0.1 less steal per game. Horford will also represent a big upgrade for Boston in the paint because his 2PT field goal percentage of .557 last season is considerably higher than both Sullinger's and Olynyk's marks of .458 and .486. Horford will be seeing the floor a lot to make up for the Celtics' lack of intimidating interior defense, so his shot block totals should also remain in tact. Horford's move to Boston mostly has the impact of making the Celtics a better team, while the transition should affect his statistical production little if it does at all.
The real impact will be seen how Horford's presence affects the statistical impact by the rest of the team. In theory, Horford will eat up the minutes played by the departing Sullinger and Tyler Zeller (a combined 35.4 mpg). But it is possible that Amir Johnson also sees some of his playing time cut, as he is an older player who offers similar skill set to Horford's while the younger Kelly Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko offer more finesse and guard skills.
Also by gaining the offensively efficient Horford, it makes the business of being floor general easier on Boston's guards. Less attention will have to be paid to the perimeter and players like Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Smart could see a nice increase in assist volume with the reliable three-time All-Star manning the block.
Losing Evan Turner to Portland certainly leaves some well-rounded production to be replaced in the heart of Boston's lineup. The 6-7 alumni of Ohio State played two seasons and 163 games for the Celtics and in that time averaged 10.0 points, 1.0 steal, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.o assists in 27.8 minutes per game; though he was a very poor shooter with a 26.2 3PT percentage in 202 attempts. Considering Turner was fifth on the team in steals, fourth in minutes; rebounding; and scoring, and second in assists; Turner's game-to-game production is likely to be recovered in parts by other well-rounded guards and forwards Thomas, Crowder, Bradley, and Marcus Smart. Smart in particular is likely to see a big opportunity in the secondary ball-handling role Turner filled last season. It is also possible that young guns R.J. Hunter, James Young, and Terry Rozier get extended opportunities in Turner's absence, but Boston is already such a guard heavy offense that there seems to be little room to work either of the three into a meaningful fantasy role.
Then there is the business of all of Boston's rookies. Let's start with their #3 overall selection, Jaylen Brown from Califnornia. Brown is a 6-6 G/F combo who has very good length with a wingspan that has measured at seven feet long. He has strong athleticism and size that has drawn comparisons to the likes of Jimmy Butler and Jason Richardson. He struggled to adjust to the college level of play this year, however. He averaged 14.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and utilized his length poorly with just 0.8 steals per game in 27.6 minutes per contest. He also is a very poor distance shooter with a long-rate success rate of just 29.4%...and that was from the college line. He's got long term promise, but is a project so he should probably be avoided in most fantasy formats.
Next the Celtics took 6-8 French power forward Guerschon Yabusele 16th overall. Last season he fared well in the LNB Pro A league with 11.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.1 steal, and a 3PT field goal percentage of 42.6% in 61 shots. He is strong and long with a 7'1'' wingspan but is undersized for the standard of NBA power forwards, which is why it is such a plus that he can shoot, and lacks athleticism with an underwhelming 27.5 inch max vertical leap. He has been very impressive in Summer League so far, and talk that he may end up taking one of the last spots on the roster for the Celtics despite originally looking like an obvious draft-and-stash.
Next off the board was another European prospect in Ante Zizic from Croatia. He is a 6-11 254 lbs. center who has demonstrated nice big man skills with the KK Cibona club as a teenager. In the 2014-2015 season he averaged 1.4 blocks and 5.4 rebounds in 21 minutes per game and last season produced 1.3 blocks and 8.5 rebounds in 26.6 minutes each game. Zizic profiles similar physically to Yabusele as he has a 7'2'' wingspan and 27 inch vertical leap. He will clearly be stashed in Europe.
In the second round Boston selected Notre Dame point guard Demetrius Jackson 45th, Providence power forward Ben Bentil 51st, and Iowa State small forward Abdel Nader 58th. Averaging 1.4 steals for his last two college seasons, a much improved 4.7 assists per game last year, and boasting a career 3PT percentage of 38%, Jackson was a steal in the second round who could compliment Marcus Smart's style of play nicely. Ben Bentil averaged 21.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 1.0 block per game for the Friars this past season, but he is an undersized power forward at 6-8 who would struggle to find a place on the Celtics roster crowded with players who have the same skill set but are much bigger and time tested at the NBA level. The same goes for 6-6 Abdel Nader who had a much improved final season for the Cyclones by averaging 12.9 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game while bring his percentage from beyond the arc from 21.7% to a solid 37.1%. Nader could potentially offer more to the Celtics with the departure of similar style player Evan Turner. Nader offers some nice all-around production and measures up very well physically for a 6-6 small forward with a 7'1'' wingspan and an eye-popping 40 inch vertical leap.
Most of the rookies shouldn't make too significant of an impact, and will have a hard time cracking the roster. Boston has several players cemented in as contributors at every position and there have been juicy rumors swirling about a possible swap of some of the young talent for Sacramento star Demarcus Cousins. Boston is putting a lot of eggs in the European prospect basket and is willing to wait to see that vision manifest into reality.
A sleeper for the 2016-2017 season is former LSU Tiger, 22-year old 6-8 forward Jordan Mickey. Mickey has also faced questions about being undersized as an NBA forward, but in the age of Draymond Green that's no longer a career death sentence, and he has put some of those concerns to bed in a limited sample size last season. He played in 16 NBA games and played just 3.6 minutes per game. In that small quantity of time he averaged 0.8 rebounds and 0.7 blocks per game. While that doesn't sound impressive, those figures translate to averaging 8.8 rebounds and a phenomenal 6.9 blocks per 36 minutes played. Also in D-League action Mickey played 33.3 minutes per game and averaged 10.3 rebounds and 4.4 blocks per game. Mickey even averaged 9.9 rebounds and 3.6 blocks per game in his final season in college. Mickey may be undersized, but no one can deny how game changing his defensive skills are. If the Celtics have a few injuries, Mickey could have a Bismack Biyombo type impact on the boards and glass.
