RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~170 Overall
CURRENT ADP: 180+ (Undrafted)
ANALYSIS: Humphries moved from Tampa to Tennessee before last season, which resulted in a notable rise in ADP (from WR99 in 2018 to WR70 in 2019) but also in a huge drop-off in production (from 188.7 PPR points two seasons ago to a measly 86.5 last year). He went from 105 targets to 47. 76 catches to 37. 816 yards to 374 yards. 51 yards per game to 31.2 yards per game.
Numbers don't lie, and now fantasy GMs seem to be way low on the chances of Humphries rebounding and having a good season in his second year playing for the Titans.
But look at the receiving situation in Tennessee. Tajae Sharpe's 35 targets are gone. Corey Davis's 69 targets aren't gone, but Davis has largely been a disappointment since being drafted and doesn't offer Ryan Tannehill the same level of safety that Humphries does -- Davis had a 62.3 percent catch rate last year, while Humphries was at 78.7 percent.
Tennessee also largely ignored the receiving corps this offseason, further solidifying the fact that three-receiver sets will be A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and Adam Humphries. I think in full-PPR leagues, Humphries at his current draft stock is a much better value than whatever draft pick you'd have to burn on Davis.
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