RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~62 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~71
ANALYSIS: Fantasy managers are likely cautious around Thielen because he was injured last year and is 32 years old. Those are all valid reasons, but WR34? In the last five years, he’s been a top-15 receiver four times. In fact, you might be surprised to find out that Thielen’s point-per-game average last year (12.8) was the same as Keenan Allen's.
You might also be surprised to find out that his point per game average last year was higher than CeeDee Lamb, Michael Pittman Jr., A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Jaylen Waddle, and Marquise Brown. Every single one of them is being drafted higher than Thielen and not by a little either. The lowest any of them are being drafted is Metcalf at WR26. The next closest is Waddle at WR17.
It really is crazy to think that you can currently draft a player with that kind of fantasy production at WR34, whose situation actually got better!
We know why Metcalf’s ADP has plummeted – Drew Lock and Geno Smith. That’s easy. On some level, it’s understandable. However, for Thielen, the Vikings hired a more up-tempo head coach in Kevin O’Connell, who is coming over from two years under Sean McVay.
They’re incorporating a more pass-centric offense, which should increase the number of targets to go around.
We know Justin Jefferson is going to be the No. 1, but there’s nothing to indicate Thielen won’t be the No. 2 on what should be a very exciting offense.
The Vikings’ defense still looks suspect, which will put this offense in a lot of unfavorable situations, but highly favorable for fantasy managers. If Thielen finishes as a mid-WR2 in 2022, we really shouldn’t be surprised and he can be drafted at times as your WR4.
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