ADP Arbitrage - Quarterback Draft Bargains

Let's finish up this series with a look at the all-important quarterback position. When you're done, you should look back at running back, wide receiver, and tight end ADP comps as well.

We all agree that ADP is helpful to a certain extent and can help you be informed about where players may be selected. That said, it shouldn't have as much weight as to affect your decisions massively. Take Lamar Jackson's 2019 season: 417.7 PPR points, second-best in the whole NFL, and current holder of a 21 ADP that is seeing him drafted inside the first two rounds of drafts. Does that mean you should absolutely trust Jackson having another monster year that when all is said and done gives you a good return on investment after paying a second-round pick for him? Nope! In fact, the most logical thing to happen is having Jackson regressing and finishing with average numbers in 2020.

For the reasons listed above, I've been going through the four offensive positions of fantasy football highlighting some names that are going for cheap in drafts these days and how they are expected to produce similar numbers to other much more hyped players demanding owners to take much riskier bets and to pay way higher prices.

Identifying Overpriced QBs

I'm not going to play games in this column and bring middling names to the table, no. Instead of that, I'll be going for the fences and swinging the bat with all of the power to get some fantasy-heavy names here and there. No second-tier players here, that is.

This season there are two clear "overpriced" quarterbacks getting drafted inside the first three rounds: Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. Now hear me out. Both Jackson and Mahomes are probably worth at least a second-round pick these days. I wouldn't pay that for any of him (the upside is massive, though, so I'd understand you doing so to a certain extent) and I would rather look for cheaper options with similar production but much cheaper ADP.

Here is what I'm looking for when trying to identify comps for these two players at lower spots. If we build some sort of "combined profile" of the two, we can land at something close to

• At least 265 PPR on the season (that would have been good for QB12 last year)
• At least 185 fantasy points passing, as that is the main and most-reliable trait of a quarterback
• At least 80 fantasy points rushing, as the upside of rushing quarterbacks is more obvious each passing year (Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, and Josh Allen proved why in 2019).

Identifying QB Bargains with RD4+ ADP

After applying those filters and thresholds to the data from the 2019 season this is what I was left with.

Not bad, eh? Lamar Jackson is absolutely ahead of the pack if looking at his 2019 total PPR, and Mahomes is not but we can give him the benefit of the doubt and expect some positive regression as he played some games banged up and also missed time. But, Mahomes is a cautionary tale for those betting huge money on Jackson, as Mahomes' rebound back showed in 2019 after a monster 2018 season in which he broke football.

That is why this preseason you should be targeting any of the other five spotted quarterbacks and feel very good if you can get any of them in your roster. I have identified both Kyler Murray and Josh Allen as two of the most under-the-radar yet potentially league-winning players of the season.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (ADP 62.3)

Remember, he was just a rookie in 2019 but he still finished the season with 285 PPR points (eighth), completed 349 passes (10th) for 3722 yards (15th) and did all of that in a newly implemented offense in which his weapons were... Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, both of them averaging under 13 PPG. Murray will throw the ball to those two, plus DeAndre Hopkins in 2020. Yes, the same Hopkins that was WR5 last year averaging almost 18 PPG.

The best thing about Murray, though? His legs. Murray toted the rock himself 93 times, only behind Jackson and Allen, and racked up 544 yards (second-most) to go with four touchdowns. I'm not saying he will improve on those numbers necessarily, but there is no reason to think he won't.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (ADP 47.1)

The other player I already mentioned, Allen, finds himself in a very similar position as Murray. He broke the 3000-yard mark throwing and also rushed the ball for more than 500 yards over the 2019 seasons, finishing with 3,599 all-purpose yards and 29 touchdowns combined. Most folks out there think 20 passing touchdowns are just not enough for a starting quarterback, but when looking at Allen's rushing upside he more than makes up for his arm: only five other QBs had more touchdowns combined on the season.

That is why we seek rushing quarterbacks. They might not be as good as some label them (two-in-one players), but they definitely have a broader toolset to work with and excel at fantasy football. Oh, and Stefon Diggs now plays for Buffalo.

The other three players are definitely known around most places already and grizzled veterans that are still undervalued to some extent (I don't think people will ever realize Dak Prescott's value...).

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (ADP 47.1)

Watson is a higher-end Murray/Allen... stuck on a worsening team. Without Hopkins around it is going to be hard for Watson to rack passing points up as he's done in the past. He will find it hard to replicate his counting stats (3852 passing yards, 26 touchdowns) but he's shown he has the ability to do so. Watson is also one of just four QBs (including the two above and Jackson) to finish 2019 with 79+ ruPPR. That is far from a joke. He rushed for 413 yards on just 82 attempts and scored seven touchdowns, the second-most last season tied with Lamar.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (ADP 52.3)

Pretty much the same goes for Russell Wilson only that the Seahawks have a much better team and offensive unit featuring, you know, viable players at WR, TE, and RB. Wilson was über-efficient last season, broke the 4000-yard mark (4110) on 341 completions (only 516 attempts, 12th-most), and was one of only four QBs with 30+ touchdowns (31) on the year while throwing just four (!) interceptions. Of those attempting at least 400 passes in 2019, only Mahomes, Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers finished with five or fewer interceptions.

Wilson wasn't that good on the ground, racking up 342 yards in 2019 although he has rushed for more yards in all but one of his other seven seasons with a second-career-best 586 yards not long ago in 2017 (his career-best came in 2014 when he rushed 118 times for 849 yards and six scores!).

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (ADP 67.8)

I don't know why Prescott is always flying under the radar. It looks like no one (not even Jerry Jones for a minute there) wants to acknowledge his abilities. Prescott has never finished a season out of the top-10 at the position, he was the fantasy QB2 in 2019, finished with the second-most passing yards (4902) and 30 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions, and even contributed 277 yards on the ground to go with three touchdowns rushing.

While Prescott falls more in the "pure passer" category of players, he has rushed for six touchdowns in his first three seasons and only dropped to three in 2019, and although his passing yardage was probably a little bit exaggerated and regresses in 2020 he has still averaged 3625 yards in his prior three campaigns and never finished a season with fewer than 260 PPR (he hasn't missed a game ever in his career).

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