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We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason, this time with a focus on quarterbacks whose stock is declining as we get closer to the season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team.
ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition.
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Quarterbacks - ADP Fallers
Carson Wentz - Indianapolis Colts
It all started to go down on the last morning of July. That day, it was reported that QB Carson Wentz, new Indianapolis Colts starter, had missed practice Friday due to some sort of foot injury. Nobody knew a thing. Until we started to know more. First of all, Indy signed QB Brett Hundley for some reason just a day after that report. Then, three days later, the bad rumors were confirmed: Wentz was going to miss 5-to-12 weeks after undergoing surgery. Ugh.
All of that explains Wentz's ADP cratering to a measly 200th overall spot. That depicts an undraftable, not very valuable fantasy player at all. Good news came on Aug. 11 as ESPN reported that Wentz should be on track to rehab in time for Week 1's game for the Colts. But we didn't trust Wentz before his injury, and we won't be doing so now after all of this. Sorry for talking on behalf of every single fantasy GM out there, but it is what it is, folks.
A one-legged Wentz would obviously be better for the Colts' aspirations than fielding either of Hundley or Jacob Eason, I guess, but that's pretty much it. Wentz is projected to a QB32 finish in 2021 (per PFF), which means his ROI is virtually non-existent even though he's a quarterback and that always helps. There are risky plays at the position for fantasy GMs to pull off (keep reading about the following two names below), but Wentz's risk/reward ratio looks more like a 1:0 proposition than anything else... Not falling for this one.
Jameis Winston - New Orleans Saints
Poor Winston's ADP has been absolutely murdered in the past month: from almost 150th overall (12th/13th rounder) to an absolutely cheap 225th overall (19th rounder... or just faded entirely). Nothing has happened in this offense regarding news impacting Winston nor QB-alt Taysom Hill. But the situation is so ridiculous that fantasy GMs finally realized that and are just not taking on such a risk as drafting any of these two.
The end of July marked the first time that we heard about the possibility of Hill entering the 2021 season as the (supposed) starter. All things considered, and although Hill's passing might be a little bit shaky and gimmicky, he brings the rushing upside that Winston lacks. BUT, Winston would be out there throwing bombs weekly and that is also valuable if you ask me.
The thing is, this is a headache not worth going through. Both Winston and Hill project into the middle of the QB3 realm of players, and even putting together their projections, that monstrous Taymeis Winshill would finish with something like a QB2-level fantasy tally. I don't think we will see 17 weeks of one-QB football in New Orleans, so that's already an upside loss. Absolutely fading these two this season, even on spot starts via WW addition.
Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts is the last of quarterbacks in PFF projections expected to break the 300-FP barrier. That would have him tied with Matthew Stafford for the 17th-best player at the position while manning the Eagles' pocket. And that is not nearly as bad as the situations and potential outcomes from other quarterbacks.
Even though no negative news has come out of Philly's camp so far entering the second half of August, the truth is that we don't really have much of a sample to assess Hurts' talent at this point. He appeared in 15 games last season--only heavily in five of those, though and he only started four of them. Yet, Hurts finished the year with an average of 7.7 FPPG, or around 21 if we only consider his five true games played. That run included a ridiculous near-38 FP night in Week 15, which call me crazy, but I just don't see Hurts putting up weekly.
Hurts looks like the ultimate boom/bust plate of the 2021 season. The controversy is served when it comes to drafting him inside the first round of drafts betting highly on his rushing upside. That's where Hurts' mojo seems to be truly at, and if all stars align, he could surely finish as a QB1 in his first season as a starter from the get-go. That being said, Hurts' ADP of 92 at the time of this writing is still too rich for my blood.
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