RADIO
If this is your first time hearing the term ‘Air Yards’, you’ve been missing out. A few years ago I stumbled across the term and I’ve been a big fan since day one. If you’re new to this and haven’t done much research, visit AirYards.com to check out some of this data. The best way to define air yards comes from the man himself who developed this statistic. “Air Yards are the total number of yards thrown toward a receiver on a play in which he is targeted, both complete and incomplete. If you add them up over a game or a season, you get a receiver’s total Air Yards.” -Josh Hermsmeyer @friscojosh
On top of air yards, he also provides yards after the catch and target share, along with several other statistics that are very beneficial to dynasty and fantasy football owners alike. For starters, air yards are a big reason why I was buying into Mike Evans after his disappointing 2015 season, as well as DeAndre Hopkins after his down year in 2016. Both of these players bounced back the next year in a major way, and air yards is one of the statistics that had me convinced and buying them wherever I could. Both of these guys had a ton of air yards during their down seasons, which tells me one thing. They’re getting the volume, targets, and opportunities, but weren’t able to capitalize on them.
Whether you want to blame it on the quarterback play or put some blame on the receivers, either way, the air yards were there. This isn’t to say that air yards is the ‘end all, be all’ statistic, but volume is something you want in your WRs, and air yards reflect that. As you can imagine, examining the leaders in this category can be a valuable exercise for fantasy football purposes, so today we're going to do just that.
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Air Yards Leaders
As you can see, the leaders in air yards aren’t completely hand in hand with the WR leaders, but there is definitely a correlation there. Some of the guys like Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas had lower air yards, but made up for it with their impressive YAC numbers. On the other hand, you have guys like Mike Evans and Marvin Jones, who had lower YAC numbers, but their air yards numbers were very high. All of these receivers have a different game, but they have one thing in common. They are getting the volume that you want out of your WRs, and the air yards reflect that. They’re getting the targets and looks from their quarterbacks, and volume is more often than not, a key to success in fantasy football.
Who to buy?
A few of the names on this list stand out to me as players I want to buy heading into 2018.
Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers
After developing a nice connection with Jimmy Garoppolo, Goodwin is someone that was getting a nice amount of volume, despite finishing as just the number 32 WR in PPR leagues. His target share at 17% is a little lower than I’d like to see, but as that connection between him and Jimmy G grows, and Kyle Shanahan’s offense continues to produce, he is someone I want to buy for a fairly low price right now.
Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers
Devin Funchess is an interesting name on this list, because more than likely if you own him, you’re not sure what to do with him. He is a tough name to sell right now, as you more than likely will get a low ball offer from someone who isn’t convinced that Funchess is legit. On the other hand, if you are looking to buy him, the owner is likely in spot where he isn’t sure how to gauge his value. I am not totally on board that Funchess is a legitimate stud WR, but he showed us he could realistically be the Panthers number one WR. 106 targets and an above average number in regards to target share and YAC, he is someone I’d want to make a move for if the price is right.
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
Let me start this one off by saying I have never been a strong advocator for Dez Bryant. The guy is extremely talented, but the days of him getting drafted in early rounds of your Dynasty league are over. If you are a regular Twitter or Reddit user, you likely have seen some absolutely ridiculous offers for Bryant lately. His value is at its all time low, and it’s hard to blame many owners for this drop in value. Having said that, Dynasty is a game I like to play like the stock market. Bryant was being targeted a lot in 2017, finishing the season with 124 targets and 1,502 air yards. His catch rate was a miserable 53.23%, which by the way, is just a hair worse than Marquise Goodwin’s which was 53.47%. Let’s not forget that Jimmy Garoppolo started in just five games. Is that more telling for Jimmy or Dak Prescott? You be the judge.
The bottom line with Dez is that his value is at an all time low. Whether you love the guy or not, you can get him very cheap and he still is a guy with multiple years of football left in him. Go out and see just how low you can buy him for. Seriously do it, I’m very curious to see just how low someone can buy him for. If you make a move for him, or need some insight with a trade, feel free to chat with me @aaron_schill on the Twitter machine.
The Other Guys
There are a few lower end receivers that didn’t make the list of the top 20 in air yards, but they still had a nice number of air yards this year. Jarvis Landry was tied for the 35th most air yards this year, and still finished the season as the number eight WR. This is where you need to understand that air yards, as stated previously, are not the ‘end all be all’. There are guys like Landry (1,023 air yards), Davante Adams (1,153 air yards), Tyreek Hill (1,227), and Nelson Agholor (986). Hill was the only one of these guys to surpass 1,000 yards.
The point with these players is that they all have their niche in fantasy football. We all know Landry is a target hog who puts up nice YAC. Agholor and Adams put up decent yardage with a large number of TDs (nine and 11 respectively). Then there is Hill, who ended as the number six WR in PPR and was 19th in targets for receivers with 105. His YAC and big play ability helped him finish so high despite the lower volume, which is part of the reason he still makes me hesitant to buy in.
The Bottom Line
If you are into researching the analytical side of fantasy football, there is one thing that is certain - there is no magical stat or number that we can look at to find out who to draft, who to buy, or who to sell. Air Yards are one of the stats that I’ve found very useful when analyzing a player and determining what to do moving forward. Regardless of what stat you have found useful yourself, we all have the players that we tend to like more than others, or players that we just find ourselves never owning. This is one more tool that you can throw into your fantasy toolkit and use it along with your personal opinions, to help make some decisions on what to do next with your Dynasty teams.
