Alex Verdugo (OF, BOS) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~180

CURRENT ADP: ~230 overall

ANALYSIS: Verdugo primarily spent the 2018 season in the minor leagues, so we’ll only look at his 2019 numbers. This is a terrific contact hitter who has the ability to contend for the BA title, as evidenced by his low 13.0 K% and high 91.2 Z-Contact%. Verdugo also was able to find his sweet spot at a high rate of 33.7%. His move to Fenway Park should pay major dividends for his run production. He’ll also likely be hitting in a better lineup slot since the Red Sox will depend on him more than the Dodgers. This means that Verdugo should set career-high rates (albeit in a short season) in HR and RBI, as he’ll be hitting in a bandbox with more run-producing opportunities. Verdugo was slated to start the season on the IL with an injured back, but the delayed Opening Day will allow him to start the season in the lineup.

Entering his age-24 season, Verdugo has a clear path to playing time, which is something that he struggled with as a Dodger, due to their substantial depth. In Boston, he will have a chance to become one of the mainstays in the Red Sox lineup. This is a player who is similar to Dahl — a high-contact hitter with some pop and untapped SB potential. He should also have something to prove after the Dodgers messed around with his playing time, ultimately trading him to a new team. This has all of the makings of a career season for Verdugo.

A projected pace of .303 BA, 70 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, and 9 SB would give Verdugo an Expected Draft Value of 142.2, which is 89 picks higher than his 231.87 NFBC ADP. Verdugo will likely put up more R and RBI than this projection, so there’s a decent chance that he returns even more value.