Alfredo Simon (SP, CIN) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add only in Very Deep Leagues

ANALYSIS: Simon has been quite impressive filling in for the injured Mat Latos and there's really no reason you shouldn't keep running him out there until the wheels fall off.  Wait...the wheels are going to fall off?  Yes, oh yes they will.  Simon is currently sporting a 1.30 ERA through 27.2 IP. That ERA is ridiculous, but unfortunately in this case it's just an indication of a huge amount of luck.  Simon is sporting a .185 BABIP and a 91% strand rate which are both significantly better than league average, and with his average skill set (1.89 K:BB ratio) those numbers will regress to the mean in a hard ugly way.  The one thing supporting's Simon's success is his fantastic 13.4% line drive rate, and 51.2% ground ball rate. These are repeatable skills, but Simon is simply not a good enough pitcher to maintain the elite line drive rate.    To sum it all up: there are a lot of indicators that you should be selling Simon now, asap, immediately if not sooner! Don't expect his success to continue for very long.