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It was first reported early Wednesday morning by Jeff Passan that the Dodgers and White Sox were planning on making a major trade. Much speculation was made over Twitter as to whether the headline piece going from LA to Chicago was Joc Pederson or Yasiel Puig. Seemingly minutes after it was announced that a trade between the two teams was going to take place, it was revealed that the Reds were a third party team and would be dealing Todd Frazier to the Chicago White Sox.
Since the conclusion of the Winter Meetings, there had been little doubt that the Reds were trying hard to deal their All-Star third baseman. The only question was who'd come away with the prize: the Indians, Royals, White Sox, or a mystery team. In the end, the Pale Hose won the Frazier sweepstakes.
Chicago White Sox
Received: Todd Frazier (3B)
Dealt: Micah Johnson (2B), Frankie Montas (SP), Trayce Thompson (OF)
The White Sox made a big splash by acquiring one of the best available right-handed bats on the market. Todd Frazier had a huge season in 2014 in which he owned a slash line of .273/.336/.459 with 29 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He followed that up with another phenomenal season and arguably a better fantasy season. He hit 35 home runs with 82 runs scored, 89 RBI, 13 stolen bases, and a slash line of .255/.309/.498.
Upon first glance, Frazier’s home/away splits appear concerning. He hit only .233/.285/.448 with 16 home runs on the road and .278/.333/.550 with 19 home runs despite 12 fewer plate appearances. Many would attribute his drastic splits to the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. What most people might not know is that though not quite as hitter friendly as GABP, US Cellular Field is still quite hitter friendly having ranked second in 2014 in terms of home run park factors according to Fangraphs.
The only concerning aspect of Frazier’s game is his tendency to have major second half slumps as last season he hit .284 with 25 home runs in the first half and a .220 average and 10 home runs in the second half. And though one slump may not necessarily be too concerning, he experienced a similar slump in 2014 when he hit .290 with 19 home runs in the first half of the season and only .247 with just 10 home runs in the second half.
Fantasy owners should not be concerned with Todd Frazier leaving Cincinnati as he should be able to maintain his usual high level of production. However if owners see a slump begin after the All-Star break occur, there is sufficient evidence to say that fantasy owners should cut bait with him and sell high before he causes too much damage in the second half of the season.
Cincinnati Reds
Received: Jose Peraza (2B), Brandon Dixon (2B), Scott Schebler (OF)
Dealt: Todd Frazier (3B)
With rumors swirling around that Brandon Phillips may be dealt (potentially to the team with his former manager), it makes sense that a deal with Jose Peraza joining the Reds indicates some confidence that Phillips can be dealt this offseason. Peraza is a second baseman who profiles very similar to Dee Gordon: he won’t strike out, won’t walk, and won’t home runs though he can hit for a high average and steal his fair share of bases. Though it is unlikely that Peraza will reach stats as high as Gordon’s, he still seems to be a solid beet to produce if given a chance. Fantasy owners should expect something around a .280 average with 30+ stolen bases.
The second best prospect in the deal is without question Scott Schebler. Schebler is an interesting case where he doesn’t do anything great, but does everything well. Though he struggled a little bit in 2015, his 2014 season in Double-A showed a lot of promise when he hit .280/.365/.556 with 28 home runs and 10 stolen bases. He completed a full season at Triple-A and saw his season end in the majors where he hit .250/.325/.500 with three home runs and two stolen bases. The Reds had a gap in left field that needed to be filled and it appears likely now that it will be Schebler who will take his place. And though he has a lot of potential to contribute in all five fantasy categories, I would recommend taking him off the waiver wire and stashing him. He has yet to prove that he can hit at the Major League level and fantasy owners are advised to view him as a low risk/medium reward type of player.
Brandon Dixon is the weakest part of the return for the Reds and likely won’t make it to the majors any time soon. Dixon made it to Double-A after a strong first half of the season at High-A. Dixon has shown the ability to hit double digit home run totals and double digit stolen base totals, but he also has shown a lack of plate discipline which has led to strikeout rates above 20% every season of his Minor League career. He is going to be 24-years-old soon and he has yet to play in a full season of Double-A. Does he have a lot of potential? Sure. But time is not on his side and he likely will not be relevant for fantasy purposes in years.
This trade gives 2016 fantasy value to three different players: Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza, and Scott Schebler. Walt Jocketty announced that Suarez will be the replacement for Frazier at third which gives him the opportunity to build off of a strong first full season. Peraza will start at second base assuming that Brandon Phillips is traded (if Phillips is not dealt, Peraza’s value will be severely limited. Schebler is probably going to start in left field unless the Reds make a bold (and highly questionable decision) to promote Jesse Winker right away. There are a few intriguing fantasy options that fantasy owners should pay attention to next season, but Suarez is the only clear player who warrants any serious draft consideration in fantasy leagues with fewer than 10 players.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Received: Micah Johnson (2B), Frankie Montas (SP), Trayce Thompson (OF)
Dealt: Jose Peraza (2B), Brandon Dixon (2B), Scott Schleber (OF)
The Dodgers made a handful of prospect upgrades after dealing those three players to the Reds. In terms of pure talent, Frankie Montas is really considered the cream of the crop. Montas dominated Double-A last season with a 2.97 ERA and a 3.04 FIP in 112.0 IP. And while those numbers are outstanding, it is concerning that he only mustered 112 innings in 23 starts. Many believe that though Montas is very talented, he is unlikely to be a starting pitcher full time in the majors. He is not very conservative with his pitches and has a high tendency to rack up high pitch counts early. If he remains a starter, he could prove to be very valuable for fantasy teams with his potential, but he needs to prove that he can start before any teams should feel comfortable taking a risk on him (even in dynasty leagues).
The Dodgers got rid of one second baseman and brought in another very similar prospect. The only difference really between Micah Johnson and Jose Peraza is that Johnson bats left-handed and has slightly more power and slightly less speed than Peraza. Though it may be tempting to view Johnson as a slightly more appealing fantasy value than Peraza because of his added power value, but they shouldn’t be thrown off. Though Johnson is currently given a clearer shot at big league playing time with not second baseman ahead of him in the depth chart (unlike Peraza who still sits behind Phillips), if Peraza is granted starting time he should provide more consistent value and slightly higher production in the long run.
Trayce Thompson has a lot of upside as a player, but is blocked in the outfield by several names like Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, and Alex Guerrero. Thompson did quite well in 2015 at Triple-A when he hit .260/.304/.441 with 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases. He is a slightly better version of Scott Schebler in that there is no one category where he will really dazzle, but if granted playing time he could provide decent production in all categories. Thompson could have value for fantasy teams if the Dodgers decide to deal some of the outfielders ahead of him on the depth chart, but as it stands right now he does not have a clear path to playing time.
Because the Dodgers neither received Major Leaguers nor dealt Major Leaguers, there is not much immediate fantasy value that can be fully utilized in 2016. Frankie Montas will likely start the season in the minors and continue development as a starting pitcher and Trayce Thompson is ranked low in their current depth chart. Micah Johnson could have some value if he wins the second base job outright, but there currently don’t appear to be any players worthy of drafting in leagues with fewer than 10 teams.
Conclusion
So who wins this deal? That could all depend on whether or not the White Sox are contending in 2016 or still continue to compete for the cellar in their division. Frazier is a major addition to a team that already has a bona fide ace in Chris Sale and a big bat in Jose Abreu. The only question is whether or not those three players make a team ready to compete in a division with the reigning World Series champ.
On the prospect side, the Dodgers probably got the better end of things. Even if Montas can't stick in the rotation, he still looks like a potentially dominant reliever and Johnson looks to be just a slight notch below Peraza. Thompson has a higher ceiling than Schebler, even though Schebler is more likely to start this season.
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