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Understanding the math behind fantasy football can be a huge advantage. Using past statistics, player profiles, and team tendencies can absolutely help fantasy managers identify +EV draft picks and roster construction strategies. However, many arguments for or against players use past stats in a misleading or unimportant context due to incredibly small samples. Some arguments also present predictions as facts, while the best fantasy analysts use ranges of outcomes and probabilities when discussing players. Jonathan Taylor is likelier than Travis Etienne to be the No. 1 fantasy RB this season, but if this season played out millions of times, there would be some seasons where Etienne finished as the RB1.
After a season is over, it's relatively easy to reverse engineer a narrative that pointed to a breakout scenario. For example, Cooper Kupp got a huge QB upgrade and was fully healthy. With the help of some logic, math, understanding historical breakouts, and football knowledge, I think crafting narratives before the season can actually be a useful exercise.
Last year in this article, I predicted big seasons for Cooper Kupp, Najee Harris, and Jaylen Waddle. Following my advice would have also prevented you from drafting DeAndre Hopkins and David Montgomery. I’ve had my share of misses over the years but I do believe that my close evaluation of college film gives me an edge when projecting players in the NFL. The purpose of this article is to nail some predictions and help you win your league.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off and win big in 2022. Exclusive access to our Premium articles, 15 lineup tools, new Team Sync platform, Lineup Optimizer, Premium DFS tools and cheat sheets, and much more! Sign Up Now!A lot of sharp fantasy analysts have finally caught up to the way I’ve always drafted. My philosophy is based on almost ignoring floor, shooting for upside with every pick, and prioritizing youth. I also look to exploit median season-long projections, which are borderline useless considering the injuries and chaos of every NFL season. Most fantasy players also don’t realize how many draft picks really don’t matter that much. There are only a few true impact picks each year. Hopefully, this article will help you find them.
1. Kyren Williams emerges as the most productive RB in the Rams backfield, scoring over 20 fantasy points in multiple fantasy playoff rounds.
The Rams obviously went into the 2022 NFL Draft with very little draft capital. They made it a priority to trade up for Kyren Williams in the fifth round, even after Williams tested poorly during the pre-draft process. Williams is small (5-9, 194) and slow (4.65 40) for an NFL RB, but had tremendous college production at Notre Dame and still showed enough to the Super Bowl Champions to compel them to trade up for him - even with two premium pick RBs already on the roster.
Since the above tweet, Williams suffered an injury and missed a portion of training camp. He wasn't on anyone else's radar. However, after returning to full health, Williams ran with the ones during joint practices and was held out of the Rams' final preseason game because Sean McVay envisions him "having a big role."
Williams is a skilled pass-catcher in a good offense, and the two RBs in front of him haven't been the most dependable, durable, or even particularly impressive. Waiver wire RBs explode down the stretch every single year and Williams is a great candidate this year. I actually think he'll have a week one role as well.
2. Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston finish as Top-12 QBs.
The top two picks in the 2015 NFL Draft, both Mariota and Winston have had relatively disappointing careers up to this point. However, they both find themselves with a second chance in a good situation.
Rushing production is the cheat code of fantasy football as it relates to QBs and Mariota will likely be among the league leaders in QB rushing attempts and yards. He also has two young stud targets in Drake London and Kyle Pitts, a dependable explosive receiving threat in Cordarrelle Patterson, and plays in a dome. Arthur Smith revived Ryan Tannehill's career and Tannehill had some awesome fantasy years in large part due to rushing production. I expect the same this year for Mariota.
Winston's ceiling narrative is similar in that he also plays in a dome and has potentially great weapons. One thing that many fantasy breakout players have had in common over the years is that they've actually shown elite level production at some point prior to their breakout. Winston was the QB5 in fantasy PPG in 2019. Some would argue that the Saints prefer to win by being run-heavy.
I believe their run-heavy tendencies were due to personnel in the past (Ingram was above average and Kamara was elite, plus Drew Brees' arm was declining). Not to mention, last year's receiving corps was probably the worst in the NFL. This year, Winston has Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry, in addition to Kamara out of the backfield. Winston can help your fantasy team eat Ws.
3. DeVonta Smith outscores A.J. Brown
Philadelphia's pass rate has been a hot topic for fantasy analysts all off-season. Many believe Jalen Hurts has QB1 in his range of outcomes if their pass rate increases. I see no way it doesn't increase after adding A.J. Brown and not addressing the RB position this offseason. The Eagles would be unwise to lean on Miles Sanders and Boston Scott when they can instead prioritize getting the ball to their four best skill players in the passing game (Brown, Smith, Goedert, Gainwell).
If their pass rate increases, DeVonta Smith has a clear path to smashing his seventh-round ADP. Smith won a freaking Heisman trophy and had an underrated strong rookie year. A.J. Brown is a terrific player, but Smith being a better pure WR is within his range of outcomes. And if Brown (or Goedert) were to miss time, Smith's targets would explode. We want to target good players. We want to target second-year WRs. Taking an inferior player like Darnell Mooney or Allen Lazard earlier than Smith seems way off.
4. Deebo Samuel finishes outside the top 20 WRs
Deebo is a tremendous player and I'm not sure any other draft analyst had him as their 16th overall player in 2019. But it's really tough to get behind a second-round price tag in fantasy drafts this year. In the pantheon of unsustainable TD rates, a WR scoring a rushing TD on 13.5% of carries over a 59-carry sample is at the top of the list.
Deebo was rumored to not enjoy his RB usage, which makes sense from a longevity standpoint. Even if he stays around 50 rushing attempts, I would expect his efficiency to go down from a yards-per-carry and obviously TD rate standpoint. Three rushing TDs would be a ceiling outcome even before we get to the QB change.
Trey Lance is now the starter, and his rushing ability should be huge at the goal line and in the red zone. That also caps Deebo's rushing TD upside. Lance is also completely unproven and raw - it's absolutely within his range of outcomes to simply not be that great of a passer, which would obviously hurt Deebo. Regression and unknown QB play make Deebo a risky bet at his second-round ADP.
5. Khalil Shakir outscores Gabriel Davis from Week 8 on
Gabe Davis has been the most controversial figure on fantasy football Twitter this off-season. I understand the hype - a young player who has shown flashes of explosive plays attached to the best fantasy QB in the league. However, I think understanding that fantasy football is a market might help people contextualize the situation.
Davis is reportedly enjoying an outstanding camp and should see career highs in route participation and targets this year. Zooming out and taking all emotion out of it - we have a third-year WR who in his second season (usually when WR breakouts happen) was unable to beat out a decrepit Emmanuel Sanders. He was a decent prospect with fourth-round draft capital. Even the most ardent Gabe supporters have to admit that he'd have to be an outlier to pay off a fourth-round ADP this year.
I would be fine with betting on an outlier in the fourth round if the main thesis behind the pick was that he was really, really good. In this case, Davis' ADP really boils down to what we remember him doing last and his situation. I think there are more talented players in that area of the draft with better profiles that aren't being drafted in large part due to the projected situation.
I don't think Davis will have a terrible year, but I like Khalil Shakir more. Shakir reminds me of a smaller Keenan Allen and has the shiftiness and route-running ability to play right away. Unsurprisingly, he's having a great camp. He'll likely need an injury or underperformance from one or two of the receivers above him on the depth chart, but he's one of my picks for a rookie receiver who smashes in the second half.
6. Alec Pierce emerges down the stretch and goes 8/162/2 against the Giants in Week 17
An AFC South rookie with the last name Pierce will be a league-winner this season. It won't be Dameon, but instead, the Colts' Week 1 WR2. Pierce boasts a 95th percentile speed score, 94th percentile burst score, 96th percentile catch radius, and 81st percentile breakout age via PlayerProfiler.
He has a clear path to targets early, and I think he'll find his groove with Matt Ryan at the end of the year. Pierce has been underrated by the market the entire offseason. Attached to a good offense with a chance to be second on the team in targets, there is a chance he's actually better than Michael Pittman Jr., who is being drafted as if he's a surefire No. 1, in part due to specific route efficiency metrics that have not proven to be predictive. George Pickens is all the rage, but give me Pierce with a better QB at a cheaper price.
7. Jahan Dotson finishes as a top-24 WR
It's been proven that rookie receivers can be outstanding bets to finish the season strong and smash their ADP during the second half of the year. Look no further than Amon-Ra St. Brown last year and Justin Jefferson in 2020. Identifying potential rookie WR second-half smashes isn't that difficult - you want a player who is good and has an opportunity to command targets.
I think Skyy Moore, George Pickens, Drake London, Treylon Burks, and Garrett Wilson all have worthwhile upside at their ADPs, but picking any of them to smash isn't really bold at all. Target rookies aggressively until the market realizes that the transition from college WR to NFL WR has never been smoother.
Jahan Dotson was drafted much higher in the real NFL Draft than most thought he would be, and because of his pre-draft standing as a borderline top-five WR in his class, fantasy drafters are not drafting him like he was the 16th overall pick in a WR-rich class.
Dotson has outstanding hands, blazing speed, and a clear path to being the No. 2 target in Week 1. These are the types of upside bets I like to make in the second half of fantasy drafts. Unsurprisingly, Dotson has reportedly had an outstanding training camp as well.
8. Sammy Watkins puts up 1132 yards and 10 touchdowns as Green Bay's WR1
Allen Lazard is the first Packer receiver off the board in fantasy drafts, but his seventh-round ADP is way too pricey for me. I expect Sammy Watkins to start on the outside and flourish with a change of scenery. How's this for a narrative? Aaron Rodgers is kind of weird, Sammy Watkins is very weird, and their weird connection will work on the field. Watkins hasn't had a 1000-yard season since 2015, but this is a bold predictions article.
Rodgers and the Packers would have to have such a steep decline in offensive output for at least one receiver to not have a big year. Watkins was once a productive player and hanging around for this long probably means he can still play.
Aside from last year's brief stint with the Ravens, Watkins' lack of production in KC can be explained by being cast aside for Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, which is nothing to be ashamed of. The year prior, he scored eight TDs for the Rams. The Packers simply don't have many options and Rodgers is too good to not produce.
9. Rhamondre Stevenson goes for 1488 total yards and 11 TDs
James White is retired, Ty Montgomery is hurt, and J.J. Taylor has been released. The Patriots are clearly content with going into the season with two featured RBs, and the hot topic in recent weeks has been if Rhamondre Stevenson will be the third down back. Bill Belichick said that both backs will have a three-down role and I actually believe Damien Harris will get more passing down snaps to start the year. He was solid in pass pro at Alabama.
The reason I prefer Stevenson to Harris is that I think Stevenson is just flat-out better. There is not a single statistical metric that proves Stevenson is actually better than Harris, yet the market has decided that Stevenson should be drafted first.
I've been coaching in the NCAA for eight years, and I agree with the market's perception that Stevenson is a more explosive runner right now. I also much prefer to target the younger back in a 1A/1B situation. Stevenson is a year younger with far less tread on his tires. If Harris were to miss time, Stevenson could average over 20 touches a game with the goal line work all to himself.
10. Doug Pederson does wonders for Jacksonville's offense...
Trevor Lawrence scores six rushing TDs, Christian Kirk puts up 1328 yards and nine TDs, Travis Etienne leads the NFL in 40+ yard plays, and the Jaguars win the AFC South.
Doug Pederson is an excellent coach. He helped develop the Eagles into a contender, winning the Super Bowl with a backup QB. His exit from Philadelphia had little to do with his coaching acumen, and more to do with odd circumstances including a power struggle and controversial decision to bench Jalen Hurts in a meaningless game.
I believe coaches can develop just like players and I don't think it's a coincidence that we see many head coaches find success in their second career stop (Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, and Andy Reid are the three obvious examples).
Trevor Lawrence has all the talent in the world and gets a reset with a fantastic offensive mind teaching him a proven scheme. The offensive line features some highly drafted players who have underachieved but could improve with a new coaching staff. They also added Brandon Scherff to solidify the interior.
As far as weapons go, their top three receivers have each been underrated at various points over the years. I also think Travis Etienne could be the single most explosive player in the entire NFL this year.
The first thing any competent coaching staff would do when working with Lawrence is to figure out a way to use his legs, especially in the red zone. Lawrence was a fantastic runner at Clemson, rushing for 18 TDs in three years. A Year Two fantasy breakout is well within his range of outcomes, and don't forget that Carson Wentz broke out with Pederson in his second season.
Christian Kirk averaged more yards per route run than Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen, and Mike Evans in 2021, and now gets a chance to be the clear WR1. If a mid-career breakout happens, it's with a huge jump in target share and an undervalued QB and offense. I like his chances.
As for Etienne, the formula is simple. He's explosive and catches passes. The only negative with James Robinson being healthy is that it could impact Etienne's goal-line share. The Jaguars were always going to split two-down work with another RB, and you could argue that Robinson being available helps the whole offense. I think the Jags take the AFC South and I don't hate taking a shot on them to win the Super Bowl at extremely long odds.
11. Rex Burkhead outscores Dameon Pierce
People think Rex Burkhead is bad, and as a runner, he may be below average. Dameon Pierce is younger, bigger, and more explosive. However, targets are worth more than carries in fantasy football and Rex Burkhead was the ninth-best receiving back in the NFL last year, according to PFF grade.
The Texans likely won't be contending for the Super Bowl this year, so it wouldn't make sense to run their rookie back into the ground in his first season. I expect to see Rex Burkhead get a lot of the high-value touches, as it is clear he's earned the trust of the Texans coaching staff following their release of Marlon Mack. Burkhead is free in drafts and depending on your roster construction, makes sense as a plug-and-play RB2 on a zero-RB team. I particularly like the idea of pairing him with Kenneth Walker.
12. Jerry Jeudy easily outscores Courtland Sutton and finishes with 92 catches, 1398 yards, and nine TDs as Russell Wilson's clear WR1
Jerry Jeudy was an outstanding collegiate player who earned first-round draft capital and had a solid rookie season, displaying explosiveness and terrific route-running en route to 856 yards on just 52 catches, good for 16.5 yards per catch. Last year, he suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 1 and struggled basically all season. Throughout both his rookie and sophomore campaigns, Jeudy had to deal with atrocious QB play.
With Russell Wilson now a Bronco, Jeudy will have his first real NFL QB, and one that has historically always made his teammates better. Healthy with a great QB in a potentially great offense, Jeudy is an outstanding bet in the middle rounds.
Anyone who points to his drops as some kind of huge negative doesn't understand that typically the league leaders in drops are some of the best WRs in the league - they just get thrown to a lot. Coming off a high ankle sprain with bad QBs, Jeudy still had the same average separation per route (3.6) as Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill last season.
The Broncos also lost Tim Patrick for the season last month. Patrick would have commanded a lot of targets as a dependable possession receiver. Either Courtland Sutton or Jeudy will earn a huge target share and perform as a borderline fantasy WR1. I'll bet on the younger more explosive player with the better draft capital.
13. Jaylen Waddle catches 129 passes for 1548 yards and 11 TDs, finishing as the overall WR2
Waddle's rookie season is truly underrated by fantasy drafters. He broke the record for most receptions by a rookie WR with 104 even while coming off a significant injury in his final season at Alabama. Waddle's aDOT last year was just 7.16, but I fully expect that number to go up.
An elite prospect with a record-breaking rookie season would usually be going in the first or second round in fantasy drafts. Instead, the market has priced Waddle in the fourth round due to circumstances that have zero to do with his actual talent.
Tua Tagovailoa was once considered a slam dunk first overall pick. His first two years in the league have been a bit underwhelming, but in a new scheme with a bright young head coach, drastic improvement is well within his range of outcomes.
The Dolphins also added two stud offensive linemen and Tyreek Hill. Hill is a huge reason why Waddle's price is so low, as many drafters believe Tua can't support two top-12 WRs. My pro-Waddle stance asserts two possibilities - one, that Waddle is much better than people realize, and taking it a step further - two, that Waddle is actually better than Hill.
Waddle was NOT a low aDOT possession receiver at Alabama, and I think his role last year was a function of Tua's conservative tendencies and Waddle coming off an injury. Waddle at his best is an explosive playmaker at all levels of the field with the ability to get behind the defense as well as gain chunks of yards after the catch. He has missed some practice time over the past few weeks, but if he's healthy to start the season, draft him with confidence and enjoy getting one of the best WRs in the league in the fourth round.
14. Ja'Marr Chase finishes as overall WR1, outscoring Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson
I will be aggressively targeting sophomores this year, as many of them are priced as if no player growth will occur. Typically, players get better after their rookie year, but fantasy analysts this year are pointing out circumstantial factors that have nothing to do with player talent in regards to Najee Harris, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Ja'Marr Chase.
Chase's ridiculous efficiency last season is likely unsustainable (but he was one of the best WR prospects ever...), but any decline in efficiency should be offset by an obvious increase in target share. From a talent standpoint, Chase has a case for the 1.01 in PPR leagues, but no one is making that argument because the Bengals have two other awesome WRs and run the ball a lot.
The path to Chase finishing as WR1 overall is obvious - the Bengals pass more in Joe Burrow's second year off injury and either Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd misses some time. At the end of the day, I like to bet on generational talents in good offenses with good QBs. For the second straight season, I believe the market is underrating Chase's upside. He'll be the 1.01 in 2023 fantasy drafts.
15. You will skim this article and read the titles, looking to confirm the biases you already have for your own players
1-for-1. Off to a great start! Thanks for reading and good luck this season.
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