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Upon being drafted in the third round of the 2020 draft, Washington immediately stated Antonio Gibson would be a running back for the team. After the release of Derrius Guice, this is not only the most likely scenario, it's an opportunity for Gibson to shine.
Gibson was a wide receiver turned running back during his time at Memphis. At 220 pounds with sub 4.4 speed, he is a threat no matter where he plays on the field. It now appears he will be on the field a lot.
First a trendy sleeper, the news surrounding Guice's departure has thrust Gibson into the fantasy mainstream. Will he return the type of value fantasy managers expect in 2020?
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Washington Football - A Perfect Fit
Trent Williams is officially gone from the team and the team didn't draft an offensive lineman until the fourth round, so the line is going to struggle. This plays perfectly into Gibson's strengths. With Haskins not known for his mobility, it will lead to many dump-offs and short routes. Antonio Gibson is the perfect fit in this mold. Much like former third-round draft pick David Johnson fit perfectly in Arizona during his rookie season, Gibson could be in a perfect situation, even if it isn't a very good offense.
Not only is the offensive line weak, the run game a bit of a crapshoot with injury concerns and the receiving group shallow, but the team is also terrible. This will mean despite Bill Callahan saying "you run to win," if you are losing you need to throw. This team will be losing a lot. Even in a weak division like the NFC East. This means the pass-catching back in Gibson, with his receivers’ hands will be a valuable commodity.
With Chris Thompson now in Jacksonville, Antonio Gibson will find himself as the third-down back. This will mean a lot of targets to go along with what could be a 40% to 50% share of the rushes. Adrian Peterson is still there, and Bryce Love is hoping to stay healthy in 2020. Even if he does return, Gibson is already healthy and will provide higher upside to the team. This makes him the running back to roster in Washington.
While the other teams in the division have quarterbacks, or at least the promise of one, Washington and Dwayne Haskins have a lot to work on. While they try to work things out, Antonio Gibson will become the best friend of the QB. With Jordan Reed out the door, the speedy Gibson will be the one to garner the dump-offs, keeping Haskins or Alex Smith from being destroyed by opposing pass rushes. Not only will the offensive line have to worry about the likes of Fletcher Cox and DeMarcus Lawrence in the division, with the NFC East taking on the NFC West this season, they will also need to hold up against the likes of Nick Bosa and Arron Donald. Good Luck.
The offensive upside in Washington is limited. Despite this, the upside of Antonio Gibson is far superior. In some cases, the upside of a player outweighs the upside of his surrounding casts. This is one of those times. This is not an offense you want to spend a lot of draft capital on to get a piece. With Terry McLaurin going in the fifth round of most drafts, this could be a hindrance. For those of you, like myself, who are cautious to believe in Washington, wait.
Grab Antonio Gibson late in your draft if possible. He has already jumped up to a ninth-round ADP, according to FantasyFootballCalculator. This is an overreaction to recent news, but that ADP should drop a bit as we get closer to the actual season. Even as a third RB, he could wind up being a sleeper that pays off as a league winner and finish as an RB2 based on his pass-catching work alone.
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