RADIO
The fantasy football community has a short memory. In general, fantasy players overvalue what happened last year. Many articles review and analyze the relatively tiny 16-game sample that is last season and attempt to use their findings to help them project the upcoming year. Do I think we should be going back even further in time to grab a larger sample? Not necessarily, as data from two or three years ago is probably even less relevant.
NFL seasons are small sample sizes filled with variance, and things change week to week, let alone year to year. So is the answer to watch film and project ahead, picking which statistics are stickiest year-over-year to then project target shares, efficiency, and touchdown rates? That's what I do, and I'm not sure that's the optimal strategy.
With the reality that only a few players will truly be difference-makers each year, and that roster construction and in-season management are so important, one could argue that projecting target shares and season-long statistics of a variance-filled NFL season is a fool's errand. And that the best draft prep is to simply try to find the silver bullets, league-winners, and breakouts and target those guys in drafts. Ignoring math in season-long leagues is probably not wise, but overvaluing projections that are going to be so far from reality isn't smart either. In this article, we will use some historical data to figure out if rookie RBs are undervalued.
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Methodology
I watch a lot of film and I think that gives me a slight edge. Knowing players since their college days gives me more complete information than my opponents. But checking myself, I do seem to have a rookie bias. I have capitalized on this with many late-season breakouts. Knowing we aren't that good at projecting and the landscape of a fantasy football draft will be littered with busts, I tend to target rookies due to the unknown upside.
Why bother drafting a dusty veteran when I'm just a couple of months removed from enjoying the exciting college film of a rookie? I have always believed this, and this recent article asserts that rookie WRs have been better bets than veterans in best-ball leagues. But, what about RBs?
The fantasy football community has a short memory. See, I wrote that already and you forgot it. The spark for this study of rookie RB performance was my belief in Najee Harris as a football player. I value talent more than anything, and I think he's really good.
Simply put, I believe that Clyde Edwards-Helaire's underwhelming rookie performance has impacted Najee Harris' ADP to the point where he's underpriced for his talent and role. Digging into the numbers has re-affirmed my interest in Harris.
There have been seven rookie RBs with an ADP in the first two rounds since 2012.
- Just one (CEH) did not return value on his ADP.
- Six of seven were top-10 RBs.
- Five of seven were top-seven RBs.
Someone much smarter than I could probably compare this data to all other RBs with ADPs in the first two rounds. Having played fantasy for so long, I'm fairly certain non-rookie RBs bust at a much higher rate in the first two rounds than rookies have since 2012.
So if/when someone cites CEH's disappointing rookie year as a reason to fade Najee Harris, remind them that literally every other rookie RB with an ADP in the first two rounds since 2012 finished in the top-10, with three of them finishing in the top TWO!
Did I mention that we have short memories?
Zooming out a bit to add in the rookie RBs with ADPs in the top three rounds, we add some who did not return value.
- Of the 14 rookie RBs with an ADP in the first three rounds since 2012, five did not return value on ADP.
- Just two of 14 did not return RB2 value. (One of those was Dalvin Cook, who suffered a season-ending injury).
- Eight of 14 finished as RB1s.
Simply put, these guys don't look like horrible bets, and the small sample is skewed by Cook, who we can probably assume would have been pretty darn good as a rookie.
The above selection shows us how rookie RBs have fared in the "RB Dead Zone" (Rounds 3-6).
Rookie RBs drafted in the "RB Dead Zone" (rounds 3-6):
- 22 since 2012.
- 10 of 22 returned value on ADP.
- Four of 22 were RB1s.
- 12 of 22 were RB2s or better.
- I included Antonio Gibson due to a late draft-season ADP jump.
It's important to note that the RB Dead Zone was derived from best ball win rates, not returning value on ADP. But, can this zone be considered dead for rookies when more than 50% of them finish as RB2s? I genuinely don't know, but rostering Todd Gurley was pretty fun in 2015.
The chart continues, but it's so big and the findings aren't all that interesting.
Rookie RBs drafted in Round 7 or later:
- 48 since 2012.
- Six RB1 seasons (Jeremy Hill, David Johnson, James Robinson, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Jordan Howard).
- Just two RB2 seasons (Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson).
So basically there's a 66.6% chance a rookie RB drafted late will be an RB1 in any given year. I know you really love Younghoe Koo, but I think I'd rather try to luck into the next James Robinson with my last few picks.
Conclusion
This wasn't a statistical deep dive and someone smarter than I might have rookie RB best ball win rate data already figured out. I more just wanted to stroll down memory lane and review what exactly rookie RBs have done over the years. After doing this work, I will not shy away from my rookie-heavy drafting tendencies in re-draft leagues.
Looking forward, the Steelers' offensive line could be a disaster. That can't be good for Najee Harris. But citing CEH's disappointing rookie season as a reason to fade Harris is just foolish recency bias. In future articles, I will explain which specific rookies I'll be targeting in fantasy leagues this year.
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