RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~200 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~227
Even though getting 10+ points per game from your defense is beneficial, we still don't want to reach and draft a D/ST early in our fantasy drafts. While some defenses like the Ravens, Steelers, and Bears have proven to be season-long holds in years past, you're far more likely to stream defenses each week. With that in mind, I'm going to focus on my D/ST's on teams with strong defensive talent as well as their early-season schedules.
I've created a D/ST Rankings metric that weighs together all of the stats I've come to believe are most important for determining if a defense will be a strong fantasy unit: pressure rate, sacks, quarterback hurries, drives ending in a turnover, drives ending in an offensive score, and yards allowed per play.
ANALYSIS:
When you add J.J. Watt, you become a better defense. OK, I know it's not that simple, but it's also kind of that simple. Yes, the Cardinals lost Patrick Peterson, but bringing in Malcolm Butler to take his place is not exactly much of a drop-off at this stage in their careers. Consider also that the Cardinals finished 10th in FantasyPros rankings last season and seventh based on my formula, and I think you're getting a relatively strong unit for almost no draft capital.
The Cardinals' scheme is conducive to sacks, as they finished fifth in the NFL with 48 last year, again, BEFORE adding Watt to pair with Chandler Jones, who only was able to play five games for the Cardinals in 2020. That's a pretty ferocious set of defensive ends; yet, the Cardinals have talent in the middle of the field too with their last two first-round picks - Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons. Plus, Budda Baker roams in the secondary, which gives the Cardinals talent at all levels.
This offense will likely force teams to pass a lot to keep up and while the Cardinals may give up a fair number of points during the season, I expect them to rack up sacks and provide enough consistent production to push to be a top-1o defensive unit by the end of the season.
EARLY SCHEDULE: @Titans, vs. Vikings, @Jaguars, @Rams
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