RADIO
In an effort to write these columns before the start of the season, I ask a lot of people their thoughts on everyone under the sun in fantasy. None of these interactions are as rewarding when I ask my wife her thoughts on her favorite team, the Green Bay Packers. They aren't, uh, thorough.
Me: "Hey honey, what do you think about the Packers this season?"
Jen: "Davante. Aaron. Maybe Aaron."
Me: "Oh? Anyone else?"
Jen: "Uhh... Aaron Jones"
Me: "Anyone else?"
Jen: "Not their defense. Not their defense"
Me: "Can I quote you on all this"
Jen: "No"
Me: "I quoted you last year"
Jen: "What?"
Me: "We literally did this exact same bit for last year's column. I quoted you on the 2018 version, and David Njoku"
Jen: *starts giggling about her love of David Njoku*
*reads her the 2018 transcript*
Jen: I really don't like being in these columns....
Chicago Bears
We all gave up on ________, and it's not entirely clear why.
Understand that when it comes to the Chicago Bears, the most important thing to keep in mind is value. Last year, I posted that the team needed a real solution at receiver, outside of new signing Allen Robinson. In year two with the team, Allen Robinson is still a good fantasy option, albeit one that is going in the seventh round. I've mentioned in other columns that I'm less interested in David Montgomery than the rest of the fantasy community at his price point, and I'm not entirely sure why anyone is drafting Mike Davis as anything other than a backup.
It leaves Taylor Gabriel, who has been considered the following, in order in 2018: very last second sleeper, late draft value, FLEX option, and then after a string of games where he saw less than 5 catches per game and no touchdowns after September ended, he's back down to very deep sleeper. It's fine, it's why you're reading this column, but the team is obviously using kid gloves when it comes to keeping Gabriel healthy and active in 2019. Gabriel has been sitting in most preseason games, without any public-facing knowledge of injury and there's a pretty easy argument to be made that he's likely to see more targets and more red-zone work this season.
Gabriel doesn't have the obvious upsides of Montgomery or Robinson, and I'm even more eager to see if Trey Burton improves rather than take Gabriel again. But he's a classic end of draft value in much deeper leagues, resetting the 2018 clock all over again.
Where To Take Him: End of the Draft
Confidence: Low
Timeline: You should know Gabriel's role by October
Detroit Lions
_________ is sliding and shouldn't be.
There are legitimate reasons for nearly everyone on this list to be sliding, ever so slightly. Matthew Stafford is a good choice to wait on a QB with, but other QBs, especially guys like Derek Carr, are moving ever so slightly up, meaning Stafford is falling. Marvin Jones was dealing with lingering injury, returning a week ago. And Jesse James is about to be drafted out of his position, making him basically free.
So, Golladay. It's worth noting that Golladay's fall is slight, but his average is dipping from the end of the fourth to the beginning of the fifth. Golladay is not only healthy, but the lack of competition around him means he's probable to stay on pace as the 16th most targeted wide receiver in 2018.
There's not a ton to write here when it comes to Golladay, and his slide is slight. Yet he is the definition of the drum I've been beating in these articles; when there is value, there should also be action. If you find Golladay sliding into your fifth round, it's an opportunity you can't pass up.
Where To Take Him: End of the 4th Round/Beginning of the 5th
Confidence: High
Green Bay Packers
_________ is considered a "faller" and it's time to catch him.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- Aaron Jones
- Geronimo Allison
- Jake Kumerow
This is going to be a very strange year of Packers football. The first year in a very long time where Mike McCarthy isn't manning the helm, it means that we're likely to see a brand of football that is, quite frankly, smarter and more effective. Yet this change from coach to coach isn't going to be as dramatic fantasy-wise as some might hope, as Bleacher Report's article suggested (it's worth noting that Rodgers disavowed this reporting without correcting the record in any way) that Aaron Rodgers simply called his own plays and ignored McCarthy's. So if Aaron Rodgers liked a guy, he threw to him. If he didn't, he didn't.
That's how we ultimately got Davante Adams, from a guy with a perpetual catching problem to one of the top receivers in the NFL. But it's naive to think that a functional Packers offense couldn't support a second WR in fantasy. Valdes-Scantling is indeed falling, but he's not the one I'm picking up.
Geronimo Allison is behind his WR counterpart in the team's current depth chart, but the reality is that Allison saw more games with 6+ receptions in 2018 than Valdes-Scantling. I'll repeat; Allison caught the ball six times in two games, while Valdes-Scantling caught the ball six times in one. Geronimo Allison played five games. Valdes-Scantling played the whole season.
Valdes-Scantling, in those games where Allison was playing, was targeted all of 10 total times. I'm pretty sure Aaron Rodgers has a preference.
Where To Take Him: End of the 9th Round
Confidence: High
Timeline: You'll know immediately
Minnesota Vikings
The only rookie who is falling in drafts over time instead of rising is __________
Try to guess before I write it. Too late, it's Alexander Mattison. It's not like anything has changed in Minnesota; Dalvin Cook didn't suddenly rebound from injury, or the team didn't outright say "We don't like him." Mattison has dropped a full round in the last month, even though he's grinding in the preseason and breaking off good-but-not-great runs.
He's probably still overvalued in your dynasty leagues, but in keeper leagues, he's going well after the range of rookies that is rapidly rising: Darwin Thompson, Devin Singletary, and David Montgomery. In fact, you're choosing between Mattison and someone like Justice Hill. He is a lottery ticket, one that would see a significant work advantage if Dalvin Cook ever went down again as he has before.
Where To Take Him: End of the Draft
Confidence: Medium
Timeline: He'll be on your bench all season, as a handcuff
