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Welcome to our fantasy football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, a series on RotoBaller where our writers look at three key players on each NFL team. Today, we're talking about the Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons will look a lot different this season, as they'll open the season with a new starting quarterback for the first time since 2008 with the departure of Matt Ryan. Since he was drafted, Ryan had started all but three games for Atlanta. How will things change with a new quarterback under center?
Below, you'll find a fantasy football breakout candidate, a fantasy football bust candidate, and a safe fantasy football pick for the Falcons based on early ADP for fantasy football drafts in 2022.
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Fantasy Football Breakout: Drake London
Rookie wide receivers don't break out that often, but rookie wide receivers don't always find themselves in the position that London is in, which is entering his rookie season as the best wide receiver on the roster.
Even though the Falcons will likely be near the bottom of the league in pass attempts with Marcus Mariota under center, the attempts they do make will have to go somewhere. Kyle Pitts, who we'll talk more about farther down in this article, will get a lot of them, and Cordarrelle Patterson might too, but the wide receiver depth chart itself looks concerningly shallow.
The projected starting receivers when the team is in 11 personnel are London, plus Bryan Edwards and Olamide Zaccheaus. There is also a long list of backup receivers who make you think "oh, I remember that guy's name," including Auden Tate, Geronimo Allison, KhaDarel Hodge, and Damiere Byrd.
London has good size and showed a great knack for route running at USC. He's not the fastest guy in the world, but he's a strong runner with the ball in his hands. He's the kind of receiver who should be able to adjust quickly to the NFL. Because the Falcons don't have many other options, they'll almost have to throw the ball to London a whole bunch of times.
London is currently being drafted as a WR4, around guys like Robert Woods, Chase Claypool, and Russell Gage, though the latter should change after the Julio Jones signing in Tampa. I see London as someone with a whole lot more upside than those guys. Drafting him at or around his ADP is a smart move for fantasy managers.
Fantasy Football Bust: Cordarrelle Patterson
Patterson's transformation into a running back has been a great storyline, but it's also prompted some concerns about how sustainable it is.
Cordarrelle Patterson is 31 years old. In wide receiver years, that's fine. In running back years, that's not fine. That's where some of the conundra lie. Patterson never had over 100 carries in a season until last year and really only transitioned into a running back in 2020 with the Bears. He should have the body of a 31-year-old receiver, with a little additional wear-and-tear from last year, right?
Maybe! But the Falcons did add some competition this year, signing Damien Williams and drafting Tyler Allgeier, so the idea that they'll just continue this Patterson at RB experiment isn't set in stone. Maybe he takes on a more James White-esque role, where he's still taking snaps in the backfield but he's essentially a receiver who is lined up behind the quarterback.
There's also been a lot of good chatter coming out of training camp about Allgeier, including speculation he could wind up starting:
https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1551677419785822208?s=20&t=n3kY3J5oTSui3ZR9MPS5Mw
It would make sense. Patterson averaged 4.0 yards per carry last year, but his upside as a runner is limited by the fact that...well, he isn't a running back. I'm all for positional versatility, but there's something to be said about someone who has experience playing the position, which Williams and Allgeier both have.
Patterson will have a passing-down role and should get the first crack at the starting job, but it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see him lose that role to Allgeier. Patterson is being drafted like an RB3, which is fine, but it feels like he's being drafted around his ceiling right now. There are other running backs being drafted around him like Rashaad Penny and Tony Pollard who have way more upside.
Fantasy Football Lock: Kyle Pitts
Seeing the Matt Ryan-less Falcons offense is going to be weird, but one thing's certain: Kyle Pitts will be featured.
As a rookie, Pitts was targeted 110 times, catching 68 passes for 1,026 yards, but he only found the end zone once. Hayden Hurst had more touchdown receptions than Pitts. That's not happening again. (And I'm not just saying that because Hayden Hurst is a Bengal now.)
Kyle Pitts is the best weapon that the Atlanta Falcons have. There's a reason why he was a generational prospect coming into the league: he's just a huge mismatch. He can play on the line. He can play in the slot. He can play out wide. He's too big for defensive backs and too explosive for linebackers. Pitts is going to be one of the rare tight ends who is his quarterback's go-to weapon.
And the certainty of drafting Pitts in fantasy is even more amplified by his position. Tight end is one of those positions that dries up fast. If you don't get one of the top eight tight ends, you're going to be scouring the waiver wire week after week. You can't just draft Hunter Henry or Mike Gesicki and say "okay, I'm set at this position." You can draft Pitts and say that. (His Week 14 bye week sucks, though.)
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