RADIO
One of the biggest tight end prizes on the free-agent market now has a new home. Former Falcons TE Austin Hooper is now a member of the Cleveland Browns after signing a four-year, 44 million dollar deal that features 23 million guaranteed, per ESPN.
No, it’s not Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Hunter Henry, but it’s the Stanford product who is now the league’s most paid tight end. This means Baker Mayfield has a shiny new weapon for 2020 as he looks to steer the Browns away from any more mishaps.
After a highly-productive season that saw him get off to a fantasy TE1 start in 2019 for the Falcons, the 25-year-old will be an instant contributor in Cleveland. Let’s evaluate how his fantasy value is impacted by this move.
Is He That Good?
You probably saw the former Falcon’s deal and wondered how he deserves to be the highest-paid tight end. Hooper slowly started his ascent into stardom immediately in 2016 when he got drafted by Atlanta, steadily building his role until he had a breakout season in 2019. The big-bodied TE recorded career-highs in targets (97), yards (787), receptions (75), touchdowns (six), receptions per game (5.8), and yards per game (60.5).
Hooper is also very reliable, averaging a catch rate of 77.3 percent in his career and in the 2019 season, which was seventh-highest among receivers, according to Next Gen Stats. He was the third-leading receiver on the team in 2019, averaging 10.5 yards per reception and chewing up 97 of 121 TE targets on the team. This is a ridiculous 80 percent. The Stanford product had 3.5 yards of separation in 2019, seventh-highest among receivers per Next Gen Stats. Hooper didn't have the brand name of players like Kittle, but that was largely due to the fact he was overshadowed by Julio Jones.
What About Njoku and the other TEs?
Hooper’s signing was a major move by Cleveland, but it’s warranted considering the current state of the team’s TE unit. There were five tight ends on the team in 2019 who had a grand total of 497 yards receiving on the season. The unit had a total of 69 targets and 41 receptions, with Demetrius Harris (now in Chicago) having the most targets (27)/receptions (15), and Ricky Seals-Jones having the most receiving yards at 229.
Hooper alone nearly had 300 more receiving yards than the entire unit. He also had roughly 30 more targets and receptions than this “unit.” Former 2017 first-round pick David Njoku was supposed to be the Browns tight end of the future, but the 23-year-old could only play four games in 2019 because of a wrist injury sustained very early in the season. In other words, the Browns lacked a fantasy-worthy TE in 2019 as evidence of the stats and Njoku’s injury. At this point, it seems none of those guys are trusted by the Browns to be a capable TE1, thus leading to the signing of Hooper in hopes of him making an immediate impact.
What About the Rest of the Browns?
As stated previously, Baker Mayfield didn't have much help or efficiency at TE last season, a small percentage of the reason why the team struggled. Nevertheless, the young QB should see an uptick in fantasy value after Hooper's signing, although to what extent remains unknown considering chemistry issues plagued the team in 2019 even though Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry were on the team. Hooper will likely chew up a good chunk of the target share on the team, but that won't impact any fantasy-relevant players aside from Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. because they remain the only fantasy-caliber players on the receiving core.
So, could Hooper cut into the top two WRs' production? It's possible, as Landry had 1,174 receiving yards, 83 receptions, and 138 targets while Beckham had 1,035 yards, 74 receptions, and 133 targets in 2019. Landry was a top-10 receiver in yards and targets too. (Next Gen Stats). Because Hooper has a chance to sustain an integral role in this offense and will provide a TE presence that was missing in 2019, expect both Landry and Beckham's fantasy value to take a bit of a hit.
Though both receivers remain fantasy-relevant, the 2019 numbers may not be reasonable to expect considering there is added competition for catches and targets. Of course, the Browns are the Browns, so anything is possible, whether it's chemistry issues all over again or everything clicking leading to an explosive offense. Let's hope the latter happens in 2020.
Fantasy Outlook
The short answer is an astounding YES! In fact, he's more than good, he's an excellent TE option to draft in all types of fantasy leagues. The Browns wouldn’t have signed Hooper to a very rich deal if they already had a TE they trusted to shoulder a massive load. Still only 25, Hooper and Mayfield have a chance to make a run in Cleveland, and there is no other way to look at it than him being a TE1.
Though youngster David Njoku remains on the team, he will likely be pushed to the TE2 role on the team or, more likely, put on the trading block. This also puts the Browns in a position where they can pick somebody from other than an offensive skill position like RB, WR, and TE in the draft next month because they now have elite talent in all those groups.
The Browns’ TEs underwhelmed in 2019, and Hooper is an elite option on this team alongside Odell Beckham Jr. The former Falcon will see many targets in Ohio, likely equivalent to his 2019 Falcons season. He should be viewed as a top-five fantasy TE or top-10 at the very worst. Hooper is worth putting into the same echelon as Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz because he is entering his prime and gave fantasy owners a glimpse of his incredible potential last season.
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