RADIO
Always a bridesmaid, the Dallas Mavericks once again whiffed on attracting any big names to Dallas, not finding themselves in the conversation for Kevin Durant, while falling short of more realistic targets like Hassan Whiteside, Al Horford, and Dwight Howard. They couldn't even keep their main in-house free agent, as Chandler Parsons bolted for the Memphis Grizzlies. Despite this, they still have coach Rick Carlisle, they still have living legend Dirk Nowitzki, and they ended up putting together a sneaky offseason that made the team a lot younger, while keeping them in the conversation for a playoff spot in the West. Let's take a look at how their roster might shake out for fantasy purposes.
Guards, Guards, and More Guards: Sleepers Galore
Coach Carlisle ran a lot of three guard lineups last year, with some trio of Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, Wesley Matthews, J.J. Barea, and Devin Harris often sharing the floor, with each of them finding some fantasy relevance at points when they were one of the top three healthy guards in a game. Key to Dallas's most successful small ball lineups were Matthews, a tough-as-nails defender who can hang with bigger wings, and Parsons, a big wing capable of spacing the floor as a four. This year, Matthews is still here and the Mavericks have acquired Harrison Barnes to fill the role that Parsons did in the rotation. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have not gone out of their way to bring a new power forward on board who will demand a huge amount of minutes. All indications are they'll keep playing a ton of three guard lineups. That's good news for the continued fantasy relevance of guards beyond the starting 1-2 in the Mavs rotation.
As for those starting guys, they will remain the aforementioned Williams and Matthews. Williams, with all his injury problems, is a borderline fantasy producer who's not worth the headaches in standard fantasy leagues. Matthews, one year removed from his Achilles injury will be a key player, though. I think he has a decent chance to rebound his shooting form now that he's had a healthy offseason, bringing his FG% back to the 43-44% range after last year's dreadful .389 showing. A rebound there with added scoring will bump Matthews back up from the bottom of the top 100 rankings into the top 75 range at the least, with reasonable upside to be a top 50 player.
Williams and Matthews will trot out there in conventional lineups with Barnes as a traditional small forward, Dirk Nowitzki at power forward, and new starting center Andrew Bogut. Like he did in Golden State, though, the aging and injury-prone Bogut will quickly sit in games, often in favor of three guard lineups. Raymond Felton who turned 32 on June 26, is now gone, after averaging 27.4 minutes per game last year. Those minutes are likely to divvied up among the new set of guards on the Mavs bench. I suspect J.J. Barea, who coincidentally also turned 32 on the same day as Felton, isn't likely to see anymore than the 20 minutes a game he always has. The same could be said about often banged up 33 year old combo guard Devin Harris.
No, the upside in minutes vacated by Felton -- and fantasy sleeper status -- lies in two younger guards, 22-year-old Justin Anderson and 25-year-old Seth Curry. Each are very different players, and how much they are utilized will depend on what the Mavs priorities are in a given lineup. The 6'6" Anderson is turning into a classic 3-and-D role player on the wing. If the Mavs want their best defensive 3 guard lineup on the floor, he's the guy out there on the wing alongside Matthews. He's also the one guy who could credibly play the "small forward" spot when Matthews sits, and should be considered the direct backup to Wes. He still needs to improve his efficiency from beyond the arc -- he only hit 26.5% from three last season -- but his shooting form is good. If he becomes an above average three point shooter and gets good run, he'll be a very nice fantasy asset. In a small sample last year (he averaged 11.8 minutes in 55 appearances), Anderson's per 36-minute numbers featured 7.3 rebounds, 1.2 threes, 1.1 steals, and 1.4 blocks -- a highly coveted combination of across the board production, and an especially valuable asset as a guard in an assists-punt team build.
Curry meanwhile brings way more of 3 right now, but none of the D. However, Curry started to show some offensive skills beyond just shooting last year, and if the goal of the Mavs smallball lineups is to have multiple ball-handlers on the floor, Curry's a better option than Anderson. Just watch how he destroys the Suns' Ronnie Price off the dribble in a game late last year. That's so sick, you'd be forgiven if you thought it was his older brother Stephen Curry in that Vine. If he does nothing else in his career, Seth will always have that Vine, and his fantasy owners will always have that stretch run with the Kings in 2015-16 that delivered countless fantasy championship wins. In nine games as a starter, he put up 14.4 PTS, 3.0 REB, 3.8 AST, 2.6 3PM, 0.9 TSL, 0.1 BLK, and 1.7 TOV on .436 shooting (.469 from three -- he shot worse from two than he did from three) and a .905 FT%. That's top 75 fantasy numbers.
Because of his defense and the depth at guard in Dallas, he surely won't get all of Felton's minutes (a bunch will clearly go to Anderson) and he won't see the same playing time he got in those nine starts with Sacramento. However, the upside for great production from Curry is there. In the long run it appears he's perfect to take over as a taller version of the bench sparkplug role currently filled by J.J. Barea. In the short run, he's a depth guard on a team featuring a 33-year old guard in Harris, a 32-year old guard in Barea, and Deron Williams, one of the most injury-prone players in the NBA. You've got to think the Mavs have a better chance of beating the Warriors in the playoffs than they do of surviving the regular season with all three of those guys fully healthy the entire time. When one of those guys inevitably goes down, it'll be Curry's chance to shine.
Forecast on the Frontcourt: Cloudy, with a Chance of Small Ball
The flipside to all these guards playing so much is that there's less fantasy production to go around with Dallas's forwards and centers. First things first, let's get this out of the way -- Dirk Nowitzki is still really good, and his craftiness and incredible jumper have remained even as his age has sapped him of any speed and athleticism. Last season, at age 37, he had yet another top 30 fantasy season. While he's obviously not going to be able to play forever, it would be silly to imagine his skillset will fall off a cliff. Last season did represent an uptick in minutes from the year before, and I imagine the Mavericks would prefer to keep him under 30 minutes this season, like they did in 2014-15.
However, he's still easily their best option on offense and his presence does so much for everyone else on the floor (J.J. Barea, for example, has not been anywhere near a good NBA player in his career when he hasn't had the privilege of sharing the floor with Nowitzki, and the ups-and-downs in his 16 starts which people found so maddening in DFS last year were entirely predictable based on whether or not Dirk was playing). The Mavs will need Dirk if they hope to get into the playoffs -- they can't just restrict him to 20 minutes a game and hope to get in. The impact of losing him would go beyond the loss of his productivity -- it would hurt the efficiency of everyone else in the Mavs rotation. Dirk is still the engine that drives this car.
As mentioned above, after failing to sign a true interior offensive force as a big man, the Mavs telegraphed their intention to continue the small ball lineups they ran with Parsons by dumping a bunch of money on the Warriors' small ball four, Harrison Barnes. It's hard to know what Barnes is going to be in Dallas, now that he's sure to get a lot more responsibility in the offense. Before his infamous choke job in the playoffs, he did hit 38% of his threes in the regular season, but his attempts were a constant stream of wide-open, deftly assisted looks. He never had to create his own shot, and the amount of open looks he's going to get are going to plummet away from the Bay. However, perhaps being allowed to attack the basket and handle the ball more often will allow him to develop the rest of his game. Even if his 3P% goes down, he may still be able to maintain a decent FG%, by increasing the ratio of interior shots he takes. If nothing else, he'll get more raw points per game in Dallas. And he's still only 24, so he has a chance to expand his game. I'll be curious to see where he's being drafted in fantasy leagues this fall -- he'll either be a sleeper with upside, or a raw player who's being overdrafted based on hopes and dreams.
Last year, Andrew Bogut averaged under 21 minutes a game for the Warriors, while outgoing Mavs center Zaza Pachulia, who has now replaced Bogut for Golden State, averaged just under 27 minutes a game (falling off precipitously in the second half of the season). It seems that at his age and with his injury history, it's unlikely Bogut plays too many more minutes than he did last year for the Warriors. He will, on the other hand, get the chance to be a bigger part of the offense when he is on the floor. I'd expect an uptick in points per game and the impact from his FG%, though that might be partially offset by more FTA and a larger negative impact from his poor FT%. On the whole, he is what he is, which means in standard 12-team leagues he's going to be a marginal producer and a low-upside late-round draft pick.
If you do the math -- Dirk playing a couple minutes less and Bogut playing less than Pachulia -- that does still leave a few extra minutes in this front court for the bench. Center Salah Mejri did come on strong at the end of the season, and will backup Bogut, but he's unlikely to be a fantasy option unless Bogut gets hurt, and may still get occasional DNP-CDs when Carlisle wants to go super small to exploit a matchup. A.J. Hammons, a talented rookie big man out of Purdue, may also eventually get a shot at some of the backup center minutes. The more interesting front court option than those guys, though, is 24-year-old PF Dwight Powell.
Powell only played 14.4 minutes per game last year, but he showed he's a good rebounder, a decent passer as a big, and has a developing mid-range game. While he only shot a dreadful 12.5% from three last season, he has the potential to extend out that far with more reps. He's likely to see spot starts in place of Dirk occasionally, and could be an intriguing DFS option. He also makes for an intriguing option as a small ball center who can bring a little bit of shooting and a little bit of passing to the role. I'd be interested to see how often he can net time in that role this year. As a deep league flyer or dynasty project, you could do worse than Powell.
Fantasy Round-Up
On the whole, I'm very interested in grabbing Seth Curry and Justin Anderson as late-round flyers, I like Wesley Matthews as a value pick, and I won't count on Dirk to replicate last season, but I won't let him slide too far either. Deron Williams I'm okay to buy if he's drafted below value, but generally don't want the headache. Bogut doesn't hold enough upside for me to take a flyer on. Barnes is the most fluid value for me -- if a bunch of upside is priced into his draft value, he could be a massive bust, but if enough people hold his Finals performance against him, he'll be a value pick. It's all about where his ADP lands.
