RADIO
Each NFL offseason is rife with changes that impact the fantasy value of various players. Whether it's the player's team changing or the player changing teams, there are many things that can affect a player's season outlook that have nothing to do with his actual ability. Opportunity is one of the most important factors in player assessment for fantasy purposes.
In the receiver world, targets are the lifeblood of fantasy value. The more targets a player is likely to see, the more receptions, yards, and subsequently fantasy points he will accrue. While a healthy market share of targets would seem a smart thing to chase on draft day, not all WR are bound to repeat last year's success.
Here are several players poised for a decrease in team target share.
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Targets Down
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
I like Kyle Rudolph as a low-end TE1 this season. In fact, he may be currently undervalued as the TE9 with an eighth round ADP. But he's not repeating the 139 targets he saw last season. Rudolph's command of 23.28% of the Vikings' targets was a combination of the running game's ineffectiveness, Stefon Diggs' injury, and Mike Zimmer being late to the party figuring out that Adam Thielen is really good at football. Cordarrelle Patterson is gone and he leaves behind 72 targets, but it's far more likely they are divided amongst Diggs and Thielen, who each saw 19.10% and 15.75% of the targets respectively. Those percentages are too low for a team's top two receivers. It wouldn't surprise me if Diggs and Thielen mirrored Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, who combined for 300 targets last season. Additionally, the Vikings didn't sign Latavius Murray and draft Dalvin Cook because they want to throw more. Rudolph will still be valuable, but that target count should drop by at least a target per game, if not closer to two.
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
Absolutely. No. Chance. 28.35% of the team's targets last year, which amounted to 165, will not come again. Julian Edelman was third in the league in targets! Not happening in 2017. Last year, like most years, the Patriots lacked a true number one receiver. They haven't had one since Randy Moss except for that brief time we thought Brandon Lloyd was the answer (he wasn't). Rob Gronkowski was hurt (surprise, surprise). Edelman played 16 games (probably just as surprising). So many factors came together that led to Edelman's 165 targets. This year, Gronk enters the season healthy and the Patriots added the immensely talented Brandin Cooks, who is certain to command at least 110 targets, likely more. Edelman is a good player and he obviously works well with Tom Brady, but he can't touch Cooks in raw ability. It wouldn't surprise me to see Edelman's target count drop to around 110-120. My 110 target estimate for Cooks is extremely conservative, too. It would be a huge upset if Edelman out-targeted Cooks. With that being said, there's been a huge overreaction in the fantasy community to Cooks' arrival. For some reason, fantasy players don't believe that Brady can support Gronk, Cooks, and Edelman as strong fantasy options. He can and he will. Edelman has fallen outside the top 24 wide receivers and actually has become somewhat of a value at his early fifth round ADP.
Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants
If you want to tell me Odell Beckham is the most physically gifted wide receiver in the league, I won't argue with you. In fact, I'd say only Julio Jones can compete in raw talent. Antonio Brown may be the best receiver in football, but he is nowhere near the top in raw talent. AB is the best because he's as close to technically perfect as you can get. AB is uncoverable. Beckham can be covered and it just may not matter. However, there is no shot Beckham sees another 180 targets, which led the league in 2016. The Giants drafted Evan Engram and signed Brandon Marshall. Sterling Shepard now has a full season under his belt as well. By no means do I think Beckham will be anything other than an elite WR1 this year. The presence of Marshall and Engram should mean the quality of Beckham's targets improves, thus allowing him to have a similarly productive season, albeit without the volume he's previously seen. There are too many options for Eli Manning to justify Beckham seeing 29.36% of the team's targets. Marshall is not going to be the target hog he's used to being, but he will be a factor in the red zone and be enough of a presence between the 20s to take some of the load off of Beckham.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one makes too much sense, yet it's the one I'm least confident about. Evans was behind only Beckham with 176 targets last year. That number actually accounted for a greater percentage of his team's targets, though, at 30.45%. Evans had just two fewer targets than double the next guy on the Bucs, Adam Humphries. With all of the injuries to the running backs, Jameis Winston attempted the 11th most passes last season at 567. I'm not entirely sure that number will drop, but Dirk Koetter certainly would like it to go down. Even if it stays relatively the same, the Bucs signed DeSean Jackson and drafted Chris Godwin and OJ Howard. The improvements to the supporting cast all but guarantees Evans will see fewer targets. DJax will get to 100 targets if he stays healthy and the combination of OJ Howard and Cameron Brate should get there as well. I anticipate Evans' target share being closer to 25%. Hopefully, the offensive additions provide for Evans to see higher quality targets, thus allowing him to improve on his bottom of the barrel 56.1% catch rate. I love Evans the talent, but think he suffers a bit from Winston's inaccuracy and tendency to haphazardly heave the ball in Evans' general direction, hoping for the big man to make a play. Evans is slightly overvalued at his 1.09 ADP. He's the fourth receiver off the board, but I'd feel more comfortable drafting the likes of Jordy Nelson and AJ Green ahead of him, as well as DeMarco Murray if we're considering running backs as well.
Rishard Matthews, Tennessee Titans
I really like Rishard Matthews. He's such an underrated talent who receives no respect. If you recall, Mike Mularkey, in his infinite wisdom, saw fit to push completely done Andre Johnson and forgettable Tajae Sharpe ahead of Matthews at the very beginning of 2016. When Matthews finally got his opportunity, he excelled. He finished the season leading the Titans with 109 targets (21.25%). The Titans responded to Matthews' performance by drafting not one, but two high-level prospects in Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor (both of whom are better than Mike Williams, I might add) and by signing Eric Decker. Taylor is unlikely to make much of an impact as a rookie, but Decker was signed by the number one receiver (pending his health) and Davis should play right away. While Sharpe's 92 targets should be closer to zero, it's going to be difficult for Matthews to reach 109 targets again with Decker and Davis in town. Additionally, the Titans are one of the most run heavy offenses in the league, finishing fourth in rushing attempts in 2016. They don't want to throw and when they do, Matthews will be competing with Decker, Davis, Delanie Walker, and DeMarco Murray for targets. As much as I like Matthews, he is overpriced even at his WR53 ADP. The depth chart is just too crowded. I'd much rather take a chance on the likes of John Ross, Josh Doctson, Taylor Gabriel, Cole Beasley, Ted Ginn, Cooper Kupp, and Curtis Samuel, all of whom are going after Rishard Matthews.
Brandon LaFell, Cincinnati Bengals
Not that anyone is drafting LaFell (because they aren't - and they shouldn't), but he won't come close to the 113 targets he saw last year. His high level of activity in the passing game was a result of the six games A.J. Green missed and the absence of Gio Bernard for the second half of the season. Add in the fact the team drafted John Ross and Josh Malone and you have the recipe for a huge drop in value for LaFell. Just in case anyone was looking at that target share and thinking they might be onto something others aren't - sorry to burst your proverbial bubble, but LaFell can be safely ignored in all formats.
