Best-Ball Strategy: RBs/WRs To Target After Round 10

We have reached the onset of training camps, which has intensified our anticipation for the regular season. Many of you are devoting your time during these final weeks toward the construction of rosters in every format. That is why the team at RotoBaller is providing your pathway to draft preparations by delivering non-stop updates, data-fueled analysis, and tiered rankings.

That includes our resources for managers who are participating in best-ball leagues. Anyone who has embraced this highly popular format is already aware that the decisions that are made during every round remain critical. Because the benefit of avoiding all forms of in-season roster management also eliminates your option of using a waiver wire if your players are sidelined or consistently deliver substandard production. This increases the significance of each selection once your drafts have progressed into the later rounds.

Any doubts regarding the importance of capitalizing on each opportunity throughout the entire draft should be eliminated by a reminder that James Robinson (133), Justin Jefferson (153), Brandon Aiyuk (154), Robby Anderson (160), Tee Higgins (223), Chase Claypool (265), and  Gus Edwards (299) remained available after Round 10 in last year’s drafts. Here is a group of players to target after Round 10 of current best-ball drafts, which includes the amazing graphics that were generated by Antonio Losada (@chapulana). You can also find the breakdown of quarterbacks and tight ends here.

Running Backs

Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions (ADP 121/RB44) 

When Williams signed with the Lions in mid-March, the news did not engender the same level of interest as other transactions that occurred during the initial phase of free agency. But the conversation surrounding Williams escalated after offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn’s comments positioned Williams as a back whose role would transcend operating as a mere backup to D'Andre Swift in the Lions’ reshaped offense. This fueled a rise in Williams’ ADP, which has elevated from outside the top- 150 in April (153/RB49), to the periphery of Round 10.

Former head coach Matt Patricia was jettisoned after his 13-29-1 record provided no discernible signs that the franchise was moving in the right direction. New head coach Dan Campbell selected Lynn to be the offensive coordinator on the Lions’ restructured staff. Both coaches now inherit an attack that ranked 20th in both total offense (350.2 yards per game) and scoring offense (23.6 points per game), while Detroit’s rushing attack finished an anemic 30th (93.7 yards per game).

The seemingly ageless Adrian Peterson led the Lions in rushing attempts (156/9.8 per game) and rushing yardage (604/37.8 per game). Swift missed three matchups (concussion/illness), but still finished second on the team in both categories (114 attempts/8.8 per game), (521 yards/40.1 per game). He also led Detroit’s backfield in targets (57/4.4 per game), receptions (46/3.5 per game), and receiving yards (357/27.5 per game). Peterson was not re-signed, which has provided Swift and Williams a pathway toward commandeering nearly all touches that will be distributed in the Lions' backfield.

Jamaal Williams with the touchdown catch in the red zone! @jswaggdaddy #GoPackGo

pic.twitter.com/Nd5XbacqLm

— Cougs in the Pros ?? (@BYUpros) November 22, 2020

Williams accumulated 23 red zone carries in 2020 and should confiscate a healthy percentage of goal-line attempts when the Lions sustain their drives. If Campbell and Lynn stubbornly rely on the run despite game scripts that would suggest otherwise, then Williams will also receive a reasonable percentage of those opportunities. He has consistently demonstrated his dependability as a pass blocker, which should keep him involved in certain passing situations.

Williams will also operate behind a capable offensive line and would receive an extensive workload should Swift be sidelined during the season. All of which presents your incentive to capitalize on his availability after your draft has entered the double-digit rounds.

James White, New England Patriots (ADP 163/RB51)

The concept of selecting this seven-year veteran might not create the same level of passion that exists with other backs who were available during the earlier rounds of your draft process. But the opportunity to seize a player with his track record of consistency as a pass-catching weapon should not be dismissed.

White missed two contests during 2020 (family situation). But he still finished 10th among all backs in targets (62/4.1 per game), while also finishing ninth in receptions (49/3.5 per game), and eighth in receiving yards (375/26.8 per game). It was the fifth consecutive season that White has finished among the top-10 at his position in targets. He has also placed inside the top six three times while averaging 5.8 targets per game during that span.

White also rose to fourth in targets from Weeks 11-17 (30/4.3 per game), while placing among the top-six in receptions (22/3.1 per game) and yardage (172/24.6 per game).

Signature James White Touchdown pic.twitter.com/ERIsv8IGmG

— IKE Badgers Podcast (@IKE_Badgers) September 15, 2019

White’s unfailing ability to perform efficiently as the Patriots’ primary receiving back should not be impacted by other members of the team's backfield. Damien Harris will function as New England’s primary rusher after leading the Patriots in yardage (691/69.1 per game) and eclipsing 100 yards three times from Weeks 4-10. But his involvement as a receiver was minimal (7 targets/5 receptions/52 yards). Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson is a candidate to pilfer touches at some juncture of the season, but should primarily function as a rusher.

Rex Burkhead was second to White in targets (33/3.3 per game), receptions (25/2.5 per game), and receiving yardage (192/19.2 per game) during 2020, but will be operating in Houston’s overcrowded backfield this season. Sony Michel has descended from consideration as any semblance of a threat to White. Managers who target White will be adding a veteran back whose defined role eliminates the uncertainty that exists with clear backups or unproven newcomers who are also available during Round 14 of your drafts.

Wide Receivers

Elijah Moore, New York Jets (ADP 130/WR50)

Moore became the sixth wide receiver to be selected during April’s NFL draft. This infused the promising newcomer into a franchise that will enter Week 1 with a new coaching staff and an inexperienced quarterback. However, Moore's attributes should propel him to an immediate role within New York’s reconstructed attack, with the likelihood that his usage and output will rise as the year progresses.

Moore accumulated 2,441 yards with his 189 receptions during three seasons at Ole Miss, while also generating 16 touchdowns. That includes his career-best results from 2020, which were built during eight matchups (86 receptions/1,193 yards/8 touchdowns).

Get your tickets now. The @e_moore03 show is coming to New York. ️ pic.twitter.com/D2otjYfyew
— NFL (@NFL) July 14, 2021

Moore will perform in an aerial attack that will be restructured following the arrival of new head coach Robert Saleh, and his handpicked offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. Both coaches will be tasked with improving a Jet offense that finished dead last in 2020 (279.9 per game) - which was one of many forgettable results that transpired during the catastrophic tenure of Adam Gase.

The rebuilt offense will also be spearheaded by newcomer Zach Wilson. His cluster of weaponry includes six-year veteran Jamison Crowder, who led the Jets in targets (89/7.4 per game), receptions (59/4.9 per game), and receiving yards (699/58.3 per game) last season. The selection of Moore created uncertainty since Crowder ran 81.1% of his routes from the slot. However, Crowder was retained after renegotiating his contract and will remain involved in the attack.

Former Titan Corey Davis will operate on the perimeter after generating career-highs in receiving yards (984/70.3 per game), 100-yard performances (five), and touchdowns (five) during 2020. But he has yet to provide evidence that he can perform effectively as a WR1. Denzel Mims returns for his second season after being limited to nine games, 44 targets (4.9 per game), 23 receptions (2.6 per game), and 357 yards (39.7 per game).

Zach Wilson and Elijah Moore are together in Florida putting in work before training camp ?#Jets pic.twitter.com/TBfJ0PSZ9l

— Optimistic Jets (@OptimisticJets) July 17, 2021

Moore is a difference-maker whose physical attributes and favorable work ethic should lead to a productive first season despite the presence of New York’s veteran receivers. His versatility supplies the potential for him to remain proficient in the slot while also lining up outside. He should function as a dynamic and reliable weapon as a rookie, which makes him an enticing option at his Round 11 ADP.

John Brown, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP 212/WR69)

As your drafts are nearing conclusion, some managers in your league may lose interest in researching their remaining options. However, you can continue to make savvy decisions by targeting late-round fliers who could deliver highly productive outings during the season. This applies to Brown, who currently remains available until Round 18.

He has entered a favorable situation with Las Vegas, as the Raiders lack a clear WR1. Darren Waller remains unchallenged as the Raiders’ primary receiving weapon. But Brown could become the team’s most productive option at his position while surpassing second-year receivers Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards on the Las Vegas depth chart. That does not present Brown with a herculean task.

John Brown is fitting right in ? pic.twitter.com/jjo6BMbodq

— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) June 9, 2021

Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock eschewed the opportunity to seize CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy during the 2020 NFL Draft when the Raiders invested the 12th overall selection on Ruggs. This decision has been scrutinized with rising intensity in the aftermath of Ruggs’ unsightly rookie season. He only finished fifth on the Raiders in targets (43/3.3 per game) and receptions (26/2.0 per game) and managed just two touchdowns. He also finished outside the top-10 among rookies in targets (12th) and receptions (11th) despite being the first member of his class to be selected.

The Raiders also used a third-round pick to secure Edwards, who only manufactured minuscule numbers as a rookie (15 targets/11 receptions/193 yards). He was limited to 259 snaps while contending with foot and ankle issues. But the results that were assembled by both newcomers allowed Nelson Agholor to lead the Raiders in targets (82/5.2 per game), yardage (896/56 per game), and touchdowns (eight).

Ruggs and Edwards remain unproven. This separates both players from Brown, who could easily replicate Agholor’s ascension into WR1 status for Las Vegas. He has exceeded 1,000 yards twice during his career. That includes the 1,060 he assembled with Buffalo during 2019 when he also established career highs in targets (115/7.7 per game) and receptions (72/4.8 per game). Multiple injuries forced his seven-game absence last season, while Brown’s per-game averages dropped to 5.8 targets, 3.7 receptions, and 50.9 yards per game.

However, his overall numbers (52 targets/33 receptions/458 yards) exceeded the 2020 totals for Ruggs and Edwards. This adds rationale for considering Brown as a strong candidate to become Gruden’s most targeted wide receiver. It also presents your motivation for selecting him near the end of your drafts.

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