Blake Snell (SP, TB) - 2018 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~190

CURRENT ADP: 218

By just glancing at his overall 2017 numbers, you probably wouldn’t be interested in drafting Snell this year. From 2016 to 2017, Snell’s ERA jumped from 3.54 to 4.04, while his K% dropped from 24.4% to 21.8%. While these numbers look bad, if we use the second half as our arbitrary time frame, Snell posted a 3.49 ERA through 77 1/3 innings with a 23.7% K-rate and an 8.0% walk-rate.

To be fair, the second half endpoint isn’t actually meaningless, as it’s around this time that Snell went through a significant mechanical change: he moved from the third-base side of the rubber to the middle of the rubber. This is likely what can be credited with his drop in walk-rate, which was all the way up at 14.5% in the first half, as well as an increase in velocity, with his fastball averaging 96 MPH by his final start. Snell’s mechanical changes are a legitimate impetus for his improvements. If he continues to pitch how he did in the second half, Snell will be a fantastic value.