RADIO
Last week, I posted a tweet on my account (@RotoSurgeon) that received a solid response so why not keep it going in a long-form fashion. They weren't all right but who doesn't like a good bold prediction? This week's edition is much more informative with some semblance of backing. Enjoy!
Jonathan Taylor finishes as RB1 overall and hits 200+ total yards
The Rams' defense is still great as a whole given that pass defense is most of what matters but they are seemingly weak against the rush. They were third in rush defense DVOA last season but 17th the year before and it's looking like this season might be reminiscent of 2019.
Offseason losses like Michael Brockers and John Johnson III certainly hurt in the run defense aspect, especially since they were not replaced by free agent/trade additions. David Montgomery in the mediocre Bears offense just carved them up last week with 108 yards on 16 carries and a touchdown.
Jonathan Taylor and the Colts' offense will force the issue on the ground to keep Aaron Donald away from Carson Wentz as well as keeping passes away from Jalen Ramsey's general direction. Taylor only played 55% of the snaps last week versus the Seahawks but that was in a 12 point loss and he still managed to touch the ball 23 times while leading the team in rush yards, receiving yards, and receptions. The Rams are favored by merely 3.5 points heading into Lucas Oil Stadium which makes me feel like it's a trap game that will expose them on the ground.
The Steelers' top-three receivers and Najee Harris all find the endzone
The Steelers have their home opener against the dreadful Raiders tomorrow and Ben Roethlisberger is probably pissed after last week's win. Big Ben comes off as a stat-padder who cares about his legacy. Although this is not quantifiable, you can imagine that no QB is happy seeing 188 passing yards and a 56% completion percentage.
The Raiders' secondary provides an opportunity to course-correct and even though historical stats don't predict future stats, Ben's had QUITE the career at home vs away--his splits are absurd.
Home: 65% comp, 226 TD / 90 INT, 7.92 Y/A
Away: 63.8% comp, 171 TD / 111 INT, 7.47 Y/A
Fire up Big Ben as the Steelers' implied total is 27.5 and trust all his receivers to eat. He will make sure to spread the love and make sure his rookie RB who played 100% of the snaps last week is taken care of.
Tyler Boyd leads Bengals WRs in scoring
Boyd was third in the target totem pole last weekend and seemed like a forgotten man as Tee Higgins and rookie Ja'Marr Chase ate but he is someone who will benefit from a tougher pass-rushing matchup. Joe Burrow looked great but the Minnesota defense did not. The Bears' defense is much stronger across the board despite not having LB Danny Trevathan and a weaker secondary than last season. Khalil Mack is still Khalil Mack and will cause havoc against an improved Bengals OL that is just fine at best.
Bengals' WR aDOT in Week 1:
Tyler Boyd - 6.5
Tee Higgins - 8.2
Ja'Marr Chase - 17
Tyler Boyd will be force-fed as Joe Burrow's troubles pile on with defenders in his face and a lesser ability to escape pressure.
Andy Dalton gets "revenge" and posts three TD with 300+ yards
This is more of a gut call than anything else. Everyone's talking down on the Bears for still starting Andy Dalton while keeping Justin Fields down but this week might be the game he shows up, particularly against his old squad in the Bengals. Chicago is playing at home after getting embarrassed in primetime and the Bengals are coming off an impressive win versus the Vikings. Chicago is favored by two points and that is ticked down from 3.5 earlier in the week.
The Bengals' defense looks better but still lacks a top corner after losing Will Jackson III this offseason. This will make for nice matchups all day for the Bears' WR1 Allen Robinson II. Darnell Mooney also received a ton of hype which was unfulfilled last week. This should all get made up for as Dalton and Coach Nagy look to prove a point.
Aaron Rodgers shuts everyone up and Green Bay wins by three scores
Less of a gut call on this one and more of a certainty. The Packers are favored by 11.5 points and that may be too low considering how ugly last week's matchup versus New Orleans was. The Saints molly whopped the Packers 38-3 and made Rodgers look so bad that Jordan Love subbed in. This week, in a divisional matchup versus one of the worst teams in the league, Rodgers will have a field day and put Detroit in a blender.
Detroit doesn't have a single CB that can match up with WR1 Davante Adams nor do they have a defense capable of slowing down the combo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Don't let a matchup against one of the league's best defenses fool you into thinking otherwise.
Rodgers might get benched in the fourth quarter again this week but for a different reason than last week. As much as Big Ben cares about his stats, Rodgers cares about the outside noise. He appears on Pat McAfee's Tuesday show almost weekly and knows all the narratives well and good. He embraces the noise and will be out for blood.
Trey Sermon out-scores and out-snaps Elijah Mitchell
Everyone and their mother added Elijah Mitchell this week after his breakout performance against the Lions to the tune of 19 carries, 104 yards, and a score. Nothing against him or that performance but the only reason that opportunity arose was due to Raheem Mostert's mid-game injury and the fact that third-round pick Trey Sermon was a healthy scratch.
Sermon reportedly "improved" in practice this week (whatever that means) and will be active which will make for an interesting split between him, Mitchell, and forgotten RB JaMycal Hasty. Sermon is the best prospect of the bunch and should have his fair share of opportunities even if Mitchell starts. Mitchell was great last week, but to some, left a ton of yards on the field and if he struggles can be usurped.
Tough to start any RB against an Eagles defense that looks better than last year but maybe that's a mirage due to the Falcons' egregious offense. Even if neither of the two primary RBs goes off, Sermon should still outdo Mitchell assuming that he gets targeted to boost those fantasy points (Mitchell had 0 targets in Week 1).
Taysom Hill snipes Jameis Winston's red zone TDs and outscores him in fantasy
Jameis Winston was truly fantastic in his Saints debut. Whatever they did to "fix" him, whether that be LASIK eye surgery or a mechanical change, it seems to have worked. New Orleans embarrassed the Packers as mentioned earlier and Winston threw five touchdowns with only 148 passing yards, an insane stat. He also rushed for 37 yards on six carries.
The Saints will continue to start Winston as long as he does not regress to Tampa Winston who threw as many picks as touchdowns but also will continue to incorporate Taysom Hill in short-yardage packages. Hill was not needed much in a 35-point victory but in a divisional matchup against Carolina, his skillset may be crucial as Carolina preps for Winston's arm.
The Panthers' defense looks significantly improved after adding Round 1 CB Jaycee Horn and free agent OLB Haason Reddick but they are still weak on the ground. Winston could struggle in what should be a close game and if he is looking shaky, Hill can take over, particularly in the red zone for those goal-line carries that he will convert to touchdowns.
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