Boom or Bust WR Predictions: Brandin Cooks, DeVante Parker, Calvin Ridley

There is a tremendous amount of depth at the wide receiver position in fantasy football this season. At the same time, the trend of NFL teams using the running back by committee approach is making it harder and harder to find a bell-cow running back these days. Consequently, most football players have justifiably abandoned the zero RB draft strategy. Who even came up with this approach?

How deep is the WR position in fantasy football? It’s so deep that based on FantasyPros’ consensus ADPs you can typically draft Julian Edelman, the Patriots’ WR1 who caught 100 passes last season, in the seventh round of a typical 12 team PPR fantasy football league. Sterling Shepard, who is a WR1 for the New York Giants, is typically drafted in the ninth round of similar leagues as per FantasyPros’ consensus ADP.

The following is an analysis of three wide receivers. Two that have a good chance to BOOM, or out-produce their consensus ADPs, and one who might potentially regress this season and could be a potential bust based on his current ADP. For the purposes of this article, we will be referencing FantasyPros consensus PPR ADPs.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

ADP: WR35, 84th Overall

Brandin Cooks entered the 2019 season having had four straight seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards. In those four seasons, he scored the 13^th-most fantasy points per game among WRs in PPR scoring formats. Cooks’ 2019 stats aren’t pretty. Multiple concussions and Rams QB Jared Goff’s regression contributed to Cooks’ mediocre 42 catch and 583 receiving yard stat line.

Cooks was traded to the Texans this offseason and with DeAndre Hopkins’ 2019 150 targets up for grabs, he has a good chance of leading the team in that category. We all know QB Deshaun Watson loves WR Will Fuller, but we also know that Fuller is unlikely to play a full season. Cooks provides Watson with a reliable target who can stretch the field. Some are concerned that the lack of a typical offseason might affect Cooks’ chemistry with Watson. However, with the Texans being the fourth team Cooks will be playing for in the past five seasons, his ability to adjust to new surroundings could serve him well this season.

His overall consensus ADP has him being selected in the eighth round of typical 12-team fantasy leagues, which makes him a potential value pick with plenty of upside. He does come with a bit of risk due to his history of suffering concussions, but if he plays 16 games look for him to catch at least 80 passes and six to eight TDs, and to compile 1100 or more receiving yards.

Verdict: BOOM

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins

ADP: WR24, 56th Overall

It was a long time coming, but the Dolphins and many fantasy football players alike were thrilled as they were finally treated to a Devante Parker breakout season. Unfortunately, fantasy players looking for Parker to replicate his 72 catch, 1202-receiving yard, nine-TD season may be in for a bit of a letdown. While Chan Gailey being hired as the Dolphins’ new offensive coordinator might appear to bode well for Parker due to his use of three WR sets in his past offenses, there are a couple of factors that Parker will encounter this season that don’t work in his favor.

Preston Williams’ recovery from his torn ACL has progressed much faster than originally expected. He has looked “better than ever” in camp this summer. Williams’ return could result in fewer targets for Parker. He’ll still be a very busy receiver but Parker might have a tough time coming close to the 128 targets he received last season. In his eight games last season, Williams actually out targeted Parker 60 to 52. Parker’s, (and the rest of the Dolphins WRs for that matter), production might be limited with the Dolphins playing a schedule that is considered the hardest for WRs this season. The Dolphins open up the season with two road games. One in Baltimore and one in New England.

Lastly, Parker’s production could also be negatively impacted when the Dolphins inevitably replace veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick with rookie signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa. Obviously, no one is sure exactly when this will happen, but it’s going to happen. The Dolphins will probably make the change later in the season, which could cause Parker’s production to take a hit right around fantasy football playoff time. Parker’s consensus ADP makes him the 24^th WR taken off the board in typical fantasy football drafts. By season’s end, he may have a hard time delivering on that fantasy production.

Verdict: BUST

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons

ADP: WR17, 45th Overall

There are many signs that point to Ridley having a huge 2020 fantasy season. He’ll be playing in a great environment for wide receivers. The Falcons led the NFL with a 66.97 passing play percentage last season. Ridley led those pass-happy Falcons in TD receptions last season (7) and also led all WRs in average cushion (the number of yards between a WR/TE and the defender they’re lined up against at the time of snap on all targets.) He finished second among NFL receivers in DVOA (value per play over an average WR in same game situations).

Ridley has missed some games due to injury in his brief career, but per 16 games he averages 70 catches, 931 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. Before his 2019 season prematurely ended in Week 13 due to an abdominal injury, Ridley was on his way to a 1000 yard receiving season. He still scored the 19^th most fantasy points per game among WRs in PPR scoring last season. Julio Jones is still the Falcons’ number one receiver, but Ridley has the potential to significantly narrow the gap between the two in 2020.

Verdict: BOOM

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