RADIO
We’re here looking for the next Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. The kind of guys who will help win and lose fantasy football seasons this year. The reality is, we’re very unlikely to have any players who end up in the same stratosphere of season Kupp and Robinson had last year, but that doesn’t mean we’re not going to look. Targeting boom players – those who are likely to significantly outplay their ADP – and avoiding bust players – those who are likely to fail to return value on their ADP – is the name of the game and how you can dominate your fantasy football draft.
Identifying who the most likely boom or bust players are requires looking at many different factors. Their environment matters. For receivers, the quarterback play and the offensive play calling can often have a drastic impact on a receiver’s production or lack thereof. We also want to focus on their target share and what kind of role they have. When we’re specifically looking for boom players at receiver, we need talent. The greatest environment in the world is not going to result in a player climbing the ranks, not unless they do their part.
We’re going to be looking at all of these different factors to identify six different receivers – three booms and three busts – who every fantasy manager should be targeting or avoiding this year. We’ll also be quickly looking at six other receivers – three bust and three boom – for deeper leagues.
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BOOM Fantasy Football Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos - WR16
Fantasy football managers are starting to take notice of Sutton’s immense potential in Denver this season. Unfortunately, that has kept his ADP climbing and it’s getting close to a scenario where fantasy managers are forced to have to buy him near his ceiling.
However, there’s no denying the fact that Sutton has top-10 upside with Russell Wilson behind center.
With the Tim Patrick injury, the Bronco hierarchy among their receivers has gotten a little bit easier to figure out. Fantasy managers no longer need to be as concerned about a spread-out target share. The expectation should be that Sutton and Jeudy lead the way with K.J. Hamler and Albert Okuwegbunam being role players.
While Jeudy is the younger and the player with the highest NFL Draft Capital, he’s struggled a bit since coming into the league. Sutton, on the other hand, has already displayed a dominant season despite poor quarterback conditions.
In 2019, just his second season in the league, he registered a 26.1% target share. It was the seventh-highest percentage in the league, a truly elite performance. As excellent as that is, it’s not what should have fantasy managers salivating at.
During that sophomore campaign, Sutton racked up 1,112 receiving yards, which was the 17th-most. However, he had 1,560 air yards, 10th-most in the NFL, and even more importantly, 773 unrealized air yards, which ranked 13th.
Back in 2019, the Broncos quarterback was Drew Lock, and according to PlayerProfiler, his catchable target rate was just 73%, 79th among qualifying receivers. Now, imagine if you will, that kind of utilization with Russell Wilson throwing the football. How high does his catchable target rate climb?
How many of those unrealized air yards become actually yards and how many of those missed deep balls end up going for long touchdowns? We’ll never know, but the answer is most definitely more and most likely a lot more.
Courtland Sutton:
- 5th most unrealized air yards
- 8th most air yards
- 16th in air yards share
- 2nd in aDot
- 6th most deep targets
- Year out from ACL injury
- New coaching staff
- Russell Wilson hereHow does anyone want Jeudy over that? Sutton could be a league winner.
— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) May 20, 2022
In his first season back from a torn ACL, fantasy managers saw Sutton operate similarly. While his target share dropped from 26.1% to 18.9%, some of that could be attributed to a change in his average depth of target (aDot).
In 2019, his aDot was 12.4 yards, which is an ideal range we want our fantasy receivers to be at. It’s not too short to lack upside, but not too deep to increase their volatility. In 2021, that number jumped up to 15.7, which was the second highest in the NFL.
It should come as no surprise to find out he once again dominated in air yards (1,534 – eighth-highest) and unrealized air yards (892 – fifth-highest). That kind of utilization will be very valuable with one of the best deep ball throwers in the game.
The one number that stands out like a sore thumb is his TD rate. Sutton scored twice on 98 targets, a 2.04% rate. In 2019, his TD rate was 4.76% and his career rate from 2018-2020 was 4.63%. Both are more than double what he did in 2021 and fantasy managers should be expecting much better TD luck in 2022.
When you factor in how Sutton is used downfield, the Patrick injury which is going to free up more targets, the very likely positive regression in his TDs, and the acquisition of Russell Wilson, Sutton gives off the appearance of a player who could boom even with a climbing ADP of WR16.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints – WR31
Fantasy managers are hesitant with Michael Thomas and it’s easy to understand why. He missed the entire 2021 season and played in only seven games in 2020. That’s a long hiatus from football and it can make you forget just how insanely dominant he was when he was playing, but let me give you a refresher.
|
Year |
Target Share |
Targets |
Receptions |
Receiving Yards |
TDs |
Air Yards |
Air Yards Share |
Yards Per Route Run |
Fantasy PPG |
|
2020 (7 games) |
27.9% (4th) |
55 (77th) |
40 (68th) |
438 (81st) |
0 |
523 |
42.5% (1st) |
2.22 (15th) |
9.1 p/g (46th) |
|
2019 |
33.2% (1st) |
186 (1st) |
149 (1st) |
1,725 (1st) |
9 (3rd) |
1,539 (12th) |
40.0% (4th) |
3.17 (3rd) |
18.8 p/g (1st) |
|
2018 |
28.8% (4th) |
147 (9th) |
125 (1st) |
1,405 (6th) |
9 (8th) |
1,175 (26th) |
29.6% (27th) |
2.89 (7th) |
15.8 p/g (7th) |
|
2017 |
28.1% (5th) |
149 (6th) |
104 (3rd) |
1,245 (6th) |
5 (27th) |
1,428 (20th) |
40.8 (6th) |
2.42 (9th) |
12.9 p/g (8th) |
|
2016 |
19.4% (40th) |
121 (20th) |
92 (9th) |
1,137 (9th) |
9 (6th) |
992 (47th) |
21.6% (60th) |
--- |
14.0 p/g (8th) |
In the table above, you’ll see his yearly stats and in parenthesis is where he finished among other receivers. Outside of 2020, where he spent the vast majority of the season playing injured, Thomas has been one of the very best and most consistent fantasy performers at the receiver position.
From 2016-2019, he never finished lower than eighth in half-PPR points per game. During that same time frame, he’s had at least 90 catches and 1,100 yards in every season. Excluding his rookie season, his lowest target share is 27.9%. Part of the narrative out there is, “yeah, but that was with Drew Brees.”
one of my favorite narratives of all time has to be that Michael Thomas is nothing without Drew Brees ?
you can have other concerns but who’s throwing him the ball really shouldn’t be one ?? pic.twitter.com/YjWpUgWIFN
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) January 11, 2022
In 10 games without Brees, Thomas averaged more fantasy points per game, more receptions, targets, and yards. Let’s also not pretend that Jameis Winston is a bad fantasy quarterback.
While NFL head coaches may be left wanting a little more out of him as a passer, fantasy managers have been very happy with what he’s done for his receivers and it sounds like Thomas is dominating in training camp and becoming a favorite of Winston’s, which is excellent news, but really shouldn’t come as a surprise based on his track record.
Mike Thomas just went up in the air, caught a pass on Roby, and got his toes down before being pushed out of bounds.
Two officials here called it a catch.
I don’t want to say he’s back, but he’s doing the kind of things a guy who is back would do.
— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) August 10, 2022
While there is reason to be hesitant about Thomas because of his long lay-off, all those concerns are currently being baked into his price. At WR31, there are very few – if any – receivers around him at his current ADP who have the kind of upside he has.
If Thomas ends up finishing as a top-12 receiver, we’ll all say, “we should’ve seen it coming” because that’s all he’s ever done when he’s been healthy. All reports are indicating he’s healthy now. At his current price, Thomas is a great candidate to boom.
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings – WR34
Fantasy managers are likely cautious around Thielen because he was injured last year and is 32 years old. Those are all valid reasons, but WR34? Check this out…
Adam Thielen is being drafted as WR35. STEAL.
-Vikings shifting to a more pass-centric & uptempo offense.
-In the last 5 years, he's finished as... WR15 (2021), WR7 (2020), WR43 (2019), WR8 (2018) & WR11 (2017) in half-PPR PPG.
-Cousins has 33 & 35 TDs the past 2 yrs.BUY.
— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) June 27, 2022
In the last five years, he’s been a top-15 receiver four times. In fact, you might be surprised to find out that Thielen’s point per game average last year (12.8) was the same as Keenan Allen's.
You might also be surprised to find out that his point per game average last year was higher than CeeDee Lamb, Michael Pittman Jr., A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Jaylen Waddle, and Marquise Brown.
Every single one of them is being drafted higher than Thielen and not by a little either. The lowest any of them are being drafted is Metcalf at WR26. The next closest is Waddle at WR17.
Since 2017 Adam Thielen has:
- Averaged 13.3 half-PPR PPG (WR7 based on 3 year average of WR scoring)
- Median PPG of 12.8 (WR8 over last 3 years)
- Averaged 133 targets, 91 catches, 1,146 yards & 10 TDs per year.
- Been a top-15 in PPG 4/5 years.Has an Underdog ADP of WR38.
— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) May 8, 2022
Look at the production Thielen has compiled since 2017. It really is crazy to think that you can currently draft a player with that kind of fantasy production at WR34, whose situation actually got better!
We know why Metcalf’s ADP has plummeted – Drew Lock and Geno Smith. That’s easy. On some level, it’s understandable. However, for Thielen, the Vikings hired a more up-tempo head coach in Kevin O’Connell, who is coming over from two years under Sean McVay.
They’re incorporating a more pass-centric offense, which should increase the number of targets to go around.
We know Justin Jefferson is going to be the No. 1, but there’s nothing to indicate Thielen won’t be the No. 2 on what should be a very exciting offense.
The Vikings’ defense still looks suspect, which will put this offense in a lot of unfavorable situations, but highly favorable for fantasy managers. If Thielen finishes as a mid-WR2 in 2022, we really shouldn’t be surprised and he can be drafted at times as your WR4.
BUST Fantasy Football Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers - WR7
Deebo Samuel was one of the most electrifying players in the NFL last year and was a true unicorn in every sense of the word. We’ve seen running backs double down as receivers, but have we ever seen a receiver double down as a running back?
That’s what Samuel did and the results were off the charts. He finished with 136 total touches, 1,770 scrimmage yards, and 14 touchdowns. He was the WR2 in half-PPR scoring with an 18.8 PPG average.
Unfortunately, everything about his 2021 screams regression. His receiving stats. His rushing stats. His touchdown rate. Everything. Everything screams regression and that’s without even factoring in the change at quarterback, which could result in a slightly different target distribution.
Or the fact that their backfield isn’t – at least not right now – weakened by injuries. There are question marks upon question marks and fantasy managers should be cautious considering the price tag.
In 2021, during the second half of the season, Deebo was essentially San Francisco’s No. 2 running back. In that time, he had 53 carries and scored on seven of them. That’s a 13.2% touchdown rate. Just how insane is that?
Well, Jonathan Taylor scored on 5.4% of his rushing attempts. If Deebo had scored at the same rate as Taylor, he wouldn’t have had seven touchdowns, he would’ve had 2-3. Nick Chubb had a 3.5% touchdown rate and if Samuel scored at the same pace as Chubb, he would’ve had 1-2. You can begin to see the problem.
While Samuel’s rushing prowess last season will keep him involved on the ground, fantasy managers should be expecting that role to decrease. The 49ers just signed him to a lucrative contract and for that to have value, they need him on the field.
The running back position takes a heavy toll on a player’s body. Not only that, but Elijah Mitchell is now in his second season and they drafted a third-round running back.
Also, you might’ve heard, but their now starting quarterback is a pretty darn good rusher in his own right. They might not need Deebo in the same role as last year.
While his 1,405 receiving yards look plenty fine on their own and you might be thinking, “who cares if he doesn’t get the carries, he was an elite receiver regardless,” you’d be right.
But consider this, in 2019, Samuel averaged 14.1 yards per reception. In 2020, it was 11.8 and then last year, that number jumped to 18.2. We should be expecting regression in this category even if everything from last year stayed the same, but it didn’t.
The team is replacing Jimmy Garoppolo with Trey Lance, which may have a positive effect overall, but at least in Lance’s first season under center, the passing game could be slightly worse. There were eight players last year to have more than 1,200 yards receiving. All but two of them had at least 150+ targets. Deebo had 123. More problems.
While Samuel was lighting the box sheet up in the first half of the season when he was used exclusively as a receiver, teammate Brandon Aiyuk was also in the dog house. From Weeks 1-8, Samuel averaged 10.1 targets per game.
Aiyuk averaged 3.3. During Weeks 1-8, Samuel had just six rush attempts. From Weeks 9-18, Samuel averaged 5.4 targets. This is also during the stint when he racked up 53 carries. However, Aiyuk’s targets per game jumped up to 6.2.
Just saying, “oh, Deebo’s targets went down because he was being used as a running back” isn’t taking the full picture into account. Was that some of it? Sure, probably, but Aiyuk also doubled his target per game average and by all accounts, Aiyuk has been the star of training camp.
There are just far too many regression factors and unknown circumstances we can’t really account for to feel confident about taking Deebo at WR7. He looks like an easy-bust candidate at his current ADP.
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins - WR9
There’s no denying Tyreek Hill’s fantasy exploits over the years. To put it plainly, he’s been one of the very best fantasy receivers of the past five years.
Excluding his rookie season, his per-game averages come out to a 17-game output of 142 targets, 95 catches, 1,368 yards, and 11 touchdowns. So why does he make the bust list? Because his game has been so predicated on elite efficiency and when you have Andy Reid at head coach and Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, that’s ok, but he’s not in Kansas anymore, Dorothy.
In 2017, he was the WR4 in half-PPR PPG average. He managed to finish WR4 despite being just 22nd in targets and a 27th ranked target share (21.3%). How’d he do it?
He finished 13th in yards per reception with a 15.8 average, and according to PlayerProfiler, he also finished with a true catch rate of 87.2% (14th-best). Do any of those efficiency metrics sound like they’ll translate to Tua Tagovailoa’s game? Nope.
In 2018, he was the WR3 in half-PPR PPG average. However, he was just 11th in total targets and had a 24.3% target share (15th). Again, his yard per reception average was very high.
He ranked eighth with a 17.0 average. He also finished with 13 total touchdowns, which ranked second among receivers. Is anyone expecting Hill to average 17 YPR and have 13 touchdowns with Tua? Not a chance.
In 2019, he finished as the WR9 in half-PPR PPG. His target share was just 25th amongst receivers, a 21.9% clip. Despite missing four games, he still managed to tie for 13th in touchdowns. Elite efficiency once again makes up for a lack of volume.
He finished with just 7.42 targets per game, which ranked just 27th. If Tua gives Hill just 7.42 targets per game, will he finish as a top-10 receiver? He will not. Hill had 13 TDs in 12, but even 13 TDs in 17 games with Tua is a long shot.
In 2020, he was the WR2 in half-PPR PPG average. He finished ninth in total targets, largely because the Chiefs passed the ball more than the vast majority of the league.
However, his target share once again waned, just 23.4%, which ranked 22nd among receivers. He finished with 17 total touchdowns, the second-highest. Hill actually scored more touchdowns in 2020 than Tua passed for last season so it’s probably safe to say that a 17-touchdown season isn’t in the cards for him.
2021 was the first year in Hill’s six years in the NFL where he had a target share higher than 25%. He finished at 25.1%, which ranked 16th. He’s never finished higher than 15th in target share and in four out of his six seasons, he finished with a target share outside the top 20.
None of this is to say Tyreek Hill is not good. He most certainly is, but he’s also been a big beneficiary of Reid’s pass-heavy system in Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes’s MVP-level of play.
-Tyreek Hill’s best target share in 6 yrs is 25.1%. Jaylen Waddle’s was 24.8% as a rookie
-Hill’s most catches ever is 111. Waddle had 104 as a rookie
-Waddle’s over/under for receiving yards is 925. Hill’s is 999-It’s close to 50/50 on who has the most fantasy points in 2022.
— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) August 2, 2022
Interestingly, Jaylen Waddle put up a 24.8% target share as a rookie, which was just 0.3% percentage points lower than Hill’s career high set in Year Six. Tagovailoa and Waddle also already have the built-in chemistry from having played with each other from last season. There are also concerns regarding how Hill’s skills fit with Tagovailoa’s play style.
Last year, Tua attempted just 2.15 deep passes per game (throws with at least 20 air yards), according to PlayerProfiler. This ranked 31st among quarterbacks. Remember how Hill was able to be an elite fantasy asset without having an elite target share? A high YPR and a high TD rate. Tagovailoa did not throw the ball downfield last year, at all.
In Mike McDaniels’s lone season as the 49ers’ offensive coordinator, they finished 29th in team pass attempts. Since Hill started his reign of fantasy dominance, the Chiefs ranked 17th (2017), ninth (2018), 15th (2019), third (2020), and second (2021) in team pass attempts. There is team passing volume issues in Miami.
If Miami passes less in 2022, which we should all expect, and Hill's efficiency drops, which we should also expect, then his current top-12 price tag is too high. Hill is likely best treated as a mid-WR2. However, if Waddle becomes the No. 1 or Tua doesn't take a step forward, the floor is lower than you might think.
There is a history of Hill not commanding an elite target share. There are concerns regarding how his skill set meshes with Tua’s. There are concerns regarding the Dolphins incorporating a brand-new offense.
There are concerns that Waddle could actually be the most targeted player in Miami. Hill’s current ADP might be able to handle 1-2 of these, but all of them? He likely busts at his current ADP and there’s a real possibility he could bust hard.
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills - WR21
This is just pure insanity people. Pure insanity. Let’s take an absolute best-case scenario look at Gabriel Davis, shall we?
We’re going to give Davis 515 routes run in 2022. This is the combined total of Emmanuel Sanders from Weeks 1-13 and Gabriel Davis from Weeks 14-18. We’re also going to give Davis a 22.2 target share, which was his target rate from last season.
In 2020, his target rate was 13.7%. We also know target rate does not have a strong positive correlation with the target share. Don’t’ confuse the two. The target rate is how often a player is targeted on their total routes run. Target share is how many targets they have out of the team’s total.
Davis ranked 88th in total routes run with just 284, so his 22.2% target rate is working off of a very small sample size with no historical stats that back this up, but let’s continue. A 22.2% target rate on 515 routes equals 114 targets.
This is an absolute best-case scenario. On his career 56% catch rate, we’d expect 63 catches. Using his career 16.4 YPR, he’d finished with 1,033 yards. Now, that may not sound bad but remember… that was his absolute best-case scenario. In half-PPR scoring, this would equal 171 points with six touchdowns, 183 points with eight touchdowns, and 195 with 10 touchdowns.
Based on half-PPR scoring in 2021, if he finished with eight touchdowns and 183 points he would’ve finished, wait for it… WR21. That’s giving him a full-time starting role opposite Diggs and giving a very, very generous 22.2% target share, which is really based on nothing at all.
Even during Weeks 14-18 when Davis became the No. 2 starter, his target share was just 21.5%, which illustrates just how generous the 22.2% target share we gave him earlier really was. Despite this, using his career averages and receiver scoring from last year, he’d still just finish at WR21.
If I’m taking an absolute best-case scenario for any player I’m interested in drafting, his projected positional finish better be higher, ideally much higher, than where I’m drafting him at. Drafting Davis at WR21 is something like this. You go to a card shop and see a rookie card for Aaron Rodgers for just say $100.
Then you see a rookie card for Trey Lance for $100 and then you buy the Trey Lance card. You’re paying a high price for someone that hasn’t really done anything yet. The potential is there. He’s popped a few times, sure, but this is getting out of control. Make the smart decision.
Deeper League Wide Receiver BOOMS
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks – WR47
The disrespect has gone way, way too far. It’s no mystery that his quarterback is no longer Russell Wilson. That’s not ideal. However, we’re still talking about one of the top-25 receivers in pure talent being drafted almost 50% lower than what his talent indicates.
He’s being drafted around back-ups and the “well, he’s got some potential” kind of guys. Betting on talent is almost always a good idea. It’s an even better idea when the cost is essentially free.
Tyler Lockett is being drafted as WR45.
-Target shares of 24%, 24.6%, 22.3% the last 3 yrs.
-WR13 in 2021, WR12 (2020) & WR22 (2019) in half-PPR PPG.
-1459 (2021), 1286 (2020) & 1479 (2019) in air yards.
-2.58 (2021), 1.74 (2020) & 2.37 yards per route run.BUY the dip.
— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) June 27, 2022
Lockett is a supremely talented receiver who isn't in the greatest situation but is still being under-drafted. He's not going to be a WR1 or high-end WR2 like he's been in recent years, but is being a top-36 receiver out of the question?
It really shouldn't be. He's still likely to command the same number of targets as he has in recent seasons, so while we should absolutely expect his targets to be less efficient, expecting him to drop 30+ plus spots in the fantasy receiver rankings is quite a large fall from grace.
In deeper leagues where you’re starting 4–5 receivers every week, Lockett is a solid choice. He can easily give you WR3 numbers based on his likely 115+ targets and his talent and he can be had as your WR4 and in some cases WR5.
Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys – WR54
This is an easy smash play. Tolbert was drafted in the third round this past year. He finished his college career with a 33.4% target share (96th percentile) and a 51.2% college dominator rating (97th percentile). He’s already an interesting player especially coupled with a 4.49 40-time.
Some Jalen Tolbert tape as he flies up fantasy rankings pic.twitter.com/lcAeGOc1nu
— Winks (@HaydenWinks) August 1, 2022
It only gets better though. James Washington, the receiver Tolbert was supposed to battle for the No. 2 starting spot opposite CeeDee Lamb, is already out for the next 10-12 weeks with a foot injury.
Michael Gallup has already all but ruled himself out for Week 1. Anytime a player is ruling themselves out of a game 4-5 weeks before the actual game, it’s not good news.
Last year, the Cowboys' offense ranked first in yards and points. They were sixth in pass attempts, second in yards, and third in touchdowns. They traded Amari Cooper and lost Cedrick Wilson in free agency. It doesn’t take much to see how Tolbert could absolutely smash his current ADP.
Kenny Golladay, New York Giants – WR55
People forget, but Golladay was pretty good back in the day. Despite being a third-round rookie in 2017 and competing for targets with Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr., and Eric Ebron in Detroit, Golladay still finished with 477 yards. Not bad for a rookie.
Then in his sophomore campaign, he finished with 70 catches, 1,063 yards, and five touchdowns. He finished as the WR21 that season. Then in his third season, he would go on to lead the entire NFL in touchdown receptions. He finished with 65 catches, 1,190 yards, and 11 touchdowns. This time he finished as the WR6. Not bad, right?
In 2020, he only appeared in five games, but his on-pace stats were in the same range as his previous two seasons. He was averaging 67.6 yards per game, which equals 1,150 over 17-games. He was also averaging four receptions per game or 68 over 17-games. Again, pretty good, right?
Then the wheels came off in 2021. However, he struggled with injuries throughout the offseason and rarely was able to participate in training camp, which is a big deal considering he was on a new team and learning a new offense.
He continued to play through injuries during the entire 2021 campaign. His struggles weren’t all his fault though either. The Giants finished 31st in yards and points. They were 31st in passing yards and 30th in passing touchdowns.
Daniel Jones finished 23rd in completion percentage, 21st in yards per game, 30th in passing touchdowns per game, and 26th in yards per attempt.
With a better coaching staff and an improved offensive line, all of a sudden all of the Giants’ skilled players are in a much better position for fantasy success in 2022. However, despite these improvements, there's still this narrative that Matthew Stafford "made" Kenny Golladay.
In 2019, the year Golladay finished as the league leader in touchdowns and was the WR6, well... Stafford missed eight games. Everyone forgets about that, ya know?
Stafford didn't throw a single pass from Weeks 10-17 and during that time Golladay was the WR15 with an 11.8 half-PPR PPG. He had 54 targets, 30 receptions, 550 yards, and 4 touchdowns across eight games. His per-game averages taken over a 17-game schedule comes out to 115 targets, 64 catches, 1,169 yards, and 8 touchdowns. His quarterbacks during that time: David Blough and Jeff Driskel.
Golladay has a fairly easy path to 110-120 targets. We should expect the Giants’ offense to be better this season and that includes the quarterback play. Either Jones will take a step forward or he won’t, but if he doesn’t, Tyrod Taylor has plenty of starting incentives baked into his contract.
Taylor won’t throw for 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, but he’s at least dependable and keep the offense on track. If Jones plays as he did in 2020 and 2021, even Tyrod Taylor would be a significant upgrade.
Deeper Leagues Wide Receiver BUSTS
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles – WR37
This is a simple math equation. The Eagles were the 32nd-ranked team in pass attempts. They had the fewest number of targets to go around.
As a rookie, competing with just Jalen Reagor at receiver, Smith finished as the WR29 but was just WR38 in half-PPR PPG average among receivers with at least nine games played so he rarely moved the needle even last year. Then they traded for A.J. Brown, a true alpha receiver by every sense of the definition.
Not only that, but Smith has struggled with injuries this offseason and has been nursing a groin injury. In the meantime, Dallas Goedert and A.J. Brown are being peppered with targets and forming strong chemistry with Hurts.
Receiving Training Camp Stats (Through 7 Practices)
Goedert: 24/30, 1 TD
AJ Brown: 20/27, 3 TD
DeVonta Smith: 6/10, 0 TD
Watkins: 4/10, 2 TD
Reagor: 11/17, 3 TD(catches/targets)
Some notes:
Smith has missed 2 practices
Reagor/Watkins stats r mixture of 1st/2nd team#Eagles— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) August 7, 2022
Even though Smith has missed two practices, would you look at the discrepancy in targets between Smith and Goedert, and Brown? Smith has gotten 10. Goedert has 30. Brown has 27. That should be terrifying.
Smith’s average depth of target last year was 14.4, which was the sixth-highest and shows he was primarily used down the field, which is a concern for his fantasy consistency.
It creates a lot of volatility week to week because the targets he does get are generally not as successful. He finished with just 103 targets, 32nd-most among receivers and that was without AJB. Even more concerning, look at what happened post-Zach Ertz trade.
-Last yr (includes 6 weeks w/Ertz still an Eagle), Dallas Goedert had a BETTER target rate (26.9%) than Devonta Smith (24.2%)
-W/Ertz traded, Goedert averaged MORE targets, receptions & yards per game than SmithVery real chance Smith is #3 in a low passing offense. BIG Yikes!
— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) July 11, 2022
After Ertz was traded, Goedert became Hurts’ No. 1 target, not Smith. Now, with Brown in the fold, Smith could very well drop to No. 3 on Hurts’ target hierarchy, which is a very bad place to be and this fits with what we’ve seen out of training camp.
Even in Kansas City where the volume and quarterback play is great, being the No. 3 on the target hierarchy isn’t good. It’s an even worse place to be when the quarterback play is questionable and the overall team volume is bad. Smith is an easy-bust candidate for 2022.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints – WR44
This is another math question. When healthy, if you recall from the table above, Thomas has been an elite-elite target share earner when healthy.
Jarvis Landry has had target shares of 24.7% (2021), 24.5% (2020), 26.6% (2019), 26.4% (2018), and 27.4% (2017) in the past five years. And then there’s still Alvin Kamara. He’s had target shares of 20.2% (2021), 22.5% (2020), 20.1% (2019), 21.4% (2018), and 19.1% (2017) dating back to his rookie season. That is an insane amount of target competition.
Based on Olave’s collegiate career, it’s likely he’ll be used as a primary deep-ball threat for the Saints to open up the underneath routes for Thomas, Landry, and Kamara. This kind of role will lead to some big weeks, but predicting when they’ll come will be next to impossible.
Think of Chris Olave in something of a Marquez Valdes-Scantling role. That might be a useful asset in best ball leagues, but in redraft, due to the amount of target competition, Olave’s consistency week to week will wane and his final standing will be negatively impacted because of it.
Russell Gage, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WR49
Earlier in the offseason, Gage was one of the biggest winners. Tom Brady recruited him personally. Chris Godwin was coming off a late-season torn ACL where he might start on the PUP list and miss as many as six games.
Fast forward a few weeks and Chris Godwin is not on the PUP list and is actually practicing already. Not only that, but the Buccaneers signed Julio Jones. Maybe you’ve heard of him? Even if Julio isn’t the Julio of old, his addition shrinks the target pool. Julio’s addition is nothing compared to a healthy Chris Godwin, however.
The expectation earlier in the offseason was that Gage would start in the slot while Godwin was on the PUP. Once Godwin came back, Gage and Godwin would both be regular starters in 11-personnel sets. Now, all of that is a question mark.
We know Godwin will be the full-time slot player if he’s healthy, but that’s a position Gage has primarily occupied in his career. Does that mean Julio will be the receiver opposite Mike Evans with Godwin in the slot, which leaves Gage where?
Even if Gage and Julio alternate, his target share and number of routes have drastically dipped since the start of the offseason. Fantasy managers should be concerned about how the Buccaneers’ receiver room is taking shape and there are questions as to where exactly Gage fits in.
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