Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 7 Lineups

Although we did see some surprising performances (Jaylen Waddle and Donovan Peoples-Jones), Week 6 in fantasy football saw somewhat of a return to normalcy. More of your well-known and upper-echelon players put in solid weeks and brought forth plus production. Whenever we see these types of weeks, it can set fantasy managers' minds at ease by solidifying their stance on certain players that were drafted at lofty prices. But as much as this can be a settling feeling, it can be placing you into a trap as well. It can give you a false sense of security about a player while you give them a free pass into your starting lineups. Forgetting the true edge you can give yourself against an opponent and that is simply outworking them in lineup preparation.

Lineup preparation is never as much of a key as it is when the bye weeks hit. Couple in the number of injuries that continue to pile up and we have a recipe for disaster. That is never more prevalent than it is in Week 7. With six teams on bye, a lot of managers are stretched thin. But when heavy hitters like Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley are missing time, the waiver wire tends to get hit hard. With players like Khalil Herbert and D'Erenest Johnson being heavily sought-after targets, you know we are scraping the bottom of the barrel in attempts to fill starting rosters. The deeper we dive into the waiver wire, it only amplifies the diversity of starting lineups that are being constructed.

That is exactly where lineup preparation comes into play the most. Most of the players being thrust into starting lineups during these thin weeks are not "set it and forget it" types of individuals. If anything they put you into more of a thinking game in terms of who is the better play. You simply can not go by projections and click submit. Understanding matchups and digging into the analytics can only help you succeed during these weeks. That is where I come into play. In an attempt to alleviate the thought process, I dive into the numbers to present a few players that can surprise and help lead you to victory. While also pointing out the players that could disappoint in Week 7.

Week 7 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Tua Tagovailoa vs. Atlanta Falcons

After the three-game absence, Tagovailoa came back with a vengeance in Week 6. Playing from behind during most of the game, he set season highs across the board, including his first 300-yard performance of the year. This week's matchup is rather intriguing as you would expect to see this become an offensive game with both defenses playing inconsistently throughout the season. Although he will be facing a secondary that currently allows just 17.4 FPPG to the position, look for much of the offense to be on Tagovailoa's shoulders due to the Dolphins' inability to run the ball. I expect to see a positive game script for Tagovailoa which he should be able to capitalize on and produce quality numbers in Week 7. I have him as a fringe QB1 and someone worth streaming if you are fighting with the bye week blues.

Miles Sanders @ Las Vegas Raiders

This one could be a bit of a stretch as Sanders has been left for dead and ridiculed for much of the 2021 season. Rightfully so, as he currently sits at RB36 in FPPG (9.9) and ranks just 31st at the position with 57 carries on the season. Obviously, the coaching staff views him as an afterthought based on how the offense is currently constructed. But this week they have said they need to get Sanders more touches and it could not come in a better week. Sanders will be facing a Raiders defense that currently ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed to opposing running backs (18.2 FPPG). In fact, the Raiders have allowed at least one score in four out of six games this season. If the coaching staff stays true to their word and involves Sanders more this week, he is a solid play as an RB2 in Week 7.

Robby Anderson @ New York Giants

Another player that has gone forgotten in fantasy circles, Anderson is starting to see things come around from a usage standpoint. He has seen 29 targets over the team's last three games after a very slow start. Although he still sits at WR69 on the season in FPPG (7.7), he sits firmly inside the top 10 in routes ran (214). The usage will eventually hit in a big way. That could come this week as he sees a positive matchup against a Giants secondary that ranks in the bottom third in points allowed to the position (26.4 FPPG). With the bye week and injuries playing such a major factor, fantasy managers could utilize Anderson as a WR3 in starting lineups with this matchup.

Cole Kmet @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The trend of ill-forgotten players continues with Cole Kmet. A tight end that was seeing a lot of hype as we entered the 2021 season. After his disappearing act during an early three-week stretch, things are starting to turn around. He's had nine targets and six receptions over the last two games as Justin Fields continues to get his feet wet in the NFL. Kmet ranks inside the top 10 at the position in deep targets (3) and average target distance (9.4), indicating an attempt to take advantage of mismatches down the field. Those are the types of plays the Bears will need in Week 7 as they should be playing from behind against the Buccaneers on the road. Currently ranked as a bottom-five defense in points allowed to the position (11.4 FPPG), Kmet could see some value as a streaming option for fantasy managers this week.

Week 7 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Derek Carr vs. Philadelphia Eagles

After being an early-season surprise and a top 10 option in fantasy, Carr has faded as of late with only one QB1 finish over the last three games. His deep analytic numbers are still impressive as he ranks inside the top 5 in both passing yards (1,946) and air yards (2,118). Where the disconnect lies is turning the yardage into scoring as he ranks just 15th in FPPG (19.4). Expect to see that trend continue in Week 7 as he is faced with a tough matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in points allowed (19.2 FPPG). Even as managers are faced with tough decisions during the bye week, there could be other options to stream over Carr in this matchup.

Elijah Mitchell vs. Indianapolis Colts

Mitchell was all the rage on the waiver wire after his impressive Week 1 performance for fantasy managers. But let's face it, he has struggled since. Whether it be due to subpar play or missing time due to injury, he has yet to get back to startable fantasy relevance. He is viewed as a starter in name alone and expected workload in the 49ers backfield. The team is a top 10 offense in run plays per game (28.6) but during his time Mitchell has only provided RB31 numbers with 10.6 FPPG. Look for the going to be tough yet again in Week 7 as he faces a difficult matchup against a Colts defense that allows just 13.5 FPPG to the position. Due to the bye week and injuries haunting teams, Mitchell may be in lineups, but I would not expect much in terms of production.

Tyler Lockett vs. New Orleans Saints

Speaking of lack of production, that brings us to Tyler Lockett. After the first two games of the season, he was a top 5 player at the position. Since then he has just 15 receptions in four games with no scores and a high yardage mark of 57. He ranks 11th at the position in snap share (89.8%) but that has only translated into 167 routes ran, ranking him 43rd. Add in the fact that the offense is being operated by Geno Smith, and you have a recipe for disaster. I would not expect things to get better for Lockett in Week 7 as he faces a stout Saints defense that is well rested after their bye. Again, many fantasy managers may not have the luxury to sit Lockett on the bench, but lowering expectations of production should be warranted.

Tyler Higbee vs. Detroit Lions

Higbee has been performing on a Jekyll and Hyde pace to begin the 2021 season. His deep analytical numbers are wild to look at as he ranks tops at the position with nine red-zone targets, ninth in receptions (22), but only 15th in FPPG (9.0). Although he plays on the high-powered Rams offense, there are simply too many mouths to feed to expect consistent fantasy production from Higbee. I expect that to again be the case in Week 7 as he faces a Lions defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in points allowed to the position (5.7 FPPG). Look for the Rams to get out in front early on in this game, then rely on the running game to carry things home. Which will limit Higbee's opportunities. With the position being such a crap-shoot weekly, Higbee will be starting in most lineups but managers should lower expectations.

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