RADIO
Having some baseball withdrawal yet? Welcome to the club. That's why I'm starting a weekly series running through November looking at players at each position who experienced breakout campaigns. I'll also run another segment detailing the busts at each position.
This edition will focus on middle infielders and backstops. My selections will be influenced by their respective ADP (Average Draft Position) coming into 2015. That means while Mookie Betts had an excellent season ranking as the No. 3 second baseman, he will not be highlighted due to his high ADP (4th among 2B).
In addition to focusing on breakout players and what went right in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether the production is sustainable or if we were witnessing a fluky season. This is going to be a lengthy piece as we tackle three positions (2B, SS, C) so grab a drink and some popcorn. Let's get started.
Breakout Players at 2B
Matt Duffy (SF - 2B, 3B, SS)
2015 Statistics: .295/.334/.428, 77 R, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 12 SB
Before I start, yes I realize Duffy made only seven starts at second base, but in most formats that's enough to retain eligibility. So deal with it.
Duffy is a great example of why you should pay more attention to a player's minor league development. An 18th round pick in the 2012 Amateur Draft, Duffy was fantastic in 2014 for AA-Richmond, compiling a .332/.398/.444 split in 417 PA. After being promoted to the big leagues in 2014 he failed to impress in 64 PA, which may have led to his poor ADP going into 2015.
Duffy was ranked 35th among 2B going into the 2015, behind the likes of Scooter Gennett, Javier Baez, Chris Owings, and Brad Miller. Duffy proved all the doubters wrong, posting a 4.9 WAR (2nd overall among 2B). He didn't lead qualified 2B in any category, but he was a balanced enough contributor in 5x5 formats to rank 8th overall.
So can Duffy repeat his 2015 success? I'm inclined to say no, although I still believe Duffy will be a useful fantasy commodity. His .336 BABIP was 5th among qualified 2B which may be a cause for concern for some, but I think it's sustainable. Check out his spray chart below.
Matt Duffy Spray Chart for 2015 (per FanGraphs)
Duffy has shown the ability to spread the ball to all fields along with solid plate discipline. His 29.9 O-Swing% (percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone) was 8th among qualified 2B and on par with his minor league numbers.
The stat that concerns me is the .366 average with RISP. That ranked second among hitters with at least 100 PA with RISP, trailing only Nolan Arenado (.373). Is that sustainable? Unlikely. But that doesn't mean the regression will be drastic. Batting in front of Buster Posey means plenty of fastballs. With a healthy Joe Panik and Hunter Pence, the top of the Giants lineup should be formidable once again in 2016. Look for Duffy to remain a top-10 2B option, just don't overpay for his services.
Logan Forsythe (TB - 1B, 2B)
2015 Statistics: .281/.359/.444, 69 R, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 9 SB
Here's another name that was on no one's radar coming into 2015. \Forsythe was given an everyday playing opportunity with Tampa Bay and made the most of it, setting career-highs in the respective categories above. His offensive 16.6 runs above average placed him 2nd among all 2B, while his .163 ISO ranked fourth among 2B, ahead of Robinson Cano, Jason Kipnis, and Neil Walker.
So what went right for Forsythe? The biggest adjustment was his ability to handle righties. Check out his splits vs RHP from 2014 to 2015.
Logan Forsythe - Splits vs RHP (2014-2015)
He improved in every facet against righties. The biggest takeaway is the improved bat discipline; a better walk rate means more pitches in hitter-friendly counts. Forsythe's .323 average when ahead in the count exemplifies that.
Can Forsythe translate this success over to 2016? That's hard to bet on. His .323 BABIP and .350 wOBA were both career highs, but he did adjust his plate approach by lifting his leg a bit higher and Rays hitting coach Derek Shelton was adamant with Forsythe about remaining consistent. Fantasy owners are likely to be as skeptical come draft time next year, so Forsythe should come at fair value. His 2016 projections currently have him as a .254 AVG, 13 HR, 61 RBI player. In the shallow pool that is second base, that's a top-10 option.
Breakout Players at SS
Carlos Correa (HOU - SS)
2015 Statistics: .279/.345/.512, 52 R, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 14 SB
Go ahead and read that stat line above. Now remind yourself that Carlos Correa is 21 years old. Talk about Dallas Keuchel and Jose Altuve all you want. Without Correa there is no way the Astros make the playoffs in 2015. After joining the team in June, Correa went on to lead all shortstops in HR (22), SLG (.512), wOBA (.365), wRC+ (133), and ISO (.233). And he didn't even eclipse 435 PA. To say the future is bright for Correa is an understatement. He's on pace to melt our faces.
It's almost impossible to find a flaw with Correa. He hits both righties and lefties effectively, and he has power to all fields. If there's one downside it's the home/road splits as he managed to hit .243 away from Minute Maid Park. Minute Maid is a more RHB-friendly environment, but I'm willing to chalk that up as a small sample size. It's definitely not enough to shy away from Correa come draft day.
His current 2016 projections according to Steamer are .275/.340/.458 with 83 R, 22 HR, 84 RBI, and 21 SB. The same amount of homers with an extra 200 AB? I don't think so. Look for Correa to reach 30 HR and become a sure-fire top 15 pick for years to come.
Xander Bogaerts (BOS - 3B, SS)
2015 Statistics: .320/.355/.421, 84 R, 7 HR, 81 RBI, 10 SB
Bogaerts wasn't technically a part of the Year of the Rookie but he definitely is included in the youth movement at shortstop. Just 23 years old, Bogaerts led all SS in runs, average, and on-base percentage while trailing only Brandon Crawford (84) in the RBI department. These numbers are quite a leap from his disastrous 2014 campaign (.240/.297/.362). So what changed?
He abandoned the pull-happy tendencies that plagued his 2014 season. His pull rate dropped to 33.8% (46.9% in '14) while going the other way 32.0% of the time (19.3% in '14). As a result his fly ball rate dived from 41.3% to 25.8% and his ground ball rate climbed to 52.7%. To top it all off, the strikeout rate was a career best, minors included.
His .372 BABIP was tops among all shortstops by a large margin (Troy Tulowitski, .331), a number Bogaerts will have difficulty maintaining. He did have 30 infield hits (1st among SS) but he isn't a blazing fast baserunner, leading me to believe regression is due. That isn't to say Bogaerts can't hit .300 again and be a useful fantasy SS. Just don't draft him anticipating a repeat of his .320 average.
Steamer has him projected at 76 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB and a .293/.343/.421 line. Bogaerts should start the year near the top of the Red Sox order. With potential rebound seasons from Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, I think he'll eclipse the projections in R/RBI numbers easily. Draft Bogaerts with confidence in 2016 after the big names are off the board.
Brandon Crawford (SF - SS)
2015 Statistics: .256/.321/.462, 65 R, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 6 SB
We all knew Crawford as an above-average defender and fringe fantasy option coming into 2015. He left the season as arguably the best fantasy shortstop in the National League. Crawford led all shortstops in RBI and was one behind Correa in the HR category, shattering preseason projections.
This was a big jump from 2014. He more than doubled his HR total from 2014 (10) and, as you may expect, saw his power (ISO) shoot up to .205 (.143 in '14). One of the big differences was Crawford's aggressiveness. He swung at pitches outside the strike zone 19.7% more often, a stat that sounds worrisome until you look into it further.
Here is Crawford's 2014 Heatmap.
Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs)
And here is 2015.
Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)
Crawford maintained the heat zones he inhabited before and expanded it to pitches below the middle of the plate. He still wasn't allowing pitches to beat him in on the hands while also displaying power to all fields. He had five opposite field home runs in 2015, in contrast to zero the year before.
Is Crawford a legitimate candidate for 20 HR again? Yes, I think he is. He battled through injuries in the second half and still managed to hit nine. But the homers are coming with an average below .250. Crawford managed to hit .256 due in large part to a fantastic May (.340 AVG). Take that month out and he hit .234. Let someone else overpay for Crawford in 2016 and try and find the next breakout shortstop (My vote: Addison Russell).
Breakout Players at C
Kyle Schwarber (CHC - C, OF)
2015 Statistics: .246/.355/.487, 52 R, 16 HR, 43 RBI, 3 SB
SCHWARBO! OK, got that out of my system. Nothing was more fun than celebrating a Schwarber homer run in 2015, and there numerous chances to do so. His 16 homers came in just 69 games, and in non-dynasty formats most owners got the power-hitting catcher for free. Finding a spot on the field became an issue when Miguel Montero returned and after watching Schwarber flail in left field in the NLCS, management must prioritize finding Schwarber a home. For us fantasy owners, all that matters is the C eligibility remains thanks to his 15 starts behind the plate.
With catcher being such a shallow spot in fantasy, Schwarber is going to be a hot fantasy commodity next year, and rightfully so. Ignore the fact his 16 HR was only 8th among catchers, unless you'll acknowledge he did so in 200 less AB. Do pay attention to the .241 ISO (1st) and the keen plate discipline (13.2 BB% - 1st). Schwarber is the only catcher with a legitimate shot to eclipse 30 HR. If the Cubs let him play everyday, then 40 homers are within reach. Add in the OBP bonus for 6x6 leagues, and we have a top 60 pick. You want to take Buster Posey first, go ahead, just don't be foolish and grab Carlos Santana over Schwarbo.
Stephen Vogt (OAK - C, 1B, OF)
2015 Statistics: .261/.341/.443, 58 R, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 0 SB
Like a fine wine, it pays to be patient. Except for us it's more about catchers (and closers). Vogt was seen as an OBP play in deep leagues on draft day and ended up as the No. 8 catcher in fantasy baseball. It was Vogt's first chance at an everyday role since entering baseball in 2012 and he made the most of it, setting career highs across the board.
One of the biggest improvements was the walk rate. His 11.0% BB rate was 2nd among catchers (Schwarber) and more in line with his minor league track record. The 18 home runs shouldn't come as a complete shock; he did hit nine in 287 AB in 2014. It should be noted 11 came in the first two months.
The case against Vogt replicating his 2015 success lies in his monthly splits. He hit .217 with only four homers in an injury-plagued second half. It's tough to trust Vogt to duplicate his numbers, and in 5x5 formats where his OBP is null and void, he's outside the top-10 for 2016.
J.T. Realmuto (MIA - C)
2015 Statistics: .259/.290/.406, 49 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 8 SB
Quick Quiz: Who led all catchers in steals in 2015? It was our next breakout subject, Realmuto. In his first full season of action (only 11 games in 2014) he became one of the few bright spots on the Miami Marlins.
Realmuto really came alive to end the year - he hit .338 with three HR, eight RBI, and two SB in the month of September. I try not get overly excited about players finishing strong but in the case of young players it can be a sign of positive adjustments. The plate discipline is still very poor here. His .290 OBP and 4.9% walk rate were both third worst among catchers last season, severely hindering his potential in 6x6 formats.
The biggest plus for Realmuto is the power/speed combo as he heads to 2016. I believe J.T. Realmuto will be the only catcher to post a 10/10 season. He had 18 steals in 2014 for the AA-Club and he should eclipse double digits in HR again. In standard formats, Realmuto will likely go after the top-10 catchers are off the board. But NL-Only owners should prioritize the Marlins catcher and let opponents overpay for the likes of Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos.
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