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With the 2022 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, it's time to think about how various rookies are going to fit with their new teams.
The Jets were the first team to draft a running back in 2022, using the 36th overall pick on Iowa State running back Breece Hall.
Hall was universally acknowledged as the top rookie when it came to fantasy before he was drafted, but that whole idea of ranking rookies before we know team contexts is weird, right? How should we view Breece Hall now, as he heads into his first season as a member of the Jets?
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Breece Hall College Production
Breece Hall played three seasons in Ames. As a freshman, he had 186 carries for 897 yards and nine touchdowns, plus 23 catches for 252 yards and a score. It was a foreshadowing of big things to come for the 6-1 back from Wichita.
In 2020, Hall carried the rock 279 times, finishing with 1,572 yards and 21 rushing scores, plus 23 catches for 180 and two TDs. He followed that up in 2021 with 253 carries for 1,472 yards and 20 touchdowns with 20 catches for 302 yards and three scores.
Of course, volume definitely contributed to that. He led the NCAA in rushing attempts in 2020, which is part of why he also led the NCAA in rushing yards and was fourth in rushing yards that year. Still, he was fourth in the Big 12 that year in yards per carry at 5.6, so it's not like Hall was plodding his way to big numbers at, like, 3.5 yards per carry or anything.
Breece Hall's Measurables
Per MockDraftable, Hall has a few measurables that look really good:
The 40-yard dash and the vertical jump in particular are really intriguing. Among this year's RB class, Hall had the sixth-best 40-yard dash at 4.39 seconds and the best vertical jump at 40''. Second in the vertical jump was Kevin Harris at 38.5''.
That vertical number is intriguing. Hall was a good receiving back in college and with those kind of hops he can be dangerous in the NFL. Only two wide receivers had the same or a better vertical than Hall. It'll be interesting to see if the Jets use his leaping ability by shifting him out of the backfield at times, and by working on getting the ball to him in the red zone. He wasn't a great route runner in college, but he has the measurables of someone who could impact the game in the pass game.
Hall doesn't measure ideally in height and weight, but the other things make me feel good.
Breece Hall's Strengths and Weaknesses
Looking specifically at Hall's game, there are a lot of positives.
Hall has a lot of patience as a runner and uses that patience to find his spots and then make things happen in those spots:
On this play, Baylor's defense really clogs up the middle of the field. It looks like the initial plan is for Hall to hit a small hole there in the center, but he's able to look around and see a lot more space has opened up over on the left side. Hall slows down, waits for a block and then hits the edge, getting around the defense and then scooting down the field for a huge gain.
Another impressive thing is his ability to make cuts:
Like...how does he do that? How is he not taken down really early in this play?
As for negatives, there's definitely some concern that despite his good metrics, Hall's lack of route running prowess will prevent him from making the kind of impact in the passing game that he should make. It's a fair concern and we won't really know the answer to this until we see Hall running routes in a game.
And while Hall has a lot of speed, he didn't always show that speed on every play. Maybe part of that was that he was getting used too much in college? That heavy workload is also a concern...but it's more of a longterm concern for dynasty managers than it is for 2022 Breece Hall.
Breece Hall's Fit With The Jets
Landing spot matters in fantasy football, and Hall landing with the Jets wasn't ideal. The Jets already have a young running back in Michael Carter, but obviously felt adding Hall would improve the running back situation for the team. They were right: I like Carter, but Hall's clearly got more upside.
Per PlayerProfiler, Carter was 37th in true yards carry last year, but isolating his receiving numbers, you find some positives: 14th among RBs in target share and eighth in yards per reception. Carter might siphon off some of Hall's receiving work early on, but Hall should see early down work for the Jets.
Then there's the question about how the Jets offense as a whole works. Last season, no team had fewer rushing attempts, with the Jets having just 380 of them. Of course, the Jets went through a coaching change this offseason, so we can't really hold last year's playcalling against them. New offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur was with the 49ers the last few years, where he was the passing game coordinator in a run-heavy offense.
LaFleur's hire implies to me that the Jets wanted an OC who could help quarterback Zach Wilson grow, but who also brought a run-centric offense that could take pressure off Wilson. So, that's good for Hall. What's not good with Hall is the fact that rushing attempts correlate with winning. Last year, six teams won five or fewer games. Of those teams, two finished in the bottom three in rushing attempts. None of them ranked in the top 10 in rushing attempts.
Why is this? Because when you have the lead, running the ball runs the clock and helps you secure the win. So while the Jets should run more, the offense won't suddenly jump into 49ers territory in terms of rushing attempts unless Wilson takes some kind of huge leap forward.
Breece Hall Fantasy Football Outlook
So, what should we expect from Hall in fantasy this year?
There were some obviously better landing spots, like Buffalo. However, the Jets don't have a locked-in starter at the position, so while Michael Carter will get some work, Hall has a real shot to be the No. 1 guy right off the bat. While Hall could have a high snap rate, he'll also be running on a bad offense. Say it with me: it's hard to trust running backs on bad offenses!
So while Hall might be on the floor enough to be a borderline RB1, the offense he'll be in knocks him down to mid-RB2 territory. He'll have plenty of flashes, but there will be weeks where the Jets offense just struggles too much and Hall only gets a handful of touches.
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