RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~28 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~38
ANALYSIS:
Draft capital speaks volumes. As well as Carter played as a rookie, at the end of the day, he was a fourth-round pick and those players are always at risk of being upgraded.
We know Hall is going to handle the vast majority of early-down and short-yardage situations in New York. Given his size and rushing pedigree from Iowa State, that seems like a given. He’s fresh off of back-to-back 1,400 rushing seasons and a total of 41 touchdowns. Hall is an elite athlete with the size to handle goal-to-go situations and the speed to hit the home run.
As far as rushing the football, Hall can do it all and for the Jets, based on the investment they just made in him, fantasy managers should absolutely expect that. The Jets' upper management indicated Hall was a top-20 player on their board, so yeah, they really like him.
Fantasy managers may be expecting Carter to still be the pass-catching back even with Hall in town and that is possible, but he wasn’t even the undisputed pass-catcher last season. No, Carter and Ty Johnson pretty much split the passing-down work right down the middle.
They each finished with 55 targets, although Johnson was the one who finished with more yards and routes run. Maybe the more interesting tidbit is that in three years at Iowa State, Hall actually has more receptions and receiving yards than Carter had in four years at North Carolina.
If Hall is able to acclimate to pass protection schemes as a rookie, he could very well be the Jets’ three-down back by midseason.
At worst, Hall should see a role similar to Antonio Gibson in Washington. He’ll be the primary rusher, the goal-line back, and he’ll mix in a few targets as well. Gibson finished as the RB18 in half-PPR PPG last season and the Jets’ offense looks like it’s ready to take off if Zach Wilson can take a step forward in Year Two.
At best though, Hall could do to Michael Carter what Jonathan Taylor did to Nyheim Hines. It is within Hall’s range of outcomes that he pushes Carter to the bench and makes him nothing more than a backup as opposed to the change of pace he’s currently viewed as right now.
Out of all the rookies selected, Hall has the best possibility of finishing in the top-24 this season and it's fairly close to "lock" status.
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