RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~170 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~181
Even though getting 10+ points per game from your defense is beneficial, we still don't want to reach and draft a D/ST early in our fantasy drafts. While some defenses like the Ravens, Steelers, and Bears have proven to be season-long holds in years past, you're far more likely to stream defenses each week. With that in mind, I'm going to focus on my D/ST's on teams with strong defensive talent as well as their early-season schedules.
I've created a D/ST Rankings metric that weighs together all of the stats I've come to believe are most important for determining if a defense will be a strong fantasy unit: pressure rate, sacks, quarterback hurries, drives ending in a turnover, drives ending in an offensive score, and yards allowed per play.
ANALYSIS:
You might call me a homer, but I'm still going to stick with this pick. The Bills finished as the 14th-ranked defense by my formula last year and a big factor in that was them being 15th in sacks and 23rd in pressure rate. As we saw against the Chiefs in the postseason, they simply couldn't get after the quarterback consistently enough. However, the Bills also understood that and spent their first two draft picks on defensive ends Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham to give them depth on the edges. With Jerry Hughes coming back and last year's top pick A.J. Epenesa reportedly taking clear steps forward in training camp, I think we'll see a massive improvement from the Bills' defensive line this year.
That should also hold true in the running game where the Bills will still have Vernon Butler and Ed Oliver but will also welcome back space-eater Star Lotulelei, who sat out all of 2020. With Lotulelei occupying multiple blockers, Oliver should face one-on-one blocks on most snaps, which is a recipe for success for the athletic third-year player. The added security and depth upfront will allow the Bills to do what they do best: create turnovers. They finished second in the NFL in drives that ended in an offensive turnover and figure to be equally as adept this year considering they were able to bring back their entire starting defense from 2020. They have another tough first matchup, but I love the three games after that.
EARLY SCHEDULE: vs Steelers, @ Dolphins, vs Washington, vs Texans
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