RADIO
Each NFL offseason is ripe with changes that impact the fantasy value of various players. Whether it's the player's team changing or the player changing teams, there are many things that can affect a player's season outlook that have nothing to do with his actual ability.
Opportunity is one of the most important factors in player assessment for fantasy purposes. Targets are the lifeblood of a receiver's value in fantasy football, especially in PPR leagues. For that reason, we need to dig deeper than simply looking at receptions and yards to find value in fantasy drafts.
Here are several players poised for an increase in team target share and, consequently, fantasy value.
Bull Market
Cameron Meredith, Chicago Bears
After barely playing as a rookie, Meredith saw 104 targets in his breakout 2016. That is set to rise again for a few reasons. First, there's the obvious one - the departure of Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery leaves behind 92 targets from a season where he only played 12 games. Next, there's the fact that Meredith is entering 2017 as the team's clear number one receiver. He only saw 104 targets last year, good for 18.34% of the team's total targets. During the peak of Jeffery's dominance, he commanded as much as 25% of the team's targets. It's entirely plausible that Meredith sees a similar amount...because of the last reason - Kevin White just can't stay healthy. If White gets hurt again, that leaves the Bears with a dealer's choice of Kendall Wright, Markus Wheaton, and Victor Cruz as the receiver opposite Meredith. Those factors along with Meredith's elite measurables and high ability make him one of my favorite picks in the 8th round, where he's currently being drafted outside the top 36 receivers, behind guys like DeVante Parker, DeSean Jackson, and Randall Cobb, which I cannot and will not ever understand.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
One of my favorite picks for this season despite the mainstream's rejection of him is Tyreek Hill. Every time I hear someone disparage him, it's the same thoughtless crutch arguments. "He's a gadget player." "He's Tavon Austin on a better team." "He can't possibly keep up his efficiency." I have had numerous discussions, listened to multiple podcasts, and read various articles on why Hill is a regression candidate. Not a single one of them mentioned the fact that Hill played on 40% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps last season. Why is everyone ignoring this fact? 40%! He saw 15.47% of the targets last year, which totaled 84. With Maclin gone and Andy Reid's endorsement of Hill as the top receiver, his snap count should at least double. Just about every other team's number one receiver plays around 85-90% of the offensive snaps. There's no reason Hill can't see 130 targets this year. Many fantasy pundits think Hill's 2016 was his ceiling. I honestly believe it's his floor. Unless he gets hurt, which given his small frame, is always a risk, Hill is almost certain to outperform his WR22 ADP.
Willie Snead, New Orleans Saints
There's nothing special about the man I call Fast Willie Snead. He's not particularly fast at all. His metrics project him as one of the worst players in the NFL. But the man just has a knack for playing wide receiver. He's not going to wow you with his route running and he's not going to wow you after the catch. He's going to be where he needs to be and he's going to catch the football. Michael Thomas is being drafted a full four rounds ahead of Snead. Thomas is not 23 receivers better than Snead - at least not in fantasy. Brandin Cooks leaves behind 119 targets that are not all going to Thomas. After seeing 125 targets in 2016, there aren't many more available for Thomas to handle. Not on a Drew Brees spread the ball around offense. Snead, however, could definitely see a bump from the 105 targets he saw last year. While the Saints are trying to run the ball more, that may not be possible with their porous defense. It wouldn't surprise me if Thomas saw 150 targets while Snead saw around 140. That would be about a two target per game increase for Snead. That's an extra catch per game and using his 8.6 yards per target (more conservative than his 12.4 yards per reception), that's almost an extra two fantasy points per game. Snead is a great option as your third receiver/flex guy.
Quincy Enunwa, New York Jets
Quincy Enunwa might see 150+ targets this year. The Jets don't have anyone else. Robby Anderson is the presumptive number two, but he may lose his job or possibly get cut (I don't think the latter will happen though) as a result of his May arrest. There's also the aura of rookie Ardarius Stewart looming overhead. Enunwa, however, is the clear top option in the passing game. After his 106 targets in 2016, good for 19.31% of the team's total targets, he should absorb a good chunk of Brandon Marshall's 132 vacated targets. As we just saw with Willie Snead, an extra couple targets a game could go a long way in fantasy. If Enunwa sees a three target bump, based on his 1.61 fantasy points per target, that's almost an extra five fantasy points per game. Obviously we can't just blanket assign him an extra five points, but the purpose is more to demonstrate the upside, which, for some reason, is not being acknowledged by mock drafters. Enunwa's ADP is at the end of the ninth round as the WR44. He's going behind Corey Davis! What are people doing? This is a team's number one receiver we're talking about. I know the Jets are going to be terrible, but that's not necessarily bad for fantasy. Enunwa is all but certain to return WR3 value or better and he's barely a WR4 right now.
