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You have questions and that's only natural. Inquiring minds want to know what the upcoming football season has in store. There won't be as much uncertainty surrounding the 2021 NFL season as there was in 2020 but there are always questions burning in the back of our minds.
Fantasy football is filled with even more uncertainty. Every week brings a new challenge with the goal of producing the highest-scoring team possible.
Before we kick off the season, let's address a few of the most pressing questions on everyone's minds.
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Who Is This Year's Breakout QB?
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes... It seems like every year there's a young signal-caller who is drafted in the mid-to-late rounds that emerges to the throne as QB1 in fantasy. Let's not forget Justin Herbert who was barely drafted anywhere and finished as QB6 last season too.
The smart money this year is on either Jalen Hurts or Tua Tagovailoa. While it's tempting to go with a rookie like Justin Fields or Trey Lance, we don't rightfully know when they'll take the reins, how long of a leash they'll get, and how quickly they'll acclimate to the league. More likely, a second-year QB with knowledge of the playbook (yes, that includes Tua) and something to prove will step up.
Both Hurts and Tagovailoa have plenty in common besides the fact they went to Alabama. They are second-year players in new offensive systems. The Eagles have a new head coach in Nick Sirianni, who served as Colts OC the last three years. They also have a new offensive coordinator in Shane Steichen who was OC for the Chargers last year and oversaw the rapid development of Justin Herbert. As far as the Dolphins, they retain head coach Brian Flores but bring in new offensive co-coordinators to replace Chan Gailey and his antiquated system. The Miami offense will cater to Tagovailoa's strengths and that will include the deep ball when pertinent.
The Eagles and Dolphins both upgraded abysmal receiving corps by drafting a wideout in the top-10. Not coincidentally, each was also a member of the Crimson Tide and former teammate of their new QB. Additionally, the Dolphins added Will Fuller and regain the services of Albert Wilson while the Eagles are counting on emergencies from second-year receivers Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins.
It helps that neither QB has to worry about those persistent Deshaun Watson rumors anymore either. See below for more on that topic.
Hurts brings the higher ceiling due to his rushing ability and propensity to take shots deep while Tagovailoa's accuracy and newfound wealth of weapons on offense makes for a nice weekly floor. Both could take huge leaps in 2021.
Which Second-Year RB Will Stand Above the Rest?
Sadly, the field has been narrowed already with the loss of Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins for the season. That leaves Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and D'Andre Swift.
Taylor is the one with the highest draft capital as he's the ninth overall pick on average according to ADP consensus heading into the final days of draft season. It's warranted after the finished last season where he rattled off 130 rushing yards per game over the last five contests. The catch is that four of those games came against teams with losing records, including two versus Houston and a meaningless Week 17 contest against the 1-15 Jaguars. Even with his late-season rushing success, he only averaged two receptions and less than 20 receiving yards per game. He's adequate as a pass-catcher but teammate Nyheim Hines was the highest-rated receiving among all running backs at 91.7 in 2020. Taylor has a huge weekly ceiling but might be scripted out of games on occasion.
Gibson isn't without risk either. He was battling turf toe late last season and it was recently revealed he had offseason foot surgery. This is a good thing, though. Whereas Michael Thomas sat on his injury and waited until late in the preseason to address his ankle, Gibson should be 100% ready for Week 1 and could be stronger than last year. Plus, his sights are set high which should please fantasy managers. He recently stated that his goal is to achieve 2,000 scrimmage yards and 12+ touchdowns on the year. With more third-down work as a receiver and no Peyton Barber to vulture touchdowns, I actually think those goals are achievable.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a draft darling because he was hand-picked by Pat Mahomes and was in a dream situation for a skill player. Turns out not every Chief is fantasy-relevant after all. Edwards-Helaire was decent, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and accumulating 1,100 scrimmage yards by season's end. He simply wasn't worth a first or second-round pick. At an ADP of 22 overall, there's not much of a discount to find out if year two is better. The issue wasn't performance so much as opportunity, so it's up to Andy Reid.
In the case of D'Andre Swift, his team context couldn't get much worse. Detroit is projected to be the second-worst team in the NFL behind only Houston. The Lions had the fourth-lowest rushing play percentage in 2020 at 37% and they were under 40% in 2019 as well. Some will argue that Matthew Stafford being gone will change that but quarterbacks don't call the plays, coaches do. This is a team that won't necessarily have the luxury of feeding their running backs, of which there are two. Jamaal Williams will again curse fantasy managers by playing a bigger role than we'd like, limiting Swift's upside. Swift is a talented player but one in a bad situation.
All of these running backs could be mainstays in fantasy lineups but while I'm skeptical on CEH and avoiding Swift (for now), I view Taylor as a low-end RB1 and Gibson as the breakout candidate who will turn out to be the best draft value.
What's the Jacksonville Offense Going to Look Like and Who's the WR1?
Contrary to prevailing opinion, it might still run through James Robinson again. Slander Coach Urban Meyer all you want (I'll be right there with you) but he's at least smart enough to know that he can't rely on Trevor Lawrence alone to carry the offense. He said it himself right after the NFL Draft: “The best thing you can do for a young quarterback is being able to run the ball.” Without Travis Etienne, that means a whole lot of J-Rob.
That's not to say Trevor Lawrence will be kept on a leash. Lawrence was the unanimous No. 1 overall pick for the past three years, just biding time until he was NFL-ready. The Jags may not be one of the highest-volume passing attacks but Lawrence will use his legs and arm talent efficiently enough to finish as a top-10 fantasy QB. No learning curve required.
QB1 for the @Jaguars showed out all preseason. ? @Trevorlawrencee pic.twitter.com/JxrR62cak1
— NFL (@NFL) September 2, 2021
Based on the philosophy of OC Darren Bevell, expect a lot of play-action and deep shots mixed in with a conservative short passing game. That seems to favor Laviska Shenault Jr. Last year's second-round pick, Shenault is a bigger version of Deebo Samuel who will have a low aDOT but high YAC totals. In full PPR, targets are the stat to chase. D.J. Chark has been slowed by injury during the preseason so he may need time to develop chemistry. Marvin Jones will play deep threat and has the most experience in this group but tends to fade when other receivers are in his way and he's not "the guy." The best pick of the bunch for fantasy, again assuming full PPR scoring, is Shenault.
What Should We Expect from Aaron Rodgers and the Packers Offense?
Regression, as in the negative kind. Rodgers led the league last year in too many passing categories to name. Chief among them were Passing TD (48), Completion Percentage (70.7%), and Adjusted Yards per Attempt (9.6). His league-best 1.0% INT% was actually worse than the past two years when it was at 0.7% and 0.3% so there's no reason to think he'll turn it over more. His 9.1% TD% is something to examine, though. Only one other time in his long career has he reached the 9% mark, back in 2011. The following year it dropped to 7.1% which meant six fewer touchdowns. His yardage also dropped by 41.9 yards per game that season.
With largely the same supporting cast and even some additions to the WR corps in rookie Amari Rodgers and BFF Randall Cobb, why should Rodgers regress? That's how these things work. Touchdown rates don't remain static and will fluctuate based on any number of factors. One of those factors is strength of schedule and FantasyPros projects Green Bay to have one of the toughest schedules for QBs, matched only by Seattle.
It could be a slight decline but even a few touchdowns less makes a difference for a non-running quarterback. Davante Adams is almost sure to score fewer than 18 touchdowns too, which is why he's not my WR1 in fantasy this year (find out who it is here). Rodgers still should rank as a top-10 QB and weekly starter but it would be foolish to assume he's going to feast like last year.
Is Kyle Pitts a Top-Five Tight End?
Those who chose to roster him better hope so because if not, it will take a toll. He was selected as the TE4 on average and a top-50 overall pick in PPR drafts. The equivalent to that in 2020 was Logan Thomas who caught 72 balls for 670 yards and six touchdowns. Conventional wisdom is that Kyle Pitts is better than Thomas athletically and will be featured more so he can exceed those numbers. Can he really?
The rookie record for receiving yards by a tight end is held by none other than Mike Ditka. He accumulated 1,076 receiving yards in 14 games back in 1961. Beyond that, only five other rookie TEs have ever exceeded the 700-yard mark. Like, ever.
There is a Julio Jones-sized hole in the offense that vacates a ton of targets but those will not all go to Pitts. The best-case scenario is that he does what Evan Engram did a few years ago and just barely delivers a positive return on investment for his draft capital. The difference is that Engram was 23 years old and had four years of college experience under his belt when he entered the NFL. When the season kicks off, Pitts will still be just 20 years old. That's not a big deal for a running back but it's rare to see tight ends make a splash in year one.
It is definitely achievable for Pitts to outperform the likes of Mark Andrews or T.J. Hockenson and enter the top-five at his position but it's definitely on the optimistic side. I'll take the under on receiving yards and project Pitts to finish closer to TE8 with 677 yards.
Does Deshaun Watson Play This Season? If So, For Who?
I have no idea and neither does anyone else. The latest rumor is that the case will ultimately be presented to a grand jury but not until after a thorough investigation has been completed. Official word: “As with any allegation, the Houston Police Department is now conducting an investigation and will not comment further during the investigative process.”
Good luck trying to guess what the timeline is for that process to finish. The NFL has thrown its hands up in the air and said they have no comment or intention to intervene until the investigation is done.
Andrew Brandt of SI.com put things into perspective quite succinctly:
"Star players such as Ben Roethlisberger and Ezekiel Elliott received six-game suspensions for sexual or domestic misconduct with one woman and no criminal charges. Watson has 22 civil suits alleging sexual misconduct and multiple criminal complaints against him."
In the meantime, Watson is not suspended and is part of the Texans' active roster but will not play. Trade rumors have amounted to nothing and it would be extremely far-fetched to imagine any team trading for Watson at this point, especially given Houston's reported demand for three first-round picks. The likelihood of Watson suiting up for anyone this season is getting closer to zero with each passing day.
How Is a 17-Game Season Going to Affect Fantasy Football?
It won't, at least not much. Initial concerns that teams might go even further to a running-back-by-committee approach are unwarranted. The teams that were already rolling with the RBBC approach will continue to do so. That's a trend that has been increasing for years before the new schedule was announced. When it comes to crunch time in the latter portion of the season, teams jockeying for playoff position will lean on their starters as usual. It's not as if we'll see star players being rested in Week 16 and 17 for the postseason.
We will have to learn to think differently in terms of statistical outcomes over the course of a season. The 1000-yard threshold is a common benchmark used to quantify a running back or receiver's production. Over 16 games that's a pace of 62.5 yards per game but now it's down to 58.8 Y/G instead. Not a huge difference but it will lower the bar a bit. In 2020, there were 26 players who averaged at least 62.5 receiving yards per game but 31 who averaged 58.8 or more.
We could also see some season-long records broken. Maybe this is the year someone like Dalvin Cook surpasses Eric Dickerson's 2,105 rushing yards or Matthew Stafford breaks the passing record set by Peyton Manning with 5,477 yards. Unlike the national past time, there won't be any asterisks by them either.
The main takeaway from the 17-game schedule is that we get more football! No more .500 seasons either now that there's an odd number of games.
Oh, and nobody will ever be able to replicate Jeff Fisher again.
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