RADIO
Two out of three on the sell side last week. While Felix Hernandez had his way with the Blue Jays, Yovani Gallardo couldn't solve the Angels and Brett Anderson shocked the world by getting hurt.
A rough go of things otherwise, as all three buys were all knocked around in their starts despite typically excellent strikeout and walk numbers. Those metrics are obviously the best place to start when analyzing and predicting pitcher performance, but it's also important to remember that context matters. Matchups, park, team defense - these aren't within the sphere of a pitcher's control, but they do affect results. Still, your best play is to trust talent to win out.
Starting Pitcher Buys
Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
Ross's last turn against the Marlins resulted in a loss, but it continued an encouraging trend of improved control. Over his last 21 innings, he has walked just four batters. Considering his season rate is around four per nine, that constitutes serious progress. He's also maintained his strikeout rate and remained stingy with the homers (in direct contrast to gopheritis-afflicted teammates Ian Kennedy and James Shields) thanks to a ridiculous 63.3 GB%. Ross has been difficult to own this year, yet he still owns a playable 3.45 ERA. He can't do much to improve his teammates' fielding, but limiting the free passes going forward should help him lower that number even further.
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
In what should be his final game in a Phillies uniform, Hamels was nothing short of magnificent, allowing two walks to Dexter Fowler and exactly nothing else. He fanned 13 hitters in the no-no, arguably making the finest performance this year by a pitcher not named Max Scherzer. From standpoint of the beleaguered Phillies' front office, this couldn't have come at a better time. However, Hamels did allow some crooked numbers over the previous month, leading many owners to bench him for his spectacular swan song. If the Hamels owner in your league did that, odds are he may be frustrated enough to deal the ace for less than he's worth.
Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins
Yes, Gibson has been shelled in each of his last two starts. His overall numbers, ERA aside, aren't especially impressive either. But the second-year righty has improved each month and an ugly April is still dragging down his season line. In his five starts prior to last week's pair of clunkers, Gibson posted a 1.71 ERA and struck out nearly a batter per inning. Those performances came against some pretty solid offenses. Gibson may never be a star, but he's been quite useful recently and is available on the wire in about two-thirds of Yahoo leagues.
Starting Pitcher Sells
Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
By traditional measures, Duffy had an excellent July. His team won three of his four starts, in which he allowed only four runs. You might suggest to another owner that, given Duffy's similarly sparkling 2.53 ERA in a full season last year, this is the lefty rounding into form. Of course, if you do that, you'll have to omit the fact that in those four starts, he struck out only eight batters. A well-regarded prospect who posted gaudy strikeout numbers at every stop in the minors, Duffy simply hasn't been able to translate that success to the majors.
Chris Heston, San Francisco Giants
Another year, another success story for the Giants and pitching coach/wizard Dave Righetti. Heston doesn't blow hitters away, but he exhibits good command and keeps the ball on the ground. There's nothing particularly anomalous about his success this year, as his ERA and FIP sit at identical 3.18 marks. In the past month, however, he's posted a Greinke-like 1.32 ERA despite actually pitching worse than earlier in the year by essentially any other measure. You know what that means - unsustainable batted ball luck! Heston likely won't fetch a huge return on his own, but could certainly prove valuable as a sweetener in a package deal.
Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels
So far, Heaney's second taste of big league action has gone a lot better than his first. The lefty is a perfect 5-0 with a slim 1.79 ERA through his first six starts, helping the Angels surge into the AL West divison lead. Unfortunately, this level of success seems unlikely to continue. All of the usual indicators are flashing red - a BABIP in the .220 range despite lots of line drives and hard contact allowed, plus a strand rate above 90 percent. Heaney has exhibited impeccable control, but nothing in his track record suggests he can maintain it. Dealing him now means selling at apex value.
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