Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~130

CURRENT ADP: ~157 overall

ANALYSIS: Since Buxton only had 94 plate appearances in 2018, we’ll compare his 2017 and 2019 seasons. As you can see in the chart, Buxton began to hit the ball much harder, with a 2.7% increase in Brl%. He also began to hit the ball in the air more frequently, trimming his GB% by 13% and increasing his launch angle by 7.7 degrees. This explains why he was able to hit 10 HR in 295 PA this past season, after only hitting 16 HR in 511 PA back in 2017. It was also encouraging to see how Buxton lowered his K% by 6.3%, as he was able to make contact on zone pitches more often - his Z-Contact% increased by 3.8%. Buxton finished 2019 with a .262 BA/.314 OBP/.513 SLG slash, 10 HR, and 14 SB in only 295 PA. It’s likely that he would have finished as a 20/20 hitter last year had he stayed healthy.

Now entering his age-26 season, Buxton has a chance at a career year in a shortened season. He will likely remain in the nine-hole, but the Twins have one of the best lineups in baseball, so this won’t impact his value too much. Hitting at the bottom of the order will provide more stolen base opportunities, and there’s always a chance that sustained periods of strong performance could bump him up in the lineup to a more favorable position. Buxton had shoulder surgery in September, but the long layoff should allow him to heal and be ready to make an impact for your fantasy team.

A projected pace of .260 BA, 77 R, 23 HR, 75 RBI, and 14 SB would give Buxton an Expected Draft Value of 108.8, which is 49 picks earlier than his current 157.63 NFBC ADP. Fourteen stolen bases is a conservative projection for Buxton, so it’s likely that he returns even more value should he stay healthy.