C.J. Cron (1B, DET) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 210

CURRENT ADP: ~247 overall

ANALYSIS:

Cron's 2019 season was a tale of two seasons. Cron battled thumb injuries that resulted in two injured list stints. The first trip was on July 6 and the other on July 21. The stats before and after his first IL stint show differing approaches at the plate, as well as some overall power decline.

In Cron's 331 plate appearances before the first thumb injury, he showcased some great power. A .341 wOBA, .229 ISO, and 112 wRC+ are all above-average and pretty solid. The dips after the thumb injuries, especially an 80 wRC+, was really bad. It was not just the power that dropped off, but the plate discipline. The 6.3% increase in strikeout rate really hindered the chances of Cron being productive at the plate. Even with the thumb injuries, Cron finished with 25 home runs in 125 games. He is just a year removed from his first full-time role, where he played in 140 games and hit 30 home runs.

Cron has shown an increase in his barrel rate for three-straight seasons. His hard-hit rate and xWOBACON are well above average. His power translates even more when looking at his pull rate. As we know, pulled hard-hit balls/barrels are the best form of batted balls for home runs. Cron pulled the ball 38.2% of the time last season and is one season removed from a 43.5% pull rate. It isn't all about elite power skills from Cron. His plate discipline has improved the last few seasons. His chase rate has dropped for five-straight seasons, and it now sits at 32.4%. Also, his strikeout rate dropped from 25.9% to 21.6% in 2019.

Cron has proven year after year that he is an overlooked power machine. He is moving to Comerica Park that has a reputation for being a massive pitcher park, but that is not completely true. If you pull the ball in Comerica, there is a lot of potential for power, and luckily Cron pulls with power well. Last year he split some time with Mitch Garver at first base but now appears to be the lone ranger at first base for the Tigers. The projection systems foresee Cron flexing his muscle once again to the tune of 28+ home runs and a .260 average. He is currently projected to hit cleanup, which makes him a huge value at his current ADP.