RADIO
On Monday, the NFL announced that Calvin Ridley was going to be suspended for at least a year after betting on NFL games. The bets took place while he was away from the team, but while Ridley wasn't actively betting on games that he was playing in, he was still breaking league rules.
Now that Ridley — who missed most of 2021 after stepping away from the league for mental health reasons — is out for the 2022 season, where does that leave fantasy managers?
Let's look at Ridley's value going forward, plus what to expect out of the Falcons this season when it comes to fantasy.
Calvin Ridley's Dynasty Value
Yes, this is the time to "buy low" on Calvin Ridley, but it's also the time to really think about what "buy low" means.
Ridley barely played last year. He won't play in 2022 and there's no guarantee that he plays in 2023, since the suspension is indefinite. It'll more than likely be lifted by then, but then you'll be looking at a guy who is 1.5 seasons removed from his last NFL action.
What I'm saying is that I don't want to give up a ton for Ridley.
Ridley's numbers in 2021 weren't great. He averaged 56.2 yards per game, down from 91.6 in 2020. He averaged 9.1 yards per reception, down from 15.3. He actually averaged more receptions per game, but the new version of the Falcons offense without Julio Jones meant Ridley was being used in shorter situations. Per PlayerProfiler, his aDOT of 9.9 last year ranked 62nd in the league, compared to a 14.4 aDOT in 2020, which was 11th.
When it comes to the eye test, Ridley just didn't really look right. The speed wasn't there, especially in the open field. He had 97 yards after the catch. This all feels like a complicated picture. His numbers were down, but a big part of that was how the offense was run. His catch rate was down, but he also didn't see the most accurate targets. In the right situation, Ridley can still be good, like he was in 2020.
Will that situation materialize? If he's not in Atlanta in 2023, where will he be? Changing teams while attempting to come back to the league is going to be tough. And while I'm not one of those "ALL THAT MATTERS IS AGE" kind of fantasy players, it's worth noting that Ridley will be 28 when the 2023 season starts and will turn 29 in December of that season. He's at the point where he should be having his best seasons and instead his entire future is just a ton of uncertainty.
Which is to say that while Ridley could still be an elite receiver, I'm not trading for him in dynasty like he'll be one. Maybe I'd give up a late second for him? He's someone a rebuilding team could use, but not if it requires giving up a pick that could become something valuable. Weigh the risk yourself, but there are at least seven 2022 rookie wide receivers — depending on landing spot, of course — that I'd rather have that Ridley right now.
The 2022 Falcons Receiving Corps
Ridley's suspension doesn't change much when it comes to how I'm projecting the 2022 Falcons, in large part because I didn't foresee Ridley being back in Atlanta. After how 2021 ended, Ridley's future in Atlanta felt untenable.
Still, this news gives us our opportunity to talk about this receiving unit, which is...not great.
Yep, the only receivers actually under contract next season and Frank Darby and Austin Trammel. Darby had one catch for 14 yards last season. Trammel didn't even play an offensive snap.
Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus could both be back on cheap deals, especially with Zaccheaus being a restricted free agent. We saw this season that those guys aren't going to light the world on fire with Ridley out, but they theoretically have value.
Per RotoViz, Gage averged 14.68 PPR points per game in the 10 games Ridley didn't play. That's right around what guys like DeAndre Hopkins, CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks averaged in points per game. Gage can be solid in that role.
Zaccheus wasn't much a factor regardless of Ridley's status, averaging 5.3 PPR points per game when he played and 6.24 per game when he didn't. Gage ideally is the No. 2 wide receiver on this team and Zaccheus is a depth piece. Who could be the No. 1 receiver?
The Falcons could look to free agency, where young guys like Christian Kirk, JuJu Smith-Schuster and D.J. Chark are sitting. They'd be fun with Matt Ryan throwing them the ball, right? There's the draft, where they won't go receiver in the first round but could go after someone like George Pickens at 43 or 58. Then there's also the fact that the Falcons already have a No. 1 receiver: he just plays tight end, officially.
Kyle Pitts. Pitts actually played worse last season from a fantasy perspective with Ridley out of the lineup, dropping to 10.03 PPR points per game from 11.64 when Ridley did play, but Pitts did have 60-plus yards in four of the final five games. His numbers were also low because he caught just one touchdown as a rookie.
What I think the splits mean for Pitts: he would thrive with a really talented guy playing on the field with him. Maybe someone like Calvin Ridley, though *points up to this whole article* that won't be happening. Like I was theorizing earlier, that already wasn't going to happen. Suspension or not, I think Ridley would have been somewhere else in 2022, and Pitts would be in this same spot where he's on the verge of a breakout but needs someone across the field to take some pressure off for it to actually happen.
Still, you'll be drafting Pitts like a top-six TE this season, with upside for more if the team can add some receiving talent, which they'll do because you don't go into the season with just Frank Darby and Austin Trammel. As for how this impacts Matt Ryan, his days as a top fantasy QB were already over. Consider him a low-end QB2.
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