Carlos Gomez (OF, TB) - 2018 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~310

CURRENT ADP: 351

ANALYSIS: After back-to-back seasons of declining numbers, Gomez quietly had somewhat of a bounce-back season in 2017 with the Rangers — putting up numbers close to those from his 2014 All-Star season. In 105 games last season, 17 home runs, 13 stolen bases and an .802 on-base plus slugging percentage. Those numbers don't necessarily make a big splash, but do make him one of 17 outfielders last year with double-digit home runs and steals and an OPS of at least .800. On top of being a part of that group, Gomez will also get a boost in AL-only leagues as he is one of only five of those outfielders who will be playing in the American League in 2018.

At this point it seems safe to say that Gomez is not going to steal 30 bases again, but instead closer to the 16 stolen bases he's averaged over the last three years. That being said, there are signs that he could increase his power output in 2018. His .462 slugging percentage was his highest since 2014 and was 78 points higher than his 2016 mark. Looking at his batted ball tendencies last season, Gomez cut back on his ground balls by five percent from 2016, while increasing his fly ball rate by five percent. Those batted ball tendencies match up almost perfectly to his 2014 season when he launched 23 home runs.

The one question mark for Gomez is his durability, as he has averaged 113 games played over the last three seasons. But seeing as he is looking at taking over as the starting right fielder in Tampa Bay — a less demanding position on his body than his typical center field gig — and he could slot in as the designated hitter on a semi-regular basis, Gomez could potentially hit 140 games played this year. That could mean 20-25 HR, 10-15 stolen bases and a .260 average for Gomez in 2018, which is worth a spot on mixed-league rosters and could make him a Top-25 or better outfielder in AL-only leagues.