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Finding the one or two rookies from each class that actual carry value is one of the best parts of fantasy basketball. Identifying them early can help you make some favorable trade offers and if you time it correctly, your team will be preparing for the playoffs only a few weeks into the season with very few inconsistencies. People love hype, and while some players have much higher ceilings based on their current situation, there is a strong case for Carsen Edwards.
In Summer League, Edwards was fantastic. He had highlight plays nearly every game, and despite not shooting incredibly efficiently, it was obvious his style of play revolves around finding the best shot. Whether it’s his already iconic pull-up or his ability to make use of his smaller stature, there is clear room for improvement in the overall efficiency of his scoring. He was taking high-quality shots and his spacing was nearly perfect throughout Summer League. He quickly took on the role as primary scorer not because he wanted to, but because it was what the team needed when he was on the court.
That type of mentality, combined with the ability to score, means that his ceiling is at a maximum based on individual potential. With the Celtics roster however, he does seem a bit capped playing behind Kemba Walker, an All-Star reflection of what Edwards could eventually become. So, what's Edwards' outlook this season?
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2019-20 Outlook - Carsen Edwards
Carsen Edwards Will Be A Focal Point Of The Celtics Offense
There is no away around it, whether he pans out or not. The Boston backcourt lacks outside scoring and looking directly at the personnel, there’s Walker, Edwards, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and then...Tremont Waters? Javonte Green? There's no bench guards with overly-convincing scoring abilities. Waters is a bit more undersized compared to Edwards, with a pass-first mentality. Green, on the other-hand, is a bigger guard with above the rim capabilities, but also isn’t a strong dribbler.
Again, all players everywhere could use work on their shooting, but based on everything we’ve seen from this grouping of players, even considering Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown being decent threats in actual high-pressure situations, it seems ridiculous to think they will take a backseat to someone like Edwards. Edwards is a Lou Williams-esque natural scorer. It is equally as crazy to think Edwards will come in and have an immediate impact like that, simply because he’s a rookie playing behind Kemba Walker, but what else can the Celtics do? Kemba can only do so much in terms of winning games and he's going to need help.
The Celtics Non-Guard Rotation's Impact On Edwards
There are plenty of mouths the Celtics needs to feed, which will cause a problem for Edwards in his overall productivity. Luckily for him, the Celtics forwards -- Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, and Jaylen Brown -- play very smart basketball. All three are more than willing to give up the ball if they should, usually to find the best shot, but their athleticism and size give them the ability to finish inside and create space for outside shooters. Not only will Edwards be able to get some easy assists by combining his speed and size combination to free up the lane, but many times the ball will find its way back to him for easy attempts, either at the rim or on the perimeter.
The Celtics star-power is what is going to fuel Edwards throughout the season. Without Kyrie Irving, the team-dynamic will shift to finding the hot hand, letting the shooters shoot, and more importantly taking good shots. Kemba Walker has made a career off creating shots for his team, and now he has a squad that is more than capable of doing that themselves. Walker and Edwards are going to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the Celtics offensive threats, but Tatum, Hayward, and Brown are going to be the brute strength and backbone that allows their Boston backcourt to run free.
Without the playmaking abilities of those three hybrid forwards, Edwards be forced into a “produce-now” / high-pressure situation his rookie year. But with them,the Celtics undersized guards get to comfortable play within their limits on both sides of the ball. Edwards is going to struggle to be consistent every night, so any time the Celtics forwards can pick up the slack, it’s going to free up not just Edwards, but any guard that is able to score on their own.
Carsen Edwards' Fantasy Value
Looking more specifically at drafting position and actual value, Edwards is going to be a mid-to-late round pick that many people are going to draft above his ADP. He has the potential to contribute in multiple categories, but a lot of that will depend on if he is efficiently scoring. Chances are he will be the first bench option for Boston with Marcus Smart likely to start.
Looking at some of the late round guard options, names like Evan Fournier, D.J. Augustin, Fred Vanvleet, and Patrick Beverley all come up frequently as players who will get the job done. I’d like to lump Edwards in with this grouping.
The chance that Edwards breaks out and produces like Trae Young or De’Aaron Fox with his current role is downright unlikely. Think of him more like a Derrick White, and if it were between White and Edwards, I’d take the chance with Edwards. Both are incredibly promising guards, and even though White is more than capable of being a high-volume scorer, that is what Edwards has built his basketball career on. I could pull stats from his college career, but the numbers I thought were most intriguing were his scoring numbers in away games.
In his 16 road games, Edwards scored 40 twice, 30 twice, and well-above 20 eight times. That means in four fewer games, on the road, Edwards only scored 33 fewer total pointsn than in home games. 442 points in home games, 409 in away games.
Take that however you want, but college players who play better on the road is exactly what I am looking for in a younger player that wants to contribute in the NBA.
Edwards undersized-ness…is going to keep him from dominating defensive stats, but it will also allow him to sit in passing lanes and contribute some steals, like most undersized guards. I would not use any picks above the 8th or 9th round, but if you need scoring and scoring specifically, there is a good chance Carsen Edwards could burst in his role within the Celtics offense and be one of the top rookie this season.
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